The rift between the Pakistani government and the regime in Afghanistan is deepening
Pakistan has decided to take a tough stance against the regime of the Afghan Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation). Islamabad will not support the Taliban internationally or provide any assistance to the regime. This decision was made after the Taliban refused to eliminate the shelters of the terrorist group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, banned in the Russian Federation) in Afghanistan. Pakistan's interim Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar accused the Taliban of harboring militants and facilitating the TTP. Kakar stated that "the level of terrorism in Pakistan has increased by 60%, and the number of suicide attacks has increased by 500%, resulting in the deaths of more than 2,300 people." He noted that of the 24 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2023, 15 were committed by Afghans.
The statement was made immediately after Pakistan's decision to expel about 1.7 million "illegal Afghan refugees" in October. Since then, 375 thousand Afghans have left the country. In fact, even those who have documents allowing them to stay in the country are deported. Most of the exiled Afghans are those who left Kabul to escape the Taliban regime. The Taliban condemned the policy of forced deportation as unfair and inhumane. Rejecting accusations of supporting the TPP, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that Kabul "is not responsible for maintaining peace in Pakistan" and that Islamabad "should solve internal security problems, not blame Afghanistan."
Pakistan's previous policy was partly based on the desire to turn the Taliban against the TPP. If this was a strategic mistake by Islamabad, then the new political course it has chosen is an even greater disaster. The decision to expel Afghan refugees will undermine the remnants of Islamabad's diplomatic influence on Kabul and exacerbate anti-Pakistani sentiments in Afghanistan. Deporting Afghans will only increase radicalization and exacerbate the problem of violence in Pakistan. A new generation of Afghans will hate Islamabad for not preventing the repressive Taliban regime from coming to power in their country in August 2021. Then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan wrote on a social network that "Afghans have broken the chain of slavery." But in two years, the initial optimism has exhausted itself. The almost daily killings of security forces in border areas have led to unprecedented pressure on the leadership of Pakistan. The Taliban's lack of cooperation, internal unrest and the deteriorating economic situation have put Islamabad between a rock and an anvil. He does not have the political and financial capacity for a large-scale military operation. In addition, the war inside Afghanistan in order to eliminate the TPP will be considered as an encroachment on the sovereignty of a neighboring country.
Ironically, Pakistan supported the Taliban by providing them with shelter and assistance after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. At that time, Islamabad pursued a threefold goal: to create a friendly regime in Kabul; to limit India's influence in Afghanistan; and to neutralize anti-Pakistani militant networks in Afghanistan. However, unfounded assumptions have backfired. The rise to power of the Taliban movement stimulated the TPP. Thousands of militants released from Bagram and Puli Charkhi prisons, as well as more than 40 extremist groups, joined its ranks. Currently, the group has, according to various estimates, from 4,000 to 6,000 fighters.
Since returning to power, the Taliban regime has not ignored Pakistan's security demands. On the contrary, the Taliban facilitated the conclusion of two short–term ceasefire agreements with the TTP in November 2021 and in June-September 2022. But these measures only gave the TPP time to regroup its forces. Islamabad's allowing some TTP fighters to secretly return to the border areas on peaceful terms turned out to be a fatal mistake. As soon as the militants returned to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the local population protested, warning the state against the devastating consequences of such a policy. Pakistani strategists should have remembered that the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Muhammad Omar, defied the United States and sacrificed his regime, but did not renounce the leader of Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) Osama bin Laden.
The TPP is an ideological continuation of the Taliban in Pakistan and seeks to create an analogue of the self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate in the country. TTP strongholds in the former federally administered tribal Territory region (now united with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) provide the Taliban with a kind of buffer zone. The group also shares the Taliban's claims in Pakistan, which is dominated by the Pashtun population. The Taliban consider the Durand Line to be a colonial relic. In their opinion, the border drawn by the British has split the Pashtun community living on both sides of it. The TTP leadership has sworn allegiance to the supreme leader of the Taliban, Haibatullah Akhundzada.
Nowadays, the Taliban is extremely cautious in matters of organizational coherence and ideological unity. Any move to expel the TPP from Afghanistan could expose and exacerbate the rift between hardliners and political pragmatists. Moreover, actions against the TPP may provoke the exodus of its fighters to the terrorist group IG Khorasan (banned in the Russian Federation), the sworn enemy of the Taliban. It seems that Pakistan was unable to foresee the consequences of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and objectively assess the depth of their ties with the TPP.
For two decades, Pakistan has supported the Taliban at the expense of its reputation and internal security. Although many called on Pakistan to indiscriminately fight religious extremists, the country maintained an unspoken division into "good" and "bad." Twenty years later, when a number of states begin to consider the possibility of contacts with the Taliban, Islamabad, on the contrary, decides to sever ties with them and take a different path.
The recent statement by Pakistan's Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, that "peace in Afghanistan has become a nightmare for Pakistan" sums up two decades of tolerance in Islamabad. The Pakistani Government no longer considers the religious aspect to be an effective tool for promoting its regional interests. But neither is the oppression of Afghan refugees. Creating an integrated counterterrorism system aimed at neutralizing extremist groups is what will really help Pakistan stabilize security tensions.
Larisa Shashok
Larisa Alexandrovna Shashok is an expert at the HSE Institute for Advanced Strategic Studies.
