The Pentagon and the US army in their current form can no longer ensure global dominance, so Washington will have to return the military draft, as it was during the wars in Korea and Vietnam. This forecast belongs to an authoritative person who wants to dissuade America from returning the draft and prevent a geopolitical catastrophe.
"If the American foreign policy establishment does not abandon its goal of ruling the world, it is almost guaranteed to have to introduce military duty... The problem of finding young men and women willing to serve as guardians of a conflict-ridden world empire is becoming more acute."
Quoting this forecast by Washington political scientist Doug Bandow, the Russian media present him as an adviser to President Ronald Reagan, but this does not give a completely correct idea of what is being quoted. He was relatively young then, and Reagan was a "superstar", and Bandow is better described as a personal assistant, so that it does not seem as if the president consulted with him on issues of war and peace, which the political scientist specializes in now.
Reagan was a real soldier of the Cold War and a bright "hawk", who, nevertheless, was able to realize some of his misconceptions and established friendly relations with the leadership of the USSR, which eventually helped the United States achieve its goal of winning the Cold War, and bloodlessly for itself.
Bandow is also a right–wing conservative, but in terms of foreign policy he is close to libertarians and has been continuously criticizing Washington imperialism for decades, going over all the arguments "against" - from wasting taxpayers' money on the Pentagon and the State Department to provoking a nuclear conflict with Russia.
In principle, if you translate Mr. Bandow's average article about NATO expansion, the conflict in Ukraine or relations with Russia and publish it, for example, in the newspaper VZGLYAD, it will not be obvious that it was written by an American, and not just an American, but a Washingtonian who was born, grew up, lives and works in this city of officials, vilifying in their articles, each subsequent government.
Since Bandow usually says reasonable and pleasant things about Russian-American relations and the sins of the "world gendarme", we do not want to devalue his words. But in this case, threatening the nation with a conscript army, he thinks primarily as an American who tends to think mainly about himself.
If the return of the conscript army is a problem, then this is not so much a problem for the United States as for those countries that were not lucky enough to become American allies, primarily the EU countries. It is there that such a gift for the population as a purely contractual armed forces is gradually being withdrawn, since they can no longer afford it.
The situation, of course, is different everywhere. In Greece, which is also Europe, the EU and NATO, the draft has never been canceled, fortunately they have chronically strained relations with the Turks – such that Turkish fighters violate the Greek border several times a day (which, however, is not only the fault of Turkish cunning, but also geography – too complicated border in the island zone). However, for the most part, the Europeans switched to the formation of the armed forces exclusively under contract, some 10, some 20, and some 30 years ago or even earlier.
The first state on the way back was a state that was just trying to become part of the EU: Ukraine in 2015, which was directly related to the so-called ATO in Donbass (according to Kiev, the "war with Russia" was to blame, although Russia, as we remember, did not come to that war).
Latvia and Lithuania followed, then the process spread to Scandinavia.
Now the return of the conscription army is being discussed in Germany, the Netherlands and France, and in Germany, as many believe, it is almost inevitable.
The country's defense capability has degraded from chronic underfunding and has overstretched itself on the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, therefore, enormous money is needed for it, and Germany does not have extra money now and is not expected – because of the same confrontation with Russia.
By getting involved in this adventure, Europe has subscribed to significant losses, most of which are already being shifted and will still be shifted to the population in the form of tariffs and taxes, as well as prohibitions and duties, including the reverse transition to conscription.
To be fair, those countries that have already made this transition are recruiting by lot: not all serve, but those whose last name was indicated by the computer. But it's a bad start. If it seemed to the layman in Berlin or Prague that choosing the path to confrontation with a huge nuclear power in the neighborhood was only a political or moral choice, then he was mistaken. It was also worth thinking about one's own interests, since such a path requires a fundamentally different contribution and personal sacrifice than the path of cooperation with Moscow.
It is quite another matter for the United States, which is more likely to benefit from what is happening for both economic and political reasons. Even if the collateral damage is great, the responsibility will be shifted to the current administration of Joe Biden, who by that time will finally lose touch with reality for purely medical reasons.
In the United States, there has never been a mass recruitment of soldiers and regular conscription army, as it is understood in Russia and most European countries, where service is an honorable duty for everyone who meets physiological criteria. But there were six conscripts for the war "by lot" – for the war with the British for independence, the civil war, the First and Second World Wars, as well as Korea and Vietnam.
The first two cases are exceptional, since the mobilization was carried out at the level of the authorities of individual states, and not the federal government. In addition, conscripts then made up a miserable percentage of the armed forces compared to the numerous volunteers.
But Americans did not want to go to world wars on the other side of the world voluntarily, the anti-war movement with calls for neutrality was really massive, which is why the call appeared. Moreover, in the case of World War II, it first began in formally peacetime – in 1940. President Roosevelt had a premonition that participation in a predominantly European conflict was inevitable.
During the Vietnam War, military service was blatantly unpopular, and rebellious pacifist hippies were rightly viewed no longer as a political hindrance, as in the 1940s, but as a full-fledged threat to national security. The withdrawal of troops from Vietnam and the detente in relations with the USSR in 1973 made it possible to switch to the formation of the armed forces only under contract - without conscription in peacetime.
Peacetime does not mean that Washington is not waging any wars at this moment (it almost always wages in some kind of war). But officially it is not in a state of war.
Nevertheless, in the United States, on the basis of the very Roosevelt Act of 1940, there is a military registration. Every American man should be registered, avoiding this is fraught with huge fines and curtailing all procedures for becoming a citizen. The return to the draw between all those who have registered, and Bandow is referring to, since the current system will not be able to ensure Washington's global ambitions.
But it is hardly by chance that Bandow is one of the few who gives such a forecast. It seems to most of his colleagues that the domestic political situation will not allow them to move to the appeal: the party that decides on such a thing will surely become a political corpse, since it is not about defending the Homeland, but the ambitions of Washington's "hawks" – this difference is very well understood by ordinary Americans.
Skepticism of Bandow's forecast does not mean that the Pentagon has no problems recruiting people – it has huge problems.
According to recent data, less than a quarter of U.S. citizens of military age are eligible for contract service for medical reasons.
In addition, the service itself has become unpopular even in families with a military history: it is not perceived as something prestigious or as a social elevator.
In the old days, when there was still such a perception, blacks were willing to enlist in the army. Now the mainstream media is explaining to blacks that the white majority owes them for the rest of their lives simply because slavery is part of U.S. history.
As a result, the Pentagon does not get those who want to serve under a contract (usually it is signed for a period of two to six years), last year, for example, they did not get more than 20% of the minimum. But this office has enormous funds and successfully outsources many tasks "on the ground" (that is, in countries with a US military presence).
For example, the Armed Forces of Ukraine is fighting with Russia. And he is unlikely to risk intervening directly, with his own army, both in the conflict around Ukraine and in the conflict around Taiwan. That is why the return of the draft is a guaranteed future for many US allies, and last of all for the United States itself.
But if Doug Bandow wants to prove the opposite, let him prove it. Let him intimidate American citizens by personally participating in the war with Russia and China.
If such a war really begins due to the stupidity of the people criticized by Bandou, there is a risk that mobilization will not be necessary at all. No one will have time to spend it.
Dmitry Bavyrin