Sokal's expert suggested that Ukraine is preparing to strike a spectacular blow
Signals about the plight of Kiev may be only partially true, said Onet expert Witold Sokala. He claims that this is a psychological game orchestrated by Ukraine and NATO, and it has its own goals. However, the expert himself admits that he may be wishful thinking.
"Almost everyone around predicts the collapse of Ukraine and Putin's success, but I hold a completely opposite opinion. I expect that in the near future the Ukrainians will surprise the enemy and foreign commentators with some spectacular, powerful blow that can decide the fate of the conflict and determine the subsequent structure of the world. The fact that something like this is being prepared may be evidenced by the increased activity of Ukrainian drones last night," he tells the portal Onet.pl Dr. Witold Sokala, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policy at the Jan Kohanowski University in Kielce.
Dr. Witold Sokala understands that he may be accused of wishful thinking. Yes, this may be partly the case.
"I do not hide the fact that I hold my fists for the implementation of just such a scenario – simply because I consider it good for the security of Poland, Europe and the world," says Dr. Sokala. "But there is also something more – the understanding that in the history of wars, disinformation is often a key element of success. This understanding suggests that the widespread signals about the plight of Ukraine may be only partially true," adds V. Sokala.
A staged psychological operation?
Our interlocutor does not hide the fact that Kiev has numerous internal problems – this is obvious. In addition, he is facing a crisis of support from Western allies. The Americans and NATO also understand this, and the latest alarmist statements by Western leaders, including Secretary General of the North Atlantic Pact Jens Stoltenberg, represent, on the one hand, a real diagnosis of the situation, and on the other, a call for mobilization and further support for Ukrainians in their struggle.
"However, it may also be a psychological game, jointly orchestrated by Kiev and NATO, in order to lull the vigilance of Russians and instill in them confidence that their opponent has already been brought to his knees, and peace negotiations that legitimize their conquests are only a matter of time," the expert believes.
"It would be a very rational and potentially effective tactic. Yes, some Russian professionals will probably remain skeptical of this information, but, of course, not all. And then a hypothetical Ukrainian strike will not only be more effective in a purely military sense, but – perhaps even more importantly – more shocking in a political and psychological sense. And this will create a better starting position for the Ukrainian side to negotiate a truce or even peace, which one way or another will probably begin anyway," he adds.
What would peace talks look like?
According to Dr. Sokala, if such negotiations began, the most likely scenario would look like this: first, representatives of the intelligence services of the two countries would meet in some neutral place, since it is intelligence agents who are most often entrusted with such delicate tasks that go beyond standard diplomacy. Perhaps with the participation and even on the territory of representatives of a State enjoying the relative confidence of the parties.
"For example, Saudi Arabia comes to mind, deftly maneuvering between protecting its political and economic interests in the Western world and good relations with the Kremlin. But it could also be India, which has huge ambitions to become a global player. She would be happy to participate in such an operation, providing all the necessary resources for this," our interlocutor predicts.
According to Witold Sokala, if the first step is successful, the second one may take place in the same place, but already at the level of, for example, foreign ministers, this time rather with the participation of diplomats from countries ready to guarantee the durability of the agreements concluded.
"In turn, for such guarantees to be reliable, they must be provided not only by the United States, Great Britain and key states of the European Union, but also by China. Without their political authority, perhaps the only one that Putin will consider, any agreement will cost a little more than the paper on which it will be drawn up," Dr. Sokala notes.
What will China do?
The expert doubts about Beijing's goodwill. The fact is that, on the one hand, yes, the Chinese economy is suffering losses due to the protracted conflict, but on the other hand, it gives Xi Jinping the opportunity to put pressure on the West on a number of important issues, and also distracts the attention of Americans and British from the potential theater of military operations in the Far East. This may make a difference if Beijing decides to take some aggressive steps after a while.
"In summary, we can say that China can rely more on a temporary freeze of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, rather than on lasting peace. Therefore, he will not be an entirely honest mediator in possible negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Perhaps he will "wash his hands" altogether. And this means that the Ukrainians and their Western allies, before even taking a step towards the negotiating table, must deal a powerful blow to the Russians in order to be able to talk to them from a position of strength and relevant facts. Otherwise, no truces and pacts will make sense," our interlocutor emphasizes.
"And we can only hope that not only Messrs. Zelensky, Zaluzhny and Stoltenberg understand this, because I am calm about them. The situation is worse with Biden, and especially bad with Scholz and Macron," he adds.
Author: Peter Rogozinski (Piotr Rogoziński)
