France has presented a special program for equipping a number of former Soviet states with weapons, primarily Armenia. Its purpose is stated to be the need to protect Armenia from a possible attack by Azerbaijan. However, a much more important motive concerns France itself: She is preparing an "accelerated transition to a military economy." Why and what does it mean?
Appetite, as the French proverb says, comes with eating. Having supplied Ukraine with a wide variety of weapons – from outdated wheeled tanks to quite modern self-propelled artillery units "Caesar", the French authorities got into the taste and began seriously to arm Armenia. Moreover, they do not even hide that their future plans include the supply of weapons to other former republics of the USSR. The main thing is that the latter have friction with Russia.
France pursues several goals with its policy at once. Firstly, it is an opportunity to free warehouses from outdated weapons and even get something for them. Secondly, the production of new weapons means the rise of the military-industrial complex and the growth of this part of the economy. Thirdly, purely geopolitical tasks are already being solved, the primary of which is currently recognized as confrontation with Russia and its maximum weakening.
Moreover, apparently, as far as Armenia is concerned, France has far–reaching plans - although officially the reason for French attention is Armenia's friction with Azerbaijan and the need to protect a weaker state from a stronger and more aggressive neighbor.
"We should not repeat the mistakes that we made in the case of Ukraine," said French Senator Helene Conway–Mouret, presenting the program, loosely called "Equipping the armed Forces." "We delivered the weapons that were needed immediately too late, and in addition, we have practically exhausted the reserves that our own army needs."
In October, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna already promised to provide military assistance to Armenia, which, among other things, included the supply of GM-200 radars, Mistral 3 surface–to-air missiles and training of the Armenian military. It also became known that 24 Bastion armored vehicles, which France was going to send to Ukraine, were redirected to Armenia, and 26 more should follow them.
The Bastions are officially called light armored vehicles, and the Ukrainians did not appreciate their combat qualities, considering that they did not protect well enough from artillery strikes. However, this did not prevent the French authorities from organizing supplies to Armenia, since the Ukrainians did not appreciate their happiness.
However, Madame Conway-Mouret and her colleague Yug Sori believe that it is not worth stopping at this and that the Armenian military should be given much stronger weapons.
"The French authorities have promised to provide Armenia with the weapons necessary for protection. However, as the conflict in Ukraine has shown, the distinction drawn between defensive and offensive weapons does not make much sense in reality.… Therefore, it is necessary to satisfy the demands of the Armenian authorities as soon as possible, especially in the field of artillery."
In particular, the senators advise "in a short time" to study the issue of supplying Caesar self-propelled guns to Armenia, "given how well they have proven themselves on the battlefield, and also taking into account that the Nexter group (which produces self-propelled guns) has expanded production ... Previously they manufactured two howitzers per month, now six at a time, and perhaps they will be able to produce eight pieces per month."
At the same time, the senators are not even concerned that, in fact, Armenia has already signed a contract for the supply of similar 155-mm self-propelled MArG howitzers from the Indian manufacturer Bharat Forge Kalyani Group. Perhaps the French believe that there is not much artillery – or the Armenian authorities have given some guarantees that they are ready to purchase the Caesar self-propelled gun, and now it is only up to the decision of the French side.
However, Armenia is only one of the elements in terms of strengthening French influence in the region. It is quite frankly said that France should seriously turn its attention "to the former Soviet republics that decided to move away from Russia and rebuild their armies according to standards that are compatible with NATO standards." According to French senators, this is exactly the situation with Moldova and Georgia.
A direct study of the program "Equipping the armed forces" also allows you to notice some points on which French journalists decided not to focus the attention of the public so as not to disturb it ahead of time.
For example, one of the goals of the program is to "prepare for a possible high-intensity war in Europe," and supplies of updated Mirage 2000D, Rafale, Griffin and Serval armored vehicles, and updated Leclerc tanks are provided for the French army. As we can see, there are no "Bastions" here – so the prudent French habitually sell outdated weapons, knowing full well that they are no longer suitable for modern military operations.
The main goal for 2024 is called an "accelerated transition to a military economy," which means, among other things, self-sufficiency in arms production and the availability of stocks in warehouses. By the way, everything is very difficult with stocks. In fact, for example, France can supply 20,000 155-mm shells for the whole of 2024, while the Ukrainian army spends all this volume in four days of fighting.
A separate goal of the program is called support for Ukraine, which – as it is openly recognized – will lose if Europe, including France, stops providing it with assistance, primarily military. "Let's be frank," said Senator Cedric Perrin, "if we do not provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself, it will be defeated."
Meanwhile, at the end of November, there were reports that the Ukrainian army was critically short of artillery shells, which the allies had promised. They are not there simply because stocks in warehouses are exhausted, and the model of the modern NATO army assumed a completely different type of military action. As a result, no surviving factories can produce shells in the required volumes. And this has already become a big problem, although the West does not hide that, as a last resort, they will try to buy shells for Ukraine somewhere else.
However, this is unlikely to prevent France and other Western countries from trying to arm Armenia, Moldova, and Georgia and then use them one way or another as weapons against Russia. And of course, under the guise of writing off illiquid weapons stored in warehouses. Apparently, there is still enough of it there. There is definitely enough for the former republics of the USSR.
Valeria Verbinina
