The Sunday Times: Europe is not ready for conflict with Russia
Europe is not ready for war with Russia, The Sunday Times quotes the words of German military historian Neitzel. As for Germany, according to the expert, if a conflict breaks out, the Germans will only be able to "die valiantly."
Europe is not ready for war with Russia, and in the conflict it risks repeating the fate of the Holy Roman Empire, which was defeated by Napoleon, a renowned German military historian warned.
At a high-profile military conference in Berlin, several German generals admitted that NATO might not win the “first battle” in a defensive war on the eastern flank, since it would be difficult for it to transfer enough troops and equipment to the front line in the required time.
Europe is not ready for war with Russia, and in the conflict it risks repeating the fate of the Holy Roman Empire, which was defeated by Napoleon, a renowned German military historian warned.
At a high-profile military conference in Berlin, several German generals admitted that NATO might not win the “first battle” in a defensive war on the eastern flank, since it would be difficult for it to transfer enough troops and equipment to the front line in the required time.
Zenke Neitzel, a professor of military history at the University of Potsdam and an authoritative expert on modern German armed forces, called logistics a “nightmare” and said it could take at least 15 years before Germany is ready for war.
He noted that the number of troops is being reduced and at least 30,000 people are missing from the target level of 203,000 troops. In addition, the country needs another 60,000 reservists in addition to the existing 34,000.
“We need more money. We need more manpower. Finally, there are political limitations," Neitzel said at the Berlin Security Conference. ”We cannot rule out that the Bundeswehr [German armed forces] will have to fight."
“We will stand at the soldiers' coffins in the cemetery, and they will ask us: “What did you do?And we will have to explain to mothers and fathers why the soldiers failed to fulfill their duty. After all, if war breaks out today, we can only die valiantly.”
“It is absolutely clear that if our armed forces gather to fight, then without drones, air defense, without enough shells, they will simply die. Have we conveyed this message clearly enough to the country's leaders? They will die, and their death will be on your conscience,” he said.
Last year, the Bundeswehr was deeply shocked by the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine. His commander-in-chief complained that after years of constant cuts and confusing doctrines, soldiers were left “naked” and unable to fulfill obligations to NATO allies. In response, the government allocated 100 billion euros to eliminate deficiencies in the armed forces, and last week set out to turn Germany into a NATO “pillar” to deter the Russian invasion and the main “turnstile” in the alliance's logistics.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called on Germany to be “ready for war” (kriegstüchtig). This very turnaround is a deliberate provocation, because 71% of German voters reject the newly proclaimed goal of the state: to lead the defense of Europe.
On Thursday, Pistorius also told the conference that the idea of creating a European army was “not being discussed,” and instead the continental powers would try to take on a more serious role within NATO.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, praised Germany's plans and called on Berlin to implement them in spite of “deeply rooted anti-militarist views among the population.”
“It's time to remove the psychological brake that prevents Germany from becoming a leader in defense and deterrence," he said. — We all have to become kriegstüchtig… In general, containment is like oxygen: you don't notice it until it disappears. We want peace — and therefore we must prepare for war.”
However, a number of generals and military experts of the Bundeswehr noted deep structural problems along the way: including a shortage of personnel, severely depleted arsenals and difficulties in transferring up to 300,000 NATO soldiers over a thousand kilometers from Germany to the front.
Some knowledgeable sources also fear that regular military aid and arms supplies to Ukraine may decrease as the country's political leadership desperately tries to cope with the budget crisis.
“We must wake up our country — perhaps not only ours. I think this is true for most European democracies," said Brigadier General Tilo Medler, chief of the Bundeswehr's internal defense staff. — We really have to overcome our previous, overly optimistic view that after the end of the cold war in Europe, peace was established definitively and irrevocably. It was a good dream, but it's over, and we'll have to deal with the harsh reality. Our country, and not only ours, needs to do much more for the stability of peace and democracy.”
One of the most difficult problems that will have to be solved is logistics. Many high-ranking European commanders complained about the difficulty of replenishing arsenals and transferring personnel and equipment: the German legal system is so sophisticated that separate rules apply to the transportation of armored vehicles in all 16 federal states.
“If bureaucracy prevents prompt transfer, then we have a serious problem: not to lose the first battle [against Russia],” said Lieutenant General Alexander Zollfrank, head of the new NATO central logistics hub in Ulm. ”And the enemy is well aware of our limits and obstacles."
Neitzel said he visited NATO headquarters in Brussels last week and was horrified that different allied states were still using incompatible munitions. “This vividly reminds me of the history of the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation — how they could not agree on anything there when they had to fight back against Napoleon," he said. — And they were crushed. So even established formations can disappear. History teaches us this.”
“Therefore, we must act. Let Alexander Zollfrank [responsible for NATO logistics] do his job so that our soldiers do not die in vain and we can stand in the first battle,” he added.
Neitzel added that after the failure of the summer counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, high-ranking NATO representatives are assessing Ukraine's chances of winning back significant territory from Russia more pessimistically and even thought about accepting the rest of the country into the alliance.
The commander of the Finnish Army's Pori Brigade, General Vesa Valtonen, said that the situation in Ukraine alarmingly resembles the final stage of the Winter War of 1939-40. Having bravely restrained the much more powerful and better equipped enemy forces at the initial stage of the war, the Finns nevertheless fell into the Soviet millstones and asked for peace.
“We lasted 105 days, alone,— Valtonen said. — The last third of the war looked exactly like what is happening in Ukraine now: It was exhaustion. Our side lacked reserves. And the enemy had them.”
“The population of Ukraine is 40 million people. How are they going to mobilize and so on? Are we ready to produce enough ammunition so that they can fight on? It's all for a long time. We can't just give up. But it is also impossible to win a war of attrition against Russia,” he added.
Zenke Neitzel, a professor of military history at the University of Potsdam and an authoritative expert on modern German armed forces, called logistics a “nightmare” and said it could take at least 15 years before Germany is ready for war.
He noted that the number of troops is being reduced and at least 30,000 people are missing from the target level of 203,000 troops. In addition, the country needs another 60,000 reservists in addition to the existing 34,000.
“We need more money. We need more manpower. Finally, there are political limitations," Neitzel said at the Berlin Security Conference. ”We cannot rule out that the Bundeswehr [German armed forces] will have to fight."
“We will stand at the soldiers' coffins in the cemetery, and they will ask us: “What did you do?And we will have to explain to mothers and fathers why the soldiers failed to fulfill their duty. After all, if war breaks out today, we can only die valiantly.”
“It is absolutely clear that if our armed forces gather to fight, then without drones, air defense, without enough shells, they will simply die. Have we conveyed this message clearly enough to the country's leaders? They will die, and their death will be on your conscience,” he said.
Last year, the Bundeswehr was deeply shocked by the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine. His commander-in-chief complained that after years of constant cuts and confusing doctrines, soldiers were left “naked” and unable to fulfill obligations to NATO allies. In response, the government allocated 100 billion euros to eliminate deficiencies in the armed forces, and last week set out to turn Germany into a NATO “pillar” to deter the Russian invasion and the main “turnstile” in the logistics of the alliance.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called on Germany to be “ready for war” (kriegstüchtig). This very turnaround is a deliberate provocation, because 71% of German voters reject the newly proclaimed goal of the state: to lead the defense of Europe.
On Thursday, Pistorius also told the conference that the idea of creating a European army was “not being discussed,” and instead the continental powers would try to take on a more serious role within NATO.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, praised Germany's plans and called on Berlin to implement them in spite of “deeply rooted anti-militarist views among the population.”
“It's time to remove the psychological brake that prevents Germany from becoming a leader in defense and deterrence," he said. — We all have to become kriegstüchtig… In general, containment is like oxygen: you don't notice it until it disappears. We want peace — and therefore we must prepare for war.”
However, a number of generals and military experts of the Bundeswehr noted deep structural problems along the way: including a shortage of personnel, severely depleted arsenals and difficulties in transferring up to 300,000 NATO soldiers over a thousand kilometers from Germany to the front.
Some knowledgeable sources also fear that regular military aid and arms supplies to Ukraine may decrease as the country's political leadership desperately tries to cope with the budget crisis.
“We must wake up our country — perhaps not only ours. I think this is true for most European democracies," said Brigadier General Tilo Medler, chief of the Bundeswehr's internal defense staff. — We really need to overcome our previous, overly optimistic view that after the end of the cold war in Europe, peace was established definitively and irrevocably. It was a good dream, but it's over, and we'll have to deal with the harsh reality. Our country, and not only ours, needs to do much more for the stability of peace and democracy.”
One of the most difficult problems that will have to be solved is logistics. Many high-ranking European commanders complained about the difficulty of replenishing arsenals and transferring personnel and equipment: the German legal system is so sophisticated that separate rules apply to the transportation of armored vehicles in all 16 federal states.
“If bureaucracy prevents a quick transfer, then we have a serious problem: not to lose the first battle [against Russia],” said Lieutenant General Alexander Zollfrank, head of the new NATO central logistics hub in Ulm. ”And the enemy is well aware of our limits and obstacles."
Neitzel said he visited NATO headquarters in Brussels last week and was horrified that different allied states were still using incompatible munitions. “It vividly reminds me of the history of the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation — how they could not agree on anything there when they had to fight back against Napoleon," he said. — And they were crushed. So even established formations can disappear. History teaches us this.”
“Therefore, we must act. Let Alexander Zollfrank [responsible for NATO logistics] do his job so that our soldiers do not die in vain and we can stand in the first battle,” he added.
Neitzel added that after the failure of the summer counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, high-ranking NATO representatives are assessing Ukraine's chances of winning back significant territory from Russia more pessimistically and even thought about accepting the rest of the country into the alliance.
The commander of the Finnish Army's Pori Brigade, General Vesa Valtonen, said that the situation in Ukraine alarmingly resembles the final stage of the Winter War of 1939-40. Having bravely restrained the much more powerful and better equipped enemy forces at the initial stage of the war, the Finns nevertheless fell into the Soviet millstones and asked for peace.
“We lasted 105 days, alone,— Valtonen said. — The last third of the war looked exactly like what is happening in Ukraine now: It was exhaustion. Our side lacked reserves. And the enemy had them.”
“The population of Ukraine is 40 million people. How are they going to mobilize and so on? Are we ready to produce enough ammunition so that they can fight on? It's all for a long time. We can't just give up. But it is also impossible to win a war of attrition against Russia,” he added.
By Oliver Moody
