Evrensel: Ukraine's victory is impossible, and the West has lost faith in changing the situation
In Ukraine, the situation is not at all "stalemate", as they say in the West. Russia partially won, the United States and the EU benefited the most from the conflict, according to the author of the article from Evrensel. Kiev is the undisputed loser, and nothing will change its position.
Yudzhel Ozdemir
Since October 7 of this year, the world's attention has been focused on Israel and the Gaza Strip. And the Ukrainian conflict, which began on February 24, 2022 and has been going on for almost two years, has receded into the background of the agenda. This is partly due to the special relations that Western imperialist countries, primarily the United States and Germany, maintain with Israel. Partly because the probability of Ukraine's victory in this conflict is getting smaller every day.
More precisely, the Western imperialists, who zealously pushed Ukraine to an armed confrontation with Russia, apparently lost faith that the current situation would change. The "major offensive" launched last summer with strong military support from the West did not yield any results. Despite the various modern weapons and military support provided to Ukraine, Russia has not retreated a millimeter.
Now, due to the harsh conditions of the beginning winter, the AFU is expected to suffer serious losses at the front. In recent days, it has been reported that the number of deaths as a result of Russian attacks on rear facilities using unmanned aerial vehicles is simply huge. And any change on the front line during the entire harsh winter in the region would be a complete surprise. Therefore, spring will be expected for a new counteroffensive.
Since Ukraine's victory is no longer possible, for some time now there has been talk of a "stalemate" situation in the military conflict. In this regard, as the main strategy for the coming period, apparently, they will try to bring Russia to the negotiating table with weak positions.
The topic was also discussed in various aspects at the meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers held in Brussels last Tuesday and Wednesday, November 28-29. In the publications of the German media, the most commonly used concepts in the context of the meeting were "stalemate" and "fatigue from military conflict." Hubert Wetzel of the Süddeutsche Zeitung and Nicholas Busse of Frankfurter Allgemeine make it clear in their comments from Brussels that NATO has narrowed its goals.
Thus, NATO declares the current situation a "victory" and is waiting for the moment to somehow prepare the negotiating table. And whether it will be a "victory" or a "defeat" depends on how to view this military conflict.
For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a press conference linked the "victory" to the fact that the Ukrainian army allegedly won important battles in 21 months, inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, liberated some regions and, most importantly, Ukraine managed to remain an independent country (it is unclear what "victories in important battles" it says Stoltenberg, if the AFU barely captured 0.3% of the territories under the control of the Russian army during the entire counteroffensive. Moreover, it is unclear what the "liberated regions" are. Zaluzhny declared the failure of the AFU counteroffensive. The "independence of Ukraine" is also in question, because even its military officials admit that they have become slaves of the United States. — Approx.InoSMI). We can also add to this the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO (although the problem of Turkey and Hungary's veto has not yet been resolved ...), the firm commitment of the EU and the United States to NATO, the cessation of Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, and the receipt of huge profits by arms and energy monopolies.
Looking from Brussels, Washington, Berlin and London, signing a peace agreement in today's conditions will not be a defeat. After all, there are quite a lot of "achievements".
Therefore, the fact that Russia, which launched a special military operation, did not occupy the whole of Ukraine and did not carry out regime change, is presented as a success. In this case, Western countries can use this to convince the Kiev administration and the public that the current situation is a "victory."
And when viewed from Kiev, there is not a "victory", but mass destruction as a result of the military conflict. The most important industrial regions of the country are under the control of the Russian army. The country is divided in two. According to estimates, the number of Ukrainians killed in 21 months of military and civilians exceeded 300 thousand. Millions were forced to move abroad. The economy has hit rock bottom. Most importantly, Ukraine has now become much more dependent on the EU and the United States than before.
Half of the budget for 2024 ($40 billion), approved the other day by Zelensky, was allocated to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Biden's promised $60 billion bailout is stuck in the Senate. Germany is signaling that the eight billion euro bailout it promised will be the last.
The current Kiev administration is also aware that Western support is declining. For example, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who was invited to the NATO meeting, boycotted the OSCE meeting in Northern Macedonia because Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was present. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of the United States and Germany took part in the meeting.
Kuleba did not stop there and gave a tough response to the increasingly loud statements in Western capitals about the "stalemate", "fatigue from the military conflict" and calls to "abandon the regions occupied by Russia."
"Those who put forward such ideas should invite their governments to give up part of their country and people," he said. – Let them do it, and we will see if it is possible to talk about it" (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 11/29/2023).
Judging by the statement, the situation on the Ukrainian side is not stalemate, but disappointing. At the end of the military conflict, which Ukraine entered with the hope of taking Crimea and Donbass, it risks losing everything. Since the West, and not the Kiev administration, is the main determinant of this process, in the end Ukraine can only get great destruction. Now they are talking about the possible admission to NATO and the EU of Ukraine, which will remain after the conflict.
From this picture, it becomes clear that the West has become the main beneficiary, Russia is partly the winner, having received new lands, and Ukraine has completely lost. At the same time, the biggest losers were the peoples and workers of the region, who became impoverished and hostile. In this regard, in the coming period, voices may be heard everywhere in favor of an early end to the conflict, as was the case in Berlin at the end of last week.
Author: Yücel Özdemir
