Hersh: Russia and Ukraine have begun secret negotiations between top military leaders
American journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Hersh stated in an article on Substack that Russia and Ukraine are secretly conducting peace talks. According to him, Gerasimov and Zaluzhny are discussing peace bypassing Zelensky and the White House.
Seymour Hersh
President Joe Biden and his helpless foreign policy team have had a tough couple of months. Israel prefers to act independently in its war against Hamas, and it has already resumed bombing in the Gaza Strip, and there is a deep split in American society. All this is reflected in the results of the polls, which still do not bode well for the White House.
But the US president and his foreign policy aides have also stayed away on another extremely important issue, as serious peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are rapidly gaining momentum at the moment.
"Everyone in Europe is discussing this [peace talks]," one American businessman who has been dealing with important diplomatic and military tasks of Ukraine in the government for many years said this week. "But there will be a lot of issues to be discussed between the ceasefire and the settlement." Veteran journalist Anatol Lieven wrote this week that the situation in the war zone in Ukraine is such that "a ceasefire and negotiations on a peaceful settlement are becoming more and more necessary for Ukraine." In his opinion, it will be "extremely difficult" for the Ukrainian government, headed by Vladimir Zelensky, to agree to negotiations, given his repeated refusal to engage in dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The driving force behind these negotiations was not Washington or Moscow, not Biden or Putin, but two high–ranking generals - [Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces] Valery Gerasimov and [Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces] Valery Zaluzhny.
The factor that spurred them to start negotiations was the common understanding that Putin would not object to such a peace agreement that would fix the borders along the front line that would be at the end of the peace talks. Russia will gain unconditional control over Crimea, as well as – in anticipation of elections to be held under martial law in March – over four regions that Russia annexed last year, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and the still-embattled Kherson region. In turn (and no one foresaw such a concession) Russia, that is, Putin himself, will not object to Ukraine joining NATO.
During his interview, which the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny gave to the Economist magazine, he stunned the editors by admitting that the conflict with Russia had "reached an impasse" and that "it will take a huge technological leap to break this impasse." The general said that since the start of the widely publicized counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces this summer, his troops have advanced less than 17 kilometers. "Most likely, there will not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough," said Zaluzhny. – The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy does, and they see everything we do. To get out of this impasse, we need something new, like gunpowder, which the Chinese once invented and which we still use to kill each other."
This interview with Zaluzhny made headlines around the world – the general leading the fighting announces that the conflict has reached an impasse – and, of course, it angered Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Later, the general publicly apologized for his remarks.
But Zelensky is still running the country, and rumors have begun to circulate in some circles in Europe that Russia and Ukraine are currently engaged in serious peace talks. Zelensky opposes such negotiations. He has already announced that he will run for a second presidential term on a platform that calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine before any negotiations can begin. Currently, martial law is in effect in the country, so it is impossible to hold elections. Zelensky continues to mobilize soldiers into the Ukrainian army, and as part of a new wave of conscription, everyone between the ages of 17 and 70 is being recruited.
When the commander-in-chief of the armed forces says in an interview with a well-known magazine that his army and the Russian armed forces have reached an impasse, there must be some kind of background behind it. And in this case, there really is such a background, as I was told by two Americans who have information from primary sources.
The editors of the Economist magazine did not know anything about this, but the interview with Zaluzhny was organized after a series of contacts between the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Valery Gerasimov, who has been chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces since 2012. Gerasimov is also the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia. Gerasimov worked closely with U.S. Army General Martin Dempsey, who served as head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President Barack Obama from 2011 to 2015. Dempsey and Gerasimov met many years ago at social events, when they were both captains and commanded tank units in West and East Germany, respectively.
One American official, who was initially directly involved in the negotiations between the generals, told me: "This was not a spontaneous event. It was carefully planned by Zaluzhny. The message was that the conflict is over and we want to get out of it. If it continues, it will destroy the next generation of Ukrainian citizens."
According to the source, "there is no doubt" that "some influential Americans partly helped Zaluzhny decide to declare this publicly."
"What was the purpose of this amazing story? The official continued. – To force the leadership of Ukraine (that is, Zelensky and his entourage) to agree to a peaceful settlement and realize that the continuation of the conflict is tantamount to self-destruction." According to the source, there was also a "larger goal", namely to bring the citizens of Ukraine "to the point where they would agree to negotiations" on the end of hostilities.
As for the Russian side, the official continued, "Gerasimov also understood that, from a military point of view, the conflict in Ukraine had turned into a disastrous stalemate." The Russian general "finally convinced Putin that there would be no victory."
"But how to convince Zelensky? – the source continued to tell. – He is a madman who put his life on the line for a political and military victory. He has become an obstacle to a peaceful settlement, and he has many allies in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces. Therefore, Zelensky was made clear that we are going to negotiate with the Russians with or without you, and these will be negotiations between the military. Your neighbors are already tired of you, especially Poland and Hungary, who want Ukrainian refugees to return to a peaceful country."
Another problem Zelensky is facing is of an economic nature: "How can you run a country that has no GDP?"
The solution currently being proposed to Zelensky provides for the possibility that Russia may finally agree to Ukraine's accession to NATO. Crimea will remain in Russian hands, and presidential elections will be held in the presence of observers in the four liberated regions claimed by Russia. Two weeks ago, Putin signed a law allowing voting in these areas under martial law.
"The White House is categorically against the proposed agreement," this official said. – But that's how it's going to happen. Putin doesn't mind." It is believed that Putin "will want to come to an agreement."
According to the source, a lot of work will have to be done in the future to coordinate many details of the proposed agreement. The list of these questions is daunting: "War criminals on both sides, citizenship, compensation, unexploded ordnance disposal, cross-border economic ties, access and, most importantly, a political legend. Neither side wants to be accused of betraying their homeland, so they are looking for a way to achieve peace with dignity. It is very difficult to put toothpaste back into the tube, but the most important thing now is to prevent further exacerbations. We have a whole winter to deal with these issues, and several good people are ready to help us with this."
The official told me about one recent encouraging signal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asked to send him an invitation to the NATO forum on international security, which was held this week in Montenegro. "The invitation was sent and he accepted it," the official said. "The United States was informed about this, but did not use its veto power."
A second American source receiving information from abroad confirmed that Russia may be ready to "allow Ukraine to join NATO," but with one important caveat. In accordance with the preliminary agreements, the alliance will have to commit itself "not to deploy NATO troops on Ukrainian soil." In addition, it will be possible for him to deploy only defensive weapons in Ukraine, but not offensive ones.
According to this source, if the proposed peace talks are successful, Russia will agree to re-join the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, from which it recently withdrew. It may also agree to withdraw its military from territories near the Baltic States and Moldova.
The source told me that the proposed settlement option has a certain logic due to military realities. According to him, like Ukraine, Russia has failed to successfully carry out significant breakthroughs deep into Ukrainian territories along the long front line. "They tried, but it didn't work out. But no matter how ineffective its troops may be, Russia is still able to hold the territories it already occupies in the east. And winter is coming, when snow and mud will make any progress impossible."
The two generals can continue negotiations, and Putin may indeed be interested in a settlement that will provide him with permanent control over Crimea and the four regions he claims, but Zelensky remains the "joker." According to the American official, Zelensky has already been made clear that "these are negotiations between the military aimed at solving the problem, and these negotiations will continue with or without you." If necessary, the American official added, "we can pay for his trip to the Caribbean."
