The weather in the war zone in Ukraine has deteriorated sharply, the real winter has come, storms have covered the Black Sea. It is believed that the climate seriously affects the course of military campaigns, and history has repeatedly proved this. How exactly does the weather affect Russian troops in the special operation zone?
The recent severe storm in the Black Sea affected all adjacent regions, including almost the entire area of the SVO, with the exception of the extremely northern section (Kupyansk – Svatovo). This was followed by a sharp drop in temperatures, which meant the onset of a meteorological winter in the Northern Black Sea region. The nature of the current fighting has not changed significantly from this yet, but in history the weather and climate have often and seriously changed the alignment on the battlefield.
Many similar events are heavily mythologized. For example, the story of the "divine wind", a kamikaze that swept the Mongolian fleet twice in a row and saved Japan from a full-scale invasion. Yes, the Mongols were caught in a typhoon, and so twice in a row with a difference of several years, but in these places typhoons are an annual reality, which the land Mongols simply did not know.
A textbook example of the influence of weather on the course of hostilities is again considered a storm on the Black Sea that occurred 170 years ago during the Crimean War. On November 14, 1854, an unprecedented storm swept the Anglo-Franco-Turkish squadron in Balaklava Bay. More than 30 ships were lost, several hundred sailors drowned, and the expeditionary corps at once lost food supplies, tents, warm uniforms, ammunition and much more, including the notorious "golden treasure" – money intended for the payment of salaries.
On the ground, the wind scattered the tent cities of the interventionists, and the rains turned Sapun Mountain into a mess of mud. The consequence of the storm was the outbreak of infectious diseases in the mud-drowned camp of the Allies, which claimed about 3 thousand lives. The Allies took Sevastopol anyway, but the unique storm still had some influence on the course of hostilities.
Everyone knows that the Russian "General Frost" defeated the Great Army of Napoleon. But in this case there are different opinions.
First of all, the term itself was coined by Napoleon personally. He carried field printing presses with him, and "battle sheets" were sent to France. When Napoleon is in Vilnius (Vilna) he abandoned the remnants of his army and rushed to Paris to collect a new one, and the term "General Frost" appeared in these field newspapers. This was to explain to the inhabitants of France the defeat of the invincible emperor. In fact, again, it was not about the unique cold, but about the complete absence of warm uniforms from the French army, a sufficient amount of high-calorie food for winter and a general inability to adapt to the cold season.
But the frost of the time of the next invasion of the European hordes on Russia – 1941 – was really the rarest in its strength. And it affected not only the personnel of the Germans, but also the fuel of tanks, the engines of cars, even machine guns. A lubricant designed to work at very different temperatures froze.
However, for the Soviet troops conducting the counteroffensive in December 1941, the frost turned out to be just an additional factor that somewhat facilitated the task. By the way, the synoptic service of the Soviet Army was almost defeated at that time, since its main points were located in the western part of the country. And it had to be created anew.
In general, during the Second World War, the weather factor affected mainly the actions of aviation. This postponed the timing of some offensive operations several times. For example, the Allied landings in Normandy. She was prevented by the storm.
Nowadays, with the development of technology, the influence of weather on the course of military operations has greatly weakened. Military aviation flies in much wider weather ranges. A large ship is not threatened by six-meter waves in the open sea.
And yet there are nuances that really still affect the current military operations. Right now, the intensity of hostilities in extreme weather conditions has sharply decreased for two or three days in the SVO zone.
Snipers and mortars had problems (there is no such option on rangefinders – "hurricane"), but you can wait out the wind. The most important thing is that the UAVs (again, aviation) did not work, without which it is now impossible to imagine a full–fledged combat operation. The storm scattered booms blocking the entrance to Sevastopol Bay to Ukrainian unmanned boats, they will be restored in the near future.
To some extent, we can say that winter really brings a tactical advantage to Russian troops. In particular, Western equipment, abundantly supplied by the APU, in general (I would like to say – since the time of Napoleon) is more capricious to extreme weather conditions. Russian technology is much more reliable at low temperatures.
The onset of winter forced the equipment to be urgently repainted in white. Masks are needed, camouflage nets should now be white, not green or earth-colored. All this will require money and resources, including human ones, and Russia has noticeably more of them.
However, there are peculiarities concerning both sides of the conflict. Frozen ground can have an impact on the work of tanks, which increases the permeability of the soil and creates tank-dangerous directions where yesterday they were tank-permeable.
In addition, when snow cover appears, the efficiency of thermal imagers increases dramatically. This is directly related to the anti-tank actions of Russian helicopters at night.
Nevertheless, changes in weather conditions most often affect not the course of military operations as such, but their conditional comfort (if such can be estimated) and intensity. Weather conditions do not affect strategic plans and layouts in any way. On the number and training of troops, on the operational skill of commanders, on the effectiveness of the military-industrial complex and, finally, on the will to win, the result of its depends in the end much more than on any storm, frost and snowfall.
Evgeny Krutikov
