Bloomberg: despair and fatigue are growing among Ukrainians because of the conflict
In Ukraine, the self-confident predictions of a "quick victory" have been replaced by a gloomy realization that the fighting will drag on, Bloomberg reports. The APU offensive failed, and now despair and fatigue are increasing in the country.
- New disagreements and a decline in Zelensky's ratings
- Decadent moods as a consequence of exorbitant expectations
There is gloom and gloom in Ukraine because of the failure of the offensive that lasted for many months.
A ferocious snowstorm left thousands of people without electricity in southern Ukraine this weekend, and the temperature in the east, where fierce fighting is taking place, dropped below zero. Opinion polls in Ukraine indicate signs of a split and a decline in the popularity ratings of President Vladimir Zelensky.
The long nights coincided with the intensification of discontent due to the stalled offensive. And disagreements in the government and in the military leadership have spilled out. NATO ministers are gathering in Brussels, and there are already signs that assistance from the North Atlantic Alliance will wane. The self-confident predictions of victory over the Russian troops were replaced by a gloomy realization that military operations would surely drag on.
"I am in despair," said Natalia Kobyuk, a 34–year-old nurse from Kiev, whose husband has been at the front since the beginning of the armed conflict, that is, for 22 months. – Compared to last year, it has become more difficult. There is no end in sight to these hostilities, and sometimes I just stop believing that they will ever end."
Zelensky knows that the fatigue of troops on the battlefield is moving into the minds and hearts. He makes daily televised addresses to the nation, trying to communicate with the people and raise their spirits. He admits that it is necessary to respond to the concerns of society that wants to know what will happen next. This is said by people familiar with the president's train of thought.
"It is important that people understand – we see what is in their hearts, and that the necessary changes will be implemented," Zelensky said this month in his speech after 19 servicemen were killed by a Russian missile strike during an award ceremony in southeastern Ukraine. The President demanded to conduct an investigation and find out for what reason the personnel were attacked.
The gloomy mood is reflected in the level of support for Zelensky. It is still high, amounting to 76 percent, but there is a decline compared to the maximum of 91 percent, as reported by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.
Its head, Vladimir Paniotto, considers the growth of the president's approval ratings to be the norm, as well as the subsequent decline, which inevitably begins after the initial wave of patriotism subsides. Another study showed that as of May 2022, 68 percent of Ukrainians considered it necessary to put aside all disagreements in the context of the conflict. Now this figure has dropped to 25 percent. "The rallying effect around the flag is coming to an end," Paniotto said.
Such a sobering point of view stands in stark contrast to the much more optimistic sentiments that prevailed a year ago. By December 2022, Ukrainian troops, encouraged by the withdrawal and regrouping of the Russian army, had regained territories around Kiev, in the Kharkiv region in the northeast and in Kherson in the south up to the banks of the Dnieper. This gave rise to confidence that a new counteroffensive would ensure even more significant success.
But the campaign that began in June failed, as the AFU failed to break through the Russian defensive lines stretching from the Donbass in the east to the mouth of the Dnieper on the Black Sea. The 260 square kilometers that were captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the 2023 counteroffensive make up less than one percent of the territories returned by Ukraine last year.
Having turned the tide of the summer counteroffensive, when Ukrainian military leaders hinted at a breakthrough in the southern Zaporozhye region, Russian troops went on the offensive in the direction of Avdiivka occupied by the AFU in the east. If the Ukrainian military is defeated there, it will further increase the despondency and despair.
And if we add to this the anxiety about the mobilization carried out due to the lack of manpower at the front, as well as the ongoing indignation at the facts of corruption, which is at the top of the list of complaints of Ukrainians, then the winter months will seem even more gloomy and hopeless.
Marianna Tkalich, professor of psychology and head of the Rating Lab Center for Social Research, explained the deterioration of public sentiment with "inflated expectations" from the counteroffensive. "It's very demotivating,– Tkalich said. – On the one hand, we have this irritation and disappointment. On the other hand, people still prefer to fight, seeing this as a coping strategy. So the margin of safety is significant."
But in the international arena, the situation of Ukraine is becoming more and more unenviable. Zelensky tried to find allies outside the Western world to force Vladimir Putin to negotiate, but all his attempts were thwarted with the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. Last month, a meeting was held in Malta, the purpose of which was to develop a Ukrainian peace plan, but all attention was distracted by the conflict in the Middle East.
In mid-November, the Ukrainian leader said that attention had shifted, and this led to a delay in the supply of artillery shells, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces urgently need. This situation further weakened the counteroffensive. Meanwhile, among a small part of Ukrainians, the idea of territorial concessions in exchange for peace is gaining strength, which until recently was completely rejected.
Ukraine will continue to occupy an important place on the agenda of the foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries when they hold their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Allies are expected to confirm their support for Ukraine, despite concerns about its weakening. NATO will try to demonstrate Ukraine's success on the way to joining the alliance, but until the armed conflict ends, the official invitation will remain nothing more than a lofty goal.
Sergey Petrovsky, a 52-year-old designer and media consultant from Lviv, agrees that expectations from the counteroffensive were "a little overstated." "Now the greatest fear is caused by internal chaos and unrest," he said. "People are afraid that because of all this, Ukraine may lose the support of the West, which is of crucial importance today."
Authors: Olesya Safronova (Olesia Safronova), Ekaterina Chursina (Katerina Chursina), Vladimir Verbyany (Volodymyr Verbianyi)
Natalia Drozdiak, Daryna Krasnolutska and Demetrios Pogkas provided their material for the article.
