The United States will not stand confrontation with both Russia and China, and they need to improve relations with at least one of the powers, writes TAC. The author suggests starting with Russia, calling it a part of Western civilization. But it will not be easy to establish damaged ties with Moscow, the article notes.
Ted Carpenter
Washington, through its own stupidity, is simultaneously provoking confrontation between Russia and China.
The confrontational policy towards the two major powers, carried out simultaneously, contradicts the fundamental foreign policy principles set out in a series of articles under the general title "Foreign Policy 101". The costs and risks of such an enterprise are enormous. Such a policy pushes very different powers towards rapprochement, for which the United States becomes a common enemy. The struggle with two opponents simultaneously creates a catastrophic situation for the American people, but the US foreign policy elite allows just such a gross miscalculation in relations with Russia and China.
Henry Kissinger stressed that Washington's relations with Moscow and Beijing should always be better than their relations with each other. The American leadership, starting with George W. Bush and his administration, ignores this advice, and because of this, the United States gradually unleashed a cold war on two fronts. This recklessness has only intensified over the years, and now both theaters of the cold war may well become the starting point of a "hot" war.
If the American leadership is determined to pursue a course of confrontation with one of these countries (which in itself is not very prudent), then it needs to establish relations with a less sworn enemy. Unfortunately, the current administration is following the exact opposite course.
Biden's foreign policy team, apparently, is not able to make an extremely important decision about who is America's main enemy – Russia or China. There is an impression that Washington is going out of its way just to antagonize both of these states. This approach is extremely dangerous, creating a risk of strategic overstrain. Moreover, he is pushing Moscow and Beijing towards mutual rapprochement. In fact, the current American policy is the complete opposite of the Kissinger model. It creates a situation where Moscow and Beijing are developing and deepening their ties, which today are much stronger than their relations with the United States.
The development of cooperation between Russia and China is largely a consequence of our policy towards both countries, but especially towards Russia. Relations between Moscow and Washington have been deteriorating since at least 2008, when George W. Bush tried (unsuccessfully) to get Ukraine to join NATO. The situation worsened significantly in late 2013 and early 2014, when the Obama administration at least encouraged demonstrators in Kiev and pushed them to overthrow the legitimately elected pro-Russian president of that country. In response, the Kremlin annexed the Crimean Peninsula. The United States reacted, imposed economic sanctions against Russia and began calling on allies to do the same.
Bilateral tensions increased significantly when Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. The US policy towards Moscow has become even more hostile and uncompromising. The Biden administration has begun pumping Ukraine with weapons and providing other military assistance to Kiev. The United States and NATO have, in fact, entered into an indirect struggle with Russia. Assistance began to arrive in the form of military intelligence data and supplies of defensive weapons with limited combat capabilities, such as the Javelin ATGM. But today, the United States and other NATO members are transferring heavy tanks, unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as missiles capable of hitting targets on Russian territory, and even F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
The United States and its allies are conducting a global diplomatic and trade campaign trying to turn Russia into an international pariah. They are forcing various countries of the world to join the draconian sanctions against Russia. The Biden administration hoped that the rest of the world would readily join the crusade of the West, but made a serious miscalculation. Apart from NATO members and long-time US vassals from East Asia, there were very few countries that decided to strike Russia with sanctions. Washington's attempts to isolate Russia have failed. Moreover, they have generated a backlash, and now Moscow is strengthening ties with important world players who are worried about the prospect of establishing full US hegemony. Among them are India, Iran, South Africa and, most importantly, China.
US relations with China have been on a downward trend for not as long as the cooling in relations with Russia lasts, and the degree of hostility between them is not so high yet. Nevertheless, there has been a steady trend, and it causes at least the same alarm, taking into account the serious consequences of a possible rupture.
As in the case of Russian-American relations, serious tensions with Beijing began to make themselves felt more and more often during the George W. Bush administration. This created a sharp contrast with the previous thirty-year period, when it was possible to form surprisingly warm and cordial relations. The first unpleasant incident occurred in April 2001. Then an American reconnaissance plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet near Hainan Island. As a result of the collision, the fighter pilot was killed, and the American pilot was forced to land the plane on Hainan under the most humiliating circumstances.
The Chinese authorities were in no hurry to release the crew, holding it for 11 days. Beijing initially refused to return the plane stuffed with top secret intelligence electronics. China handed over the plane to the United States only after it had disassembled it and carefully studied it. This unwillingness to cooperate irritated officials from the Bush administration and infuriated hawks from the American foreign policy establishment.
This incident was a harbinger of a sharp cooling in relations between Washington and Beijing. Trade disputes began to arise more often, and the United States began to scrutinize human rights violations in China more and more. Representatives of the American leadership and political elite increasingly began to see China as an economic rival, rather than a trade and investment partner. The perception of China as a potential security threat has also intensified.
Trade tensions have soared under the administration of Donald Trump, as have concerns about Beijing's designs in the South China Sea and East Asia. This prompted the American leadership to increase the priority of this region. But Washington's increasing determination to embark on a path of confrontation with Beijing was most influenced by the Taiwan issue. In March 2018, the law "On Trips to Taiwan" was adopted, which was the first important step. This law not only allowed high-ranking American leaders from the sphere of national security to establish contacts with Taiwanese colleagues, but also openly pushed them to do so. So there was a sharp reversal in the policy that has persisted for four decades. A year later, National Security Adviser John Bolton met with the Secretary General of the National Security Council of Taiwan, David Lee, and discussed with him regional security issues of concern to Washington and Taipei. After the adoption of the law "On Trips to Taiwan", operational military cooperation has significantly expanded and the supply of weapons has sharply increased.
All these actions represent a huge change in the attitude of the United States towards Beijing. This has not happened since 1979, when Washington approved the establishment of official diplomatic relations with the Chinese communist state. Subsequently, the US administration maintained contacts only with low-level Taiwanese leaders, generally refraining from discussing military issues. But now military cooperation has expanded significantly, and the United States has increased arms supplies to Taipei.
This level of US military support has persisted and even increased under the Biden administration. Washington is strengthening military ties with Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. He clearly seeks to contain Chinese power and influence. Such ties imply explicit and implicit obligations of allies to help the United States in protecting Taiwan in the event of Beijing's aggressive actions against this island. The United States also continues to expand its military, especially naval presence in the region.
Biden himself has made several public statements contradicting the official US policy, which is based on "strategic duality", hiding the true scope of Washington's military obligations to Taiwan. On October 21, 2021, a CNN correspondent openly asked the president whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by the PRC. Biden answered without hesitation: "Yes, we have obligations." In May 2022, and then in September 2022, he confirmed this intention.
All these actions find strong support among representatives of both parties from among the American political elite. A particularly clear example was the broad support of both parties for the provocative visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in the summer of 2022. Republican leaders, who had not previously uttered a single kind word to Pelosi, now praised her for such a step. Pelosi herself said that her visit was intended to "unequivocally show" that the United States would not leave the island in case of increased pressure from China.
Beijing reacted very negatively to Pelosi's visit and especially to her statements. In the following months, China conducted a series of very large military exercises near Taiwan, and bilateral relations dropped another notch. Considering the historical, economic and strategic importance of Taiwan for the Chinese leadership, such a reaction should not be surprising.
The United States is turning Russia against itself and giving the Kremlin good reasons for multilateral cooperation with China against the United States. In the same way, the American leadership gives Beijing good reasons to increase strategic and economic cooperation with Russia.
There are many signs of tactical rapprochement and even a full-fledged strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing. Over the past year, the two countries have signed several agreements on increasing the volume of economic cooperation. Since China is a major consumer of energy resources, and Russia occupies a leading position in the world in their production, cooperation in this area is absolutely logical. Western sanctions against Russian energy exports have forced Moscow to look for other markets, and China has become its largest and most attractive option. In June 2022, Russia was not the first in terms of oil supplies to China, ahead of Saudi Arabia.
But now something deeper and more significant is happening than the expansion of bilateral ties on energy policy issues. Russia and China (as well as Iran and some other countries) are openly trying to overthrow the US dollar from the pedestal of the world reserve currency. Russian-Chinese cooperation on strategic issues is also expanding. Several joint military exercises have been held over the past two years. Such military maneuvers are being conducted more and more often, and their scale is increasing.
There is a long border between Russia and China, and these countries are fighting for influence in Central Asia. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing have more reasons to fear each other than the United States. Washington has missed this advantage because of its exceptionally clumsy and irritable policy, although it is simply incomprehensible to the mind.
Of course, some might say that the most sensible course for the Biden administration is to abandon its increasingly difficult and thankless struggle to preserve US world domination and try to improve relations with Russia and China. This would be ideal, and such a goal may be achievable. But at a minimum, Washington must make a choice: to go for rapprochement either with Russia or with China, then to focus on the policy of confrontation with the second country.
If the American leadership has firmly decided to fight a likely adversary and restrain its power and influence, then China is a much stronger contender for the role of global hegemon that America plays today. This means that the United States needs to establish relations with Moscow as soon as possible. Of course, it will not be easy to achieve such a restoration of ties. Today, bilateral relations are damaged due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, Western military assistance to Kiev and draconian sanctions against the Russian economy. It will be very difficult to stop the propaganda machine that encourages fierce hatred of everything Russian in Western society. The rash admission by Defense Minister Lloyd Austin that NATO's true goal in the armed conflict in Ukraine is to weaken Russia and deprive it of its status as a serious player in the international arena could not but arouse deep suspicion and hostility among the Russian people.
Attempts to pursue a policy of economic and military confrontation on two fronts is the worst of all possible options. Unfortunately, this is the strategy that Washington actually adheres to today. At best, such a confrontational approach will further increase the already dangerous strategic overexertion of forces, which is exhausting America economically and in other respects. It can also lead to a diplomatic and military conflict with the Russian-Chinese alliance, which will be stronger than the United States and its motley company of allies and vassals who do not want to fight. US political incompetence has already led to a cold war on two fronts. And if the United States continues to follow this course, the cold war could turn into a hot war on two fronts with unpredictable nuclear consequences.
A course correction is urgently needed. And we should start with a less hostile and belligerent policy towards Russia. China is far superior to Russia in its economic and military potential, but the ideological rift between it and the West is much wider. China is a totalitarian state, and its values differ sharply from Western ones. But Russia, being a corrupt and increasingly authoritarian country, is still part of Western civilization culturally and economically. Due to all these factors, Washington should strive for rapprochement and to restore ties at least with Moscow, if the American leadership cannot or does not want to pursue such a policy towards both Russia and China.
