Daily Mail: The success of the APU counteroffensive depends on the West
The APU counteroffensive has long been deadlocked, writes the Daily Mail. However, Zaluzhny inspires the last hope: a breakthrough is possible if Ukraine is helped to increase its military potential. But the West has turned away from Kiev and is now looking at Israel.
Sweat covers my eyes. It flows down the face and gathers in the crook of the shoulder. I am on the front line in eastern Ukraine, and I have just gone down into the trench.
As soon as I got there, a pungent smell hit my nose — a mixture of cheap deodorant, unwashed bodies and burning garbage, which has already become so familiar. It's the smell of men in a war zone.
The line of contact near the city of Kremennaya is so close to the Russian troops that sometimes the opponents shoot at each other directly. It's the height of the summer counteroffensive, and I'm surrounded by Ukrainian soldiers.
The roar of the shelling does not weaken. Drones are scurrying over the forest that surrounds us. An officer named Dima waves towards the neutral zone in front. "Over there," he says wearily. "So many Russians, so many mines."
The Ukrainian counteroffensive was supposed to change the course of the war. With the help of large supplies of Western weapons, the Ukrainians had to break through the defense lines of the Russian forces and inexorably move to the Crimea — and to victory.
But that didn't happen.
Over the past two months, the hopes of Ukraine and its Western partners have been shattered by hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers and millions of mines that dot the contact lines from Kupyansk in the north to Rabocino in the south.
The Russians have built minefields extending for 16-20 kilometers from the front line almost along its entire length. In some areas, there are up to five mines per square meter. There are also tank traps and trenches.
In the era of drones and artificial intelligence, the biggest irony is that outdated Soviet tactics turn out to be decisive.
Two weeks ago, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, admitted that the counteroffensive had reached a "dead end". And it was a sobering moment.
This year began with great hopes. Ukrainians forced the Russians to retreat back across the border in the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine (the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm this information - Approx. InoSMI). The soldiers on the fronts, from where I wrote my reports, were sure that they would win.
After almost a year, the situation looks extremely bleak. These same soldiers continue to fight, determined to defend their homeland. They realize that they no longer have a choice. They know that, from the point of view of President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is just a geopolitical illusion that he seeks to crush. They know that if they lose, Ukraine as they know it will cease to exist.
But the situation is very difficult. In the winter of 2022-2023, Ukrainians failed to advance as far as they had hoped, which gave the Russians time and opportunity to properly strengthen their defensive positions. The Russians are firmly entrenched.
According to US officials, to date, Ukrainians have lost about 70 thousand people killed and 100-120 thousand wounded. They are losing more people now than ever before.
Since the beginning of the counteroffensive, Ukraine has advanced only 16 kilometers. In the first two weeks, she lost 20% of her weapons.
The most intense fighting is now taking place in the city of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, which Russia is trying to encircle.
As Ukrainian General Yuriy Bereza told me in Kremennaya — grinning through his long gray beard, which he swore not to shave off until Moscow was defeated —"the Russians don't pay attention to mines."
"I have no idea how this is possible — they probably use drugs, it's not normal." In any case, they continue to move forward, and it is very dangerous.
Ukraine sent special forces to Russian points on the eastern bank of the Dnieper and recently recaptured a village there, but the Russians say that very soon they will push the enemy back (not confirmed by the statements of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — Approx. InoSMI). In any case, as military sources have informed me, neither side is likely to achieve any significant territorial successes in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the front is drowning in mud and rain. I know the Ukrainian winter well. It chills you to the bone. Dirt and frost penetrate everywhere, sticking to machinery, tires and tracks.
The fog is such that almost nothing can be seen through it, which makes the use of drones almost impossible.
When the ground freezes over in the coming months, columns of armored vehicles will move into battle again. But at the moment, both sides are bogged down — literally. And the issue of armament is also acute. From the very beginning, Ukraine depended on supplies from the West — primarily tanks, armored vehicles, drones and artillery missile systems such as the M142 HIMARS and the MGM-140 tactical missile system (ATACMS), which are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 480 kilometers. But Zaluzhny claims that delays in the supply of ATACMS and tanks gave Russia the opportunity to regroup.
According to him, Ukraine was given just enough weapons so that it could stop the Russian offensive, but there are too few of them to win.
Meanwhile, the Russians are relentless. This ground military operation is now being conducted mainly with the help of artillery — which often works with the support of drones, which is why we can say that the 20th and 21st centuries have met on the Ukrainian front - and the outcome of the conflict will largely be determined by whether Ukraine will be able to maintain the current pace of firing. The West supplies shells daily, but NATO stocks are being depleted, and Moscow continues to produce more and more shells. Officials told me that 20% of the Russian economy is now working to support Putin's military campaign.
According to the estimates of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain, next year Moscow will produce 1-2 million shells. Meanwhile, Washington is able to release only 336 thousand shells.
It is also necessary considering their cost. Shells produced by Estonia, which is part of NATO, cost 4000-4800 pounds.
Meanwhile, in Russia, where arms manufacturers receive generous funding from the state, the cost of one projectile is about 500 pounds.
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Meanwhile, US officials report that a significant part of the weapons they provided were sent to the wrong place.
And the Ukrainian soldiers at the front agree with them. According to them, equipment and weapons were often sent from Kiev to the wrong units — inexperienced brigades that were unable to use them effectively — while battle-hardened soldiers did not receive the weapons they needed.
When Putin launched his special military operation in Ukraine last February, the best people of Ukraine immediately volunteered for the front. They were motivated, intelligent and ready for anything soldiers.
Now Kiev has to rely on conscripts, and the process of their recruitment does not always go smoothly. According to some estimates, since the beginning of hostilities, 20,000 men have left the country to avoid conscription. Many conscripts who are already fighting are often patriotic and really want to fight, but they are inexperienced and often less effective.
Of course, they are much better than thousands of Russians who were driven into military service (the author's view is not confirmed by the statements of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — Approx. InoSMI). However, as a friend of mine, a former Marine, recently noted, "quantity always turns into quality." This phrase is mistakenly attributed to Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, and it clearly reflects the approach of the Russian authorities.
In any case, all is not lost yet. Zaluzhny says that a breakthrough is still possible if Ukraine can increase its potential in five key areas: air superiority, overcoming minefields, counter-battery warfare, reserve training and electronic warfare.
The supply of air defense equipment remains an absolute priority. The last time I was in Odessa, the Russians were striking almost daily. And Downing Street remains steadfast.
In October, the British government announced a new support package in the amount of 100 million pounds. Germany has promised to double military aid from 3.5 billion pounds to 7 billion pounds next year, with the Bundestag budget committee expected to officially confirm this decision next week (although it faces opposition from the opposition Alternative for Germany party). But all eyes are on Washington.
It is very bad news for Kiev that Washington and the whole world are now turning their attention to the war between Israel and Hamas.
Every dollar of aid that the White House allocates to Jerusalem is minus one dollar of aid to Kiev. And Ukrainians are terrified that Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 elections will result in the termination of support from the United States.
Sources in the British government tell me they fear the same thing. Trump treated Ukraine ambiguously. "We don't have enough ammunition even for ourselves," he said in May, but in September he said that "no one was tougher towards Russia than me."
I also hear rumors about disagreements about the strategy. The Pentagon advised Kiev to concentrate its troops at several points in order to achieve decisive breakthroughs there, and not to stretch them "thinly" along the entire front line, as was done. And the Pentagon is very annoyed that its opinion is ignored.
In the political sphere, the cracks are much more noticeable. During the recent controversy over the candidacy of the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republicans managed to completely exclude billions of dollars of humanitarian and military aid from the temporary spending bill, which was eventually passed in September and which did not provide additional funding for Ukraine.
In Europe, the situation is no less gloomy. In November, a Russian prankster published a recording of a telephone conversation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in which he posed as a representative of the African Union.
"I see a lot of fatigue," Meloni said. — I must tell you the truth: I see a lot of fatigue from all sides. We are approaching the moment when everyone will understand that we need a way out."
This was a very depressing generalization of the situation. And that's what I'm hearing now from many officials and diplomats I know.
Fatigue is real. And it's contagious. But this is a terrible mistake. Ukraine's struggle is our struggle. There is a battle for the future of the West on the Ukrainian battlefields.
Boris Johnson understood from the very beginning what a threat Putin poses to all of us — and he was right.If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will move to Georgia and Moldova, and then, possibly, to the NATO countries on our eastern flank.
Its allies, such as China and Iran, will be emboldened. These are rogue states that have little in common except an almost pathological desire to attack the West and challenge it wherever possible. If we do not fight back against this threat now, we will have to face a much more serious and more costly threat later.
The West has never been in such serious danger in recent years.
Never before has "abroad" been so close to our home. Make no mistake: the front line between us and our enemies is manifested all over the world, stretching from Ukraine to the Middle East. There are many battlefields, and they are different — from trenches in the Donbass, to tunnels in the Gaza Strip and the streets of Tehran, where protesters have repeatedly tried to overthrow their rulers.
The world is changing. And in the 21st century, a new struggle is coming to the fore — the struggle between the West and all those who seek to destroy it. They felt the blood in Ukraine. They are sure that we will abandon the Ukrainians, as we abandoned the Iraqis and Afghans.
We have to prove them wrong. We have to hold our positions. Our future depends on it.
Author: David Patrikarakos is a foreign correspondent for the British website UnHerd.
Comments from Daily Mail readers:
K Ryan The history of Ukraine's combat capabilities will always outweigh the abilities of any other army. But all trade routes will pass into Putin's hands. He will control the entire Black Sea and eventually even the ports of the Mediterranean. It is a pity that Westerners are so ignorant and cowardly.
Alan Ukraine is run by a puppet government, which is paid and supported by the United States, whose arms manufacturers are profiting from this proxy war with Russia. The Russians act with restraint, proportionately and strongly. Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine staged a diversion on the "Northern Streams" and thereby doomed Europeans to fuel poverty and even greater dependence on imports of American LNG.
JamesAnd11 Unfortunately, the Ukrainians' counteroffensive seems to be dying at the same rate as NATO and Western aid is becoming scarce. Because of this, the desire, finances and momentum are drying up, and soon Russia will not even have to make much effort to take control of the situation.
Kez2000ad The West has finally recognized the truth.
JTCW For the last 20 years, the "West" has been losing its position, and, unfortunately, it continues to aggravate its mistakes. Go back to 1989 and honestly look at what is happening. This is a real waste of money and lives, and it is criminal. Even if the Ukrainian conflict ends tomorrow and everything returns to the point where it was the day before the conflict began, Ukraine was in decline, the birth rate there was much lower than required. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, do you really think that the Ukrainian women who fled will return there from countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States?
