Zelensky admitted that the APU will begin to retreat without the help of the West
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that the Ukrainian army will have to retreat if the Western allies stop providing assistance to Kiev. At the same time, the new Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, during his visit to Kiev, assured the Ukrainian authorities of London's support. What and to what extent Ukraine needs in order to hypothetically win and how likely it is that Western countries will soon stop helping Kiev, the military observer of the Newspaper analyzed.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
"Right now I'm focused on getting help from the West. Their focus is shifting because of the situation in the Middle East. Without support, we will retreat," Bloomberg quotes Zelensky as saying.
He added that the APU began, for example, to receive fewer 155-millimeter shells.
It is at least incorrect to discuss the nature and scope of military assistance to Ukraine without analyzing the capabilities and intentions of Kiev's main sponsor, the United States (currently supplying more than half of the weapons and all material assets).
In this regard, let's imagine the situation - in the Situation Room in the White House (used for operational decision-making on emergency issues), the best geopolitical minds of the United States gathered under the chairmanship of Joe Biden. The main question of the meeting is how to deal with Ukraine.
With a high degree of confidence, it can be assumed that such an opinion would have been expressed at such a meeting - in order to reverse the situation on the fronts of the armed struggle in favor of Kiev, it is necessary to increase financing and supplies of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) and materiel (MS) from the West in general and the United States in particular by at least order.
A billion shells
Any war with the use of only conventional means of destruction (a high-intensity conflict, as they say) is characterized by a huge expenditure of material resources (and the bill in this case goes to millions of tons). An absolutely unthinkable number of guided missiles, multiple rocket launchers, projectiles for barrel artillery, mines, cartridges, and aviation weapons are required.
The number of shells should be measured in tens and hundreds of millions of pieces, and cartridges for small arms - billions. A million 155-mm shells, which the EU promises Ukraine only by March 2024, will have little impact on the conduct of hostilities.
We will have to create new facilities, factories, production lines, hire and train personnel and management. But in this case, the following collision is also possible (and this would certainly be discussed in the Situation Room) - for example, the US military-industrial complex has invested in the production of ammunition in the most significant way, large-scale production has just begun - and at this time the armed conflict in Ukraine suddenly (for one reason or another) ended (which cannot be ruled out in any way).
The captains of the US defense industry will then tell the political leaders of the country - well, now what should we do with your millions of shells? And where to put these mountains of metal and explosives? There is no clear and unambiguous answer to this question.
Not even enough for one division
The new Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, during his visit to Ukraine, "made it clear that the United Kingdom and its partners will support Ukraine and its people as much as necessary."
As you know, earlier the UK handed over to the APU only one company of Challenger 2 tanks (14 units, one tank has already burned down). Yes, even if David Cameron's government handed over to Ukraine all the Challenger 2 tanks that the United Kingdom has (227 combat vehicles), this amount would not be enough to man even one tank division.
Challenger 2 Tank
Image Source: Global Look Press
And if we assume that in an offensive operation of an operational-strategic scale, the norms of daily tank losses can be 90-100 units, then all Cameron tanks would be enough in this case for the first two days of intense fighting. And in words, the new foreign Minister of the United Kingdom is ready for the unconditional support of Kiev. So with such friends, Kiev does not need enemies.
Billions of dollars
Now about the money. Financing a country with victorious corruption is something else in terms of efficiency. Ukraine, to use astronomical terms, is currently at least a black hole.
The state borders of the country look like an event horizon. That is, any money that somehow crossed the border disappears into the abyss of this black hole absolutely without a trace. Kiev in this case looks like a singularity point. That is, in this city there are no ends to be found from financial transactions at all. And these comparisons do not look like a big exaggeration. If corruption in the military department of Ukraine begins with the ex-Minister of Defense (Alexey Reznik), then what can we say about ordinary functionaries in this case.
So to increase the financing of Ukraine at times in such an environment is courage bordering on stupidity.
And what is the goal?
Now about the most important thing. After all, politicians and strategists in the Situation Room of the White House should look at least 7-10 years ahead. And the answer to the main question for the United States and its allies is what are we fighting for? - as strange as it may seem, it seems not.
After all, Ukraine from the point of view of geopolitics and geo-economics as an asset and a possible object for future investments is not of particular interest. This country is not a crossroads of trade routes. Ukraine is neither Bab-el-Mandeb, nor the Strait of Malacca, nor Suez, and, finally, it has never even been a transit country.
There are no significant minerals in industrial volumes in Ukraine. The industry in the country is stuck at the level of the 1970s-1980s and for 30 years of independence it has been destroyed and plundered almost in full. Few people are interested in Ukrainian agriculture in the USA and the EU. Finally, the population has largely fled during the armed conflict and is unlikely to return to its historical homeland.
That is, in the Situation Room, the questions are - Where to invest? And for what purpose? And what will be the possible return? - surely they would have gone up too.
The military and political leadership in Kiev is trying to present their country at least as a redoubt on the way of barbarians from the East or a defensive rampart of Euro-Atlantic civilization, restraining the invasion of the Horde. However, such terms are only poetic metaphors and have no commercial value. Such roulades can only delight the ears of the leaders of the Baltic states.
Surely such a question would have been discussed in the Situation Room - whether to accept Ukraine into NATO in exchange for territories?. Such an idea, by the way, has been repeatedly voiced by some Western politicians.
Whatever it was, the situation in this region should stabilize, settle, crystallize, and it may take decades. And to imagine that tomorrow Ukraine's admission to NATO, and the day after tomorrow, in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter, the Belgians and Spaniards will go to fight for Bakhmut, is almost impossible. This is beyond the geopolitical and military realities. And there is no way to do without realities in assessing the situation.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for the newspaper.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy Commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist of "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
