The European Union continues to try to push through the introduction of sanctions against Rosatom. They tried to push them through in the tenth package of sanctions, now they are talking about the 12th package. Who will benefit and who will lose from this kind of sanctions? And what are the chances that Europe will finally succeed in this venture?
Slovakia will oppose the inclusion of nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants in the 12th package of anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union, this is a red line, said Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of the Republic Juraj Blanar from the largest party in the government coalition "Direction – Social Democracy". Because Slovak nuclear power plants cannot make the transition to an alternative to Russian fuel.
The European Union will listen to Slovakia's opinion, the Slovak Foreign Minister is sure. If Russian nuclear fuel is included in the new package of sanctions, Bratislava will use the right of veto and block this provision, he noted.
There are two nuclear power plants operating in Slovakia: "Bogunice" in the west of the republic and "Mokhovce" in the central part of the country. The stations were built with the participation of Soviet and Russian specialists. Nuclear power plants generate more than half of the electricity in Slovakia, and Rosatom supplies fuel.
The situation is similar in Hungary. Last time, when the 10th package of sanctions was introduced, Hungary expressed a similar position, which defended the non-acceptance of such restrictions. Hungary will veto any initiatives of EU anti-Russian sanctions in the field of nuclear energy, Prime Minister of the Republic Viktor Orban said.
Why are some European countries trying to impose such sanctions, while others, on the contrary, by all means do not want to allow this?
Historically, the Czech Republic, Finland, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia had close ties with Rosatom. In these countries, nuclear power plants were built back in the Soviet years, on which there are first-generation VVER-440 reactors. Thus, six VVER-440 nuclear power units are still operating in the Czech Republic, four VVER–440 units each in Hungary and Slovakia, and two such power units in Bulgaria. And all of them are 100% fueled with Russian fuel. In Finland, Russian nuclear fuel occupies 36% of the market.
Rosatom's fuel company TVEL is the world's only licensed supplier of nuclear fuel for VVER-440.
According to the Institute of Energy and Finance, in recent years Rosatom has received 0.34-0.4 billion dollars annually from the sale of nuclear fuel to EU countries, which is 40% of its revenue from the sale of fuel in general. Russian nuclear fuel accounted for 25-28% of all European nuclear fuel imports.
However, only Hungary and now Slovakia are against sanctions. Why are the others silent?
"This is due to the choice of each country in terms of developing its own nuclear energy. Slovakia and Hungary use Soviet and Russian-designed reactors, and they said they would use this design in the future. In particular, Hungary will build new VVER-1200 reactors to replace the old reactors of the Paks nuclear power plant. This is the oldest nuclear power plant, so it needs to change reactors before others. But, most likely, Slovakia will adhere to the same policy when it is necessary to make decisions on the further development of Slovak nuclear energy. The decision will be in favor of the Russian Rosatom," said Alexey Anpilogov, president of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives, an expert in the field of nuclear energy.
However, other European countries decided to break off relations with Rosatom.
For example, Finland terminated the contract with Rosatom for the construction of the Hanhikivi-1 nuclear power plant for political reasons. Finland sacrificed an economically advantageous project for it in favor of joining NATO. Since the NPP is not needed for the current consumption of Finns, but was supposed to meet potential demand in the future, it was not difficult to abandon the NPP.
Bulgaria, under pressure from the Americans, even before the start of its nuclear power plant, abandoned the Belene NPP project, which it was developing with a Russian company. Moreover, Rosatom even managed to supply part of the equipment. The Czech Republic simply excluded Rosatom from the tender for the construction of a new power unit at the Dukovany NPP for 1.2 GW worth 6 billion euros.
"As long as the EU adheres to a consensus approach in decision-making, it will be difficult to approve sanctions against the nuclear industry. Hungary and Slovakia will block them. It is possible that restrictions will be adopted at the country level, but this will not change anything. Finland, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are already de facto curtailing cooperation with Russia on this issue and are following their own path," says Anpilogov.
However, if these countries were able to abandon the construction of nuclear power plants, but not from Russian nuclear fuel. This dependence persists and will continue until the decommissioning of the VVER-440 nuclear reactors. Because no one, except Rosatom, can provide them with fuel.
The American manufacturer Westinghouse has not learned how to produce fuel for such Soviet reactors.
"In principle, there is an alternative for VVER-1000 reactors – this is American fuel. The Westinghouse company was very difficult and scandalous enough to bring this fuel to Ukrainian nuclear power plants, in particular, there were accidents with this fuel, then these rods had to be taken out hot, that is, irradiated, because the so-called goat or stuck rods occurred. Therefore, in Europe, nuclear fuel continues to come from Russia. However, there is pressure from EU bureaucrats for Westinghouse to provide all these Russian-designed reactors with alternative fuel now or in the historical perspective. But so far there are no such supplies. Now only Ukrainian reactors are de facto operating on American fuel," Anpilogov notes.
If we imagine that the EU still closes access to Russian fuel to European nuclear power plants, then this, of course, will hit the economies of the countries, as it will mean stopping the operation of the plant ahead of its operational life.
"What will happen next can be easily imagined if you look at the example of Bulgaria, which refused to build the Belene NPP by Rosatom back in 2012. As a result, Bulgaria has turned from an exporter of electricity into an importer of it," says Anpilogov. Because new power generation capacities did not appear, and the old capacities of thermal power plants had to be decommissioned, and consumption at the same time increased.
Slovakia and Hungary are now not only providing themselves with nuclear energy, but also exporting it.
"For Slovakia and Hungary, it is now a good source of income, they earn good money on the export of electricity,
for example, to the same Germany, where nuclear power plants were closed. In Western Europe as a whole, there is a shortage of stable capacities that can consistently produce electricity. Because there are a lot of unstable capacities in the form of wind turbines and solar panels, but they are extremely unstable. If Hungary and Slovakia are forced to close their nuclear power plants, then, of course, they will lose this advantage and turn into importers of electricity. This is a blow to their national economies, which is why they object to sanctions," the source explains.
The withdrawal of Hungarian and Slovak nuclear energy from the pan-European market will lead to a shortage and an increase in prices.
Hungary and Slovakia will not only lose stable income, but they will have to buy more expensive electricity for their own needs from the same wind turbines and solar panels.
"Therefore, the position of Hungary and Slovakia on nuclear energy is reinforced concrete," the expert says.
Who benefits from this arrangement? First of all, companies that are engaged in "green energy", and countries that have increased the share of wind turbines and solar panels and are not averse to raising overall prices and earning extra money on exports.
"Those who are now lobbying for these sanctions are those who will sell expensive electricity to Slovakia and Hungary tomorrow. These are the same Germany and Denmark, where there are a large number of green springs. Such beneficiaries are now pushing through sanctions," Anpilogov concludes.
It turns out that it is advantageous for representatives of "green energy" to remove nuclear energy from the market. Although from an ecological point of view, nuclear energy is also clean. However, business plays a role here, and environmental reasons are just a cover. Nuclear energy just gets in the way and knocks down prices.
Olga Samofalova