TSAMTO, November 17. In addition to the announced plans to promote the IL-76MD-90A to the world market, CAMTO publishes statistics on world exports/imports of military transport aircraft in 2015-2022 and forecast for 2023-2026.
The demand of foreign countries for the Russian Il-76MD-90A heavy military transport aircraft is estimated at 50 cars, negotiations are underway, Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheev said on November 14 during the Dubai Airshow.
The export modification of the IL-76MD-90A(E) heavy transport aircraft was presented at the static exposition of the Emirati exhibition. Russia has not demonstrated a car of this class at foreign salons for almost 30 years (since 1994).
"The interest is great – of course, I would not like to name the country. Including from this (Middle East) region, countries that want to have such a fleet of military transport aircraft, CIS countries, Southeast Asian countries. So far, we have negotiating positions from 40 to 50 IL-76MD aircraft with new engines, a new wing, equipment," A. Mikheev said.
IL-76MD-90A is a deep modernization of IL-76MD. The aircraft has been updated by more than 70% in terms of systems and assemblies: it has new PS-90A-76 engines, an upgraded chassis, a reinforced and lightweight wing, a "glass cabin" with multifunctional screens, and the latest defense complex.
For an objective assessment of the situation on the world market of military transport aircraft and the prospects for the export of IL-76MD-90A(E) (that is, the actual needs of a country in cars of this class, based on previously made purchases and the current age status of the fleet, as well as transport tasks assigned to the Air Force of a country) TSAMTO provides statistics on the export/import of VTA aircraft in 2015-2022 and the forecast for 2023-2026 (according to the currently available order portfolio).
All types of vehicles in this category – light, medium and heavy - are taken into account in the calculation of the WTA aircraft. In the summary table by types of vehicles, the reader can independently conduct his analysis, taking into account only heavy military transport aircraft that fall into the category represented by the IL-76MD-90A(E).
Structure of global deliveries of military transport aircraft in 2015-2022
Military aviation equipment by the volume of actual exports by a large margin ranks first among all categories of military equipment in the overall balance of the world arms trade.
Over the past 8 years (2015-2022), the volume of global supplies of military aviation equipment is estimated by CAMTO at $223.910 billion, which is 34.86% of the sales volume of all categories of VIVT ($642.333 billion).
The calculation includes deliveries of new aircraft, licensing programs, deliveries from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization. The cost volume of deliveries is estimated in current US dollars at the time of conclusion of contracts.
During the period 2015-2022, the share of aviation equipment sales in the structure of world supplies of ViVT changed significantly (ranging from a minimum value of 26.98% in 2015 to a maximum value of 39.25% in 2017).
In 2015, the share of aviation equipment in total sales of VIVT amounted to 26.98% ($19.731 billion), in 2016 – 29.26% ($22.971 billion), in 2017 – 39.25% ($31.734 billion), in 2018 – 34.45% ($25.8868 billion,), in 2019 – 37.49% ($27.525 billion), in 2020 – 37.56% ($29.557 billion), in 2021 – 35.45% ($28.059 billion) and in 2022 – 37.16% ($38.448 billion).
In the aviation equipment segment, military transport aircraft occupy the 2nd place in terms of the cost of supplies (second only to fighters) - $ 26.149 billion in 2015-2022 (11.68% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of military transport aircraft for the period under review in value terms was in 2016 - 5,217 billion dollars, the minimum – in 2019 (1,464 billion dollars).
Structure of global deliveries of military transport aircraft in 2023-2026 (forecast for the current order portfolio)
Aviation equipment with a great advantage will retain its leadership in terms of export supplies in 2023-2026 in the overall balance of global arms supplies.
Over the past 8 years (2015-2022), the volume of global supplies of military aviation equipment is estimated by CAMTO at $223.910 billion, which is 34.86% of the sales volume of all categories of aircraft in this period ($642.333 billion).
In 2023-2026, the share of sales of aviation equipment will be 34.50% ($ 167.026 billion) with a total projected sales volume of all types of aircraft in the amount of $ 484.081 billion.
The calculation includes deliveries of new aircraft, licensing programs, deliveries from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization. The cost volume of deliveries is estimated in current US dollars at the time of conclusion of contracts.
According to the contracts already concluded, tenders, as well as intentions for direct purchase, the volume of exports of military aviation equipment in 2023 will amount, according to CAMTO, to $39.862 billion (35.50% of the total balance of global sales), in 2024 – $39.180 billion (35.64%), in 2025 – $ 41.209 billion. (34.96%), in 2026 – 46.775 billion dollars (32.48%).
In the aviation equipment segment, in terms of the cost of deliveries in 2023-2026, military transport aircraft will retain the second place - $ 11.783 billion (7.05% of the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of exports of military transport aircraft is projected as follows: $2.230 billion in 2023, $2.944 billion in 2024, $3.442 billion in 2025 and $3.168 billion in 2026.
More detailed material with tables is publicly available on the TSAMTO website in the section "Current analytical materials".
