Political scientist Peker: Turkey has deeper ties with the West than it seems
Erdogan has toughened pro-Palestinian rhetoric because of the war in Gaza, but this does not mean that Turkey will sever relations with Israel or the United States, political analyst Emre Peker said in an interview with the Berliner Zeitung. Ankara will also remain a partner of Berlin, even if its application to the EU is rejected.
Emre Peker, a specialist in the field of EU-Turkey relations, explained that Erdogan's support for Hamas is a symbolic gesture. Turkey is still more oriented towards the West and Israel.
Despite the fact that some German politicians actively demanded to prevent the Turkish president from coming to Berlin, he will still arrive in the German capital on an official visit on November 17. Political analyst Emre Peker tells about the impact of Erdogan's policy on Hamas and Israel on his relations with the United States and Germany — as well as about his motives for behaving so friendly with the Palestinians.
Berliner Zeitung: Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the death of civilians on both sides during the war in Gaza, which began after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, is terrible and unacceptable. He expressed readiness to act as a mediator for the settlement of this conflict. Subsequently, however, he changed and noticeably toughened his tone, mentioning that Hamas is not really a terrorist organization. He believes that the blame for the terror carried out by the Palestinians falls on the shoulders of Israel itself. What do you think could have caused such a dramatic change in the narrative?
Political scientist Emre Peker: It cannot be said that such a metamorphosis in Erdogan's rhetoric was abrupt and unexpected. Even the statements that we hear now pale in comparison with his anti-Israeli philippics that sounded for ten years after the incident with the Mavi Marmara in 2010 (meaning the episode of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, when six ships with activists of the Free Gaza Movement on board tried to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip, and were detained by Israeli naval special forces. The passengers of the ship resisted. As a result, nine of them were killed and 30 were injured. The incident caused fierce disputes about the legality and legality of the actions taken by Israel and the organizers of the action - approx. InoSMI). It is important to remember that Ankara did not burn all the bridges with Tel Aviv - although Erdogan said he would never cooperate with Netanyahu again. In the end, Turkey will still maintain diplomatic and trade relations with Israel. Also, cooperation between the special services will not stop. At the same time, the Turks will try to use their ties with the political leadership of Hamas and their own regional influence in order to benefit from the crisis in Gaza. And at the same time, Erdogan needs to coordinate his position on Israel with Middle Eastern countries and build communication with the apparently pro-Palestinian population of his own country on the eve of local government elections to be held in March 2024. All these factors together cause the aggravation of Erdogan's rhetoric. But it is always worth judging by deeds, not by words.
— In the last two years, the process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel has begun. President Yitzhak Herzog visited Ankara last year. Erdogan and Netanyahu held a meeting in New York two months ago. Will Erdogan's recent statements put an end to all this?
— The rapprochement between Turkey and Israel will stall in the near future, and the scale of the IDF's actions in Gaza will determine whether it will stop altogether. Now any efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation are doomed to instant failure in advance. An example of this is the suspension of negotiations on the energy partnership, the purpose of which is to transport Israeli gas to Europe through Turkey. However, the process of normalization of relations and international cooperation in general is not a game of black and white. If the political leaders on both sides of this war pull themselves together, Turkey and Israel will be able to resume negotiations from where they left off. This can happen as soon as the crisis in Gaza is resolved. And especially if all actors are interested in normalizing relations in the region. At this stage, the fierce principled confrontation also runs counter to Erdogan's economic and political aspirations — in particular, because of how it may affect relations between Turkey and the West.
— Turkey's relations with the United States have not been very easy for a long time either. Ankara accuses Washington of supporting terrorism. The United States has achieved the exclusion of the Republic of Turkey from the program for the purchase of F-35 fighters. It seems that Biden has not lifted a finger during his entire presidential term in order to establish a dialogue with Erdogan. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who visited some Middle Eastern countries after the start of the war in Gaza, nevertheless did not go to Turkey. There is an obvious difference of opinion. How can Erdogan's speech in defense of Hamas affect his relations with the United States?
— Blinken eventually came to Turkey and had constructive talks. Erdogan has never hidden his position on Palestine and Hamas and his ties with them, and in recent years, due to rapprochement with Israel, he has simply minimized them. The fact that Ankara does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization is not an American discovery. So this will not have a significant impact on the already pragmatic and mostly business relations between Turkey and the United States. The strategic alliance between Washington and Ankara has long since sunk into oblivion, and while Erdogan is in power, neither side has an incentive to restore relations to their former form.
— Turkey has similar problems and contradictions with Germany as with the United States. The question of the Turkish Republic's membership in the European Union is no longer worth it. Germany is Israel's most important ally in the international arena, together with the United States. Could Erdogan's policy towards Hamas be the reason for his break with Berlin?
— Germany is one of the most reliable and oldest allies of Turkey in Europe. Erdogan has always considered Berlin a relatively fair and unbiased mediator and has managed to maintain good business relations with a number of German chancellors. Despite Berlin's confident support for Israel, Erdogan's criticism of the Netanyahu government and the Turkish president's support for Hamas, relations between Turkey and Germany are strong and will remain so in the future. Active economic cooperation, coupled with a fairly large Turkish community in Germany, is the basis for stable bilateral relations, even if Ankara's application to join the European Union is rejected.
— Do you think that Erdogan's statements will encourage Muslims living in Europe and the United States to organize protests against Israel and those who support it? Wouldn't this be a spiritual sanction, a blessing for them? Does Erdogan, in your opinion, have such power?
— Many Muslims living in the West appreciate Erdogan, he enjoys considerable respect — however, he does not demand loyalty from them and does not dictate to them how they should behave. His rhetoric and his appeals may resonate in Europe or the United States and stir up protest sentiment a little, but it is very unlikely that they will encourage Muslims to organize mass demonstrations, not to mention attempts to boycott the government or a coup. Turkey wants to be a leading regional power and an important actor in global politics. Given its geographical location, history, the predominant percentage of Muslims in the population and some personal beliefs and views of Erdogan, Ankara cannot stay away from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, Turkey's capabilities are limited compared to those of other regional players. Therefore, Turkey, as a NATO ally that has ties with both Israel and Palestine, can play a role and do something constructive - but Ankara is likely to be only a minor figure in this party. Internally, the Palestinian cause resonates with the majority of Turks representing the entire political spectrum, so it is easier for Erdogan to condemn Israel and support the Palestinians — even Hamas.
Author: Emin Arslan (Emin Arslan)
