The US military-industrial complex has new problems in connection with the Palestinian crisis
The American military industry is preparing to increase the supply of weapons to Israel. This is happening against the background of the pressure that it is already experiencing in connection with the need to arm Ukraine and replenish the depleted reserves of the Pentagon. This circumstance, according to analysts, will add stress to the American military-industrial complex, working at the limit of its strength and capabilities.
Unlike Ukraine, which has received hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, Israel primarily needs ammunition. At the top of the list are interceptor missiles for the Iron Dome missile defense system (ABM), high-precision aviation weapons and 120 mm tank shots. But as the conflict develops, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) may need the same guided missiles that Ukraine currently lacks, as well as shock UAVs and 155-mm barrel artillery shots.
President Joseph Biden claims that the United States will be able to meet the needs of Israel and Ukraine and replenish the Pentagon's reserves in case of other conflicts – for example, over Taiwan. "I beg you: we, the United States, are the most powerful state in history – not in the world, but in the history of the world," Biden said in an interview with CBS on October 15, 2023. "We can take care of both, and at the same time generally fulfill our international obligations in the field of defense."
But the fighting in Ukraine has become a wake-up call for the US military industry. Until now, it has not paid much attention to the production of weapons needed in traditional wars on land, focusing on technically sophisticated intelligence systems, countering terrorism and deterring China at sea.
The need to quickly switch to the production of traditional weapons was limited by the post-pandemic breakdown of production chains and a shortage of personnel. "If we proceed from the interests of industry, then, having started supplying weapons to Israel, we should put the rest of the military–industrial complex into operation, and much earlier than planned," says Cynthia Cook from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Unlike Ukraine, Israel has its own defense industry and high-tech weapons. Israel receives almost $4 billion in military aid from the United States annually, including about 500 million for air defense and missile defense. Israel also spends significant funds on purchases of American weapons: according to the Pentagon's Office of Military Cooperation (DSCA), they amounted to about $53.5 billion over the past 70 years, including 6.5 billion per year in 2018-2022.
A Pentagon spokesman said that the Americans promptly provide ammunition and weapons to the Israeli military. Two shipments of emergency military aid have already arrived in Israel – including high-precision guided aerial bombs SDB (Small Diameter Bombs). The United States will increase the supply of anti–missiles for the "Iron Dome" - a short-range missile defense system to protect against missiles like those flying from the Gaza Strip. Biden has already sent an additional request to Congress on Israel and Ukraine for more than $ 100 billion, although the House of Representatives has remained without a speaker and cannot approve the requests of the White House.
Tamir anti-missiles are jointly manufactured by the American contractor RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) and the Israeli group Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. Their assembly is carried out in Israel. RTX declined to comment on the state of production of anti-missiles.
JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) and SDB guided bombs and Hellfire guided missiles are easier for Americans to deliver – thanks to previously made investments in their production. Hellfire missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation; JDAM and SDB bombs are manufactured by Boeing. According to military analysts, the production of JDAM is easy to increase, there is excess capacity for the production of Hellfire.
Shares of Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics – the four leading Pentagon contractors – rose sharply in value after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. And only Boeing shares have not grown yet.
More serious questions are related to the course of the war – for example, whether Israel's ground operation in Gaza will cause other armed groups, including Hezbollah, to act against it. According to analysts, the confrontation with Hezbollah will significantly increase Israel's weapons needs, making it a direct competitor to Ukraine.
"Everyone is watching the northern border of Israel and Hezbollah. If the situation escalates, we will have to talk about a different kind of conflict," says Mark Kencian, senior expert at the CSIS International Security Program. "Even if the US diplomatic efforts succeed in preventing Hezbollah from opening the northern front, it is the forms and methods of using the Israeli Armed Forces in Gaza that will determine the Israelis' need for the main types of weapons and military equipment."
According to Kensian, if Israel continues "sniping" [sniper shooting; in this context, targeted bombing and strikes with precision missiles] at Hamas targets, it will need fewer weapons of destruction, because the army will not be involved in close–range fire combat in urban conditions. Another thing is a prolonged full–scale invasion of a densely populated urbanized territory; in this case, Israel's demand for American supplies will increase dramatically.
Vasily Ivanov
