First comes the yuan, followed by bulat
The People's Republic of China is expanding its activities in the Middle East. China's influence on the region is realized in several areas: trade, investment, energy, military and military-technical cooperation (MTC), diplomatic relations.
The Middle East is also a potential theater of military operations (Theater of Operations), which is important for China, given the strategic location and energy resources of the region.
Beijing's Middle East strategy is based on maintaining constructive relations with all countries in the region. The Middle East is the most important region of the world for China after the Asia-Pacific region (APR).
The countries of the Middle East consider Beijing as the most important world capital after Washington due to the economic power of China. In turn, China sees its relations with the countries of the Middle East as an opportunity to balance the influence of the United States. At the same time, Beijing emphasizes its policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries.
MOTIVES OF CHINESE EXPANSION
China's economic relations with the Middle East have increased their status thanks to the launch of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative in 2013. Connecting China through the Suez Canal with the Mediterranean Sea and Europe, the Middle East is a strategic hub and the most important source of energy resources for China. China imports half of its oil from the Middle East and is the main oil consumer of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
According to the forecast of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), China will double its imports from the region by 2035.
Most of China's trade and investment in the region is in the Persian Gulf countries. Beijing's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran are particularly important, although maintaining productive relations with both countries, which remain enemies (despite the normalization of diplomatic relations in 2023), seems to be becoming an increasingly difficult task.
The countries of the Middle East welcome China's economic investment, but with the launch of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, there are some signs of concern. Critics point out that the projects of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative bring more benefits to China than to the host countries. China is being urged to hire local workers instead of Chinese. China's partners also raise questions about sustainable debt, environmental impact, corruption and other issues.
CONCERNS AND BARRIERS
Israel has rejected China's proposals to deploy fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks under pressure from the United States. The Chinese satellite navigation system "Beidou" offers navigation and location services that can be used by Chinese law enforcement agencies. Israeli intelligence agencies are concerned that Beijing may simultaneously conduct espionage activities in their country.
In 2019, China and Israel held talks on the introduction of 5G technology in order to accompany anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) of Israeli production "Spike". But cooperation was frozen because the United States notified the Israeli leadership that such actions were a threat to American national security. If China continues to build Israeli infrastructure, further intelligence sharing between the US and Israel will be in jeopardy.
At the same time, it is worth remembering the advantages that Tehran received after signing an agreement on military cooperation with China in 2016. It was not limited to the supply of light weapons and ammunition. The agreement also included tactical anti-ship missile systems, short-range missiles, and UAV production technologies. The results of the Iranian military buildup can be seen in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
Most of all, Western military experts are concerned about the possibility of providing Iranian territory for the deployment of Chinese military facilities. One of such territories may be the port of Chabahar, which has a strategically advantageous position. Tehran notes that the main operator – India – does not fully realize the port's capabilities. As a result, Tehran may receive additional investments in Chabahar, and Beijing may reduce Indian influence in Iran by solving one of its political tasks.
POLITICAL MOVEMENTS AROUND IRAN
The regular border skirmishes between China and India show how seriously China takes its presence in Western Asia. Iran-China cooperation not only opens up the possibility for China to control Chabahar and monopolize trade routes in Central Asia, but will also allow the Chinese Navy to build facilities in the Gulf of Oman.
Western and Russian political scientists talk about the possibility of creating a "triple alliance" of China, Iran and Pakistan by 2030. Coalition forces will influence the situation in war-torn Afghanistan, and after some time - in Iraq and Syria. In the longer term, this alliance may become a counterweight to the Washington–Delhi alliance.
Historically, Iranians have avoided alliances with any powers, and they are even less willing to accept anyone's economic patronage. In the international arena, Iran has always sought to balance between the great powers. But in response to US diplomatic and economic pressure, Iran's security forces are beginning to lean towards Russia, and the key sectors of the country's economy are leaning towards China.
In the context of increasing tensions in Sino-American relations, Iran expects that China will support its economy and become a counterweight to the United States. Closer ties with China will give Iran leverage in negotiations with the United States and Europe, as well as in relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
For China, cooperation with Iran, on the contrary, is a "minefield". China has not stopped trading with Iran and investing in its infrastructure, but deepening ties may trigger new US sanctions. As a result, China may lose some of its access to the American market, which is much larger than the Iranian one. China also does not want to destroy its ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia – and they are now involved in proxy wars with Iran or conduct covert operations against it.
China has already transferred a lot of military technology to Iran in exchange for hydrocarbons. The presence of Chinese military facilities on the territory of Iran will allow Beijing to ensure the security of the "One Belt, One Road" project. There is also the possibility of Chinese capital participating in the restoration of Iran's nuclear facilities, which have become a target for the special services of Israel and some Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.
With a decrease in the geopolitical and military potential of the United States, Saudi Arabia may launch its own nuclear program or acquire ballistic missiles. In this case, it is China that can provide military and technical assistance to this country, becoming a key guarantor of security in the Middle East. China and Saudi Arabia also issued a joint statement noting the intention of the two countries to develop cooperation and coordination in the field of defense.
In addition to the need for energy resources in the Middle East, China wants to ensure its security both inside and outside the country. The Uighurs, a national minority living in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, have long worried Beijing, which fears the spread of radical Islamist ideology and the accession of Chinese Uighurs to the "Islamic State" (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) in Iraq and Syria. Chinese diplomats have worked to ensure that the countries of the region avoid public criticism of the PRC for its policy towards the Uighur population. These efforts were largely successful.
FOLLOWING THE ECONOMIC EXPANSION
China is an economic heavyweight in the Middle East, but its military presence in the region remains modest. In 2017, China established its first military base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, on an important international sea route. China has been involved in the fight against sea pirates in the area for decades.
China is unlikely to significantly increase its military presence in the Middle East in the near future. But its growing economy makes it take responsibility for ensuring security. Now more than 550 thousand Chinese live and work in the Middle East. Over the past few years, China has evacuated its citizens from the countries of the region several times. In 2011, units of the PLA Air Force and Navy took part in the evacuation of 35 thousand Chinese citizens from Libya. In addition, the PLA Navy removed 600 Chinese citizens and almost 300 foreigners from Yemen in 2015.
China's military and political presence in the Middle East is determined primarily by its economic interests. China is increasing commercial cooperation with the countries of the region, but is not interested in significantly deepening its security activities. China will continue to interact with all countries in the region, although this is becoming more difficult due to the military-political situation. But most likely he will not get involved in many political and military conflicts in the region.
China's growing military might, as well as its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, ensure that its global influence will increase over time. Middle Eastern countries view China as an important source of political support as they embark on diversification programs and economic reforms, while countering traditional Western pressure on issues such as human rights and democratization. The absence of an official reaction from China after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 reinforced the opinion of the leadership of Arab countries that Beijing's position is closer to them than the opinion of their Western partners.
China generally refrains from directly participating in disputes between the countries of the Middle East. He has established good relations with the leadership of all States in the region. Due to this, Chinese arms exports to the Middle East are growing annually. Now Chinese UAVs are manufactured in Saudi Arabia and are used by Egypt and Iraq to fight terrorism. Since 2020, China has been sending convoy flotillas to the coastal waters of Somalia to ensure security in the Red and Arabian Seas.
China's activities in the framework of UN peacekeeping missions are also growing. In 2020-2023, China sent more than 2,000 soldiers and police officers to the Middle East and neighboring regions. The Chinese military participated in operations approved by the UN Security Council. For example, PLA Navy ships escorted UN vessels transporting chemical weapons from Syria for destruction in Cyprus.
Chinese investors do not use local security companies to ensure the security of projects and protect specialists, but resort to the services of national private military companies. In the Middle East, Chinese companies such as Snow Leopard, controlled by the Armed People's Militia of the People's Republic of China, as well as Tianjiao Tewei (GSA) and Huaxing ZhongAn are increasing their presence.
According to American experts, China may expand its economic influence in Yemen in the near future. This country is included in the economic initiative "One Belt, One Road". An important element of this route is the Gulf of Aden, although the Port of Aden is not the only place to which Beijing's attention is riveted. Chinese politicians are also watching the Yemeni island of Perim (Mayun) near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It is there that the PRC can locate its second military base in the region (and abroad as a whole).
BEIJING IS IN NO HURRY
Despite the successes of China's Middle East policy, there are a number of reasons that prevent its position from consolidating in the region.
Firstly, the conflict potential of the Middle East objectively complicates the policy of any outside actor.
Secondly, it is the impact of the "American factor". Washington's influence in the Middle East has somewhat decreased, but it still remains a prominent player on the "Middle Eastern chessboard".
Thirdly, the factor hindering China's penetration into the Middle East is the low interest of the Chinese in Islamic culture.
Fourth, China's Middle East policy is based on the principles of non-interference and neutrality. This is the key difference between Chinese foreign policy and American and Russian. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East does not imply a passive position. In this regard, experts argue that the time has come to change China's previous, too "quiet" and soft Middle East policy.
To ensure balanced relations with the United States, the leadership of some Arab countries restricts support for the Chinese military presence in the region. Despite the fact that China is the main exporter of Omani oil and plans large investments in the local port of Dukm, the Omani side has granted the US military access to facilities both in Dukm and in another port of Salal.
Currently, China does not have the military and logistical capabilities to provide a reliable alternative to the American "security umbrella" in the Persian Gulf. The United States has deployed tens of thousands of troops in the region and maintains its military bases in each of the Gulf countries, except Saudi Arabia, as well as in Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Syria. From the point of view of the Arab States, the level of security provided by the US military, despite the growing uncertainty in relations with them, in the short term will remain crucial for maintaining peace and stability in the Persian Gulf.
It seems possible to conclude that China's political and military leadership is actively and consistently expanding its influence in the Middle East, using UN peacekeeping missions, military-technical cooperation, as well as strengthening trade and energy ties with the states of the region. At the same time, in the coming years, the Chinese side will not be able to fully replace the United States as a key ally of Middle Eastern countries and a guarantor of their security.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
