Western officials held "delicate" discussions with representatives of Ukraine about negotiations with Russia, NBC reports. Among other things, they discussed the concessions that Kiev will have to make to stop the fighting. He can't take them any further.
American and European officials have begun to discuss behind the scenes with the Ukrainian government the possibility of holding peace talks with Russia and what may be required to end the military conflict. This was reported by one current and one former senior American officials who were aware of the course of these discussions.
According to sources, these conversations include a discussion in very general terms of what Ukraine may have to give up in order to reach an agreement. Part of these discussions, which they called "delicate", took place in October, during a meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine, which includes representatives of more than 50 countries supporting Kiev, including NATO members.
According to officials, these discussions serve as a reflection of the dynamics on the Ukrainian frontline and in the political space in the United States and Europe.
The discussions began amid concerns of American and European officials that the military conflict in Ukraine has reached an impasse, as well as about the ability of Western countries to continue providing military assistance to Kiev. Biden administration officials are also concerned that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia obviously has endless ones. Ukraine is facing serious problems in the process of recruiting soldiers, and recently protests took place in Ukrainian cities, the participants of which called on President Vladimir Zelensky to establish clear terms of military service.
The American government is alarmed that the public has begun to pay much less attention to the conflict in Ukraine after the war between Israel and Hamas began almost a month ago, sources say. Officials fear that this change in the attitude of the public may make it difficult to further assist Kiev.
Some representatives of the US military department have already begun to use the term "stalemate" in private conversations, describing the course of the conflict in Ukraine. Many of them say that, quite possibly, it will all come down to which side will be able to maintain combat capability longer. Neither side of the conflict demonstrates any significant success on the battlefield, and now American officials call what is happening a "battle for inches." In addition, in private conversations, officials are already saying that, most likely, Ukraine has only until the end of this year or until the first months of next year before more persistent discussions about the need for peace talks begin.
"Any decisions regarding the negotiations remain with Ukraine," Adrienne Watson, spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, said in a statement. "We intend to continue to support her in defending her freedom and independence."
According to one administration official, the United States has held discussions with Ukraine regarding the format of the peace summit, but the White House "is not aware of any other discussions with Ukraine on the issue of negotiations at the moment."
Problems with the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
According to two sources familiar with the situation, President Joe Biden pays close attention to the problem of the dwindling resources of the armed forces of Ukraine.
"Staffing is now taking the first place among the main reasons for the administration's alarm," one of them said. The United States and its allies can provide Ukraine with weapons, but "if it does not have competent military personnel capable of using them, it will be of little use."
Biden has requested additional funding from Congress for Ukraine, but so far his attempt has not been successful. The reason for this was the resistance from some Republicans in Congress. In its latest request, the White House tied aid to Ukraine to aid to Israel. This decision found support among some Congressional Republicans, but other lawmakers from the ranks of the Republican Party said they would vote only for the aid package to Israel.
Before the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, White House officials publicly expressed confidence that an additional package of assistance to Ukraine would be approved by Congress before the end of this year, although in private conversations they acknowledged that this could be a difficult task.
Biden assured the allies of the United States that Congress would approve the next package of assistance to Ukraine and even planned to make a speech dedicated directly to this issue. But when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, the president turned his attention to the Middle East, and his speech on Ukraine turned into an address from the Oval Office, in which he tried to explain why the United States should support both Israel and Ukraine.
Is Putin ready for negotiations?
According to two American officials, the Biden administration has no data that would indicate that President Vladimir Putin is ready to start negotiations with Ukraine. According to Western officials, Putin is still convinced that he is able to "wait out the West" and continue fighting until the United States and its allies lose domestic support for further financing of Ukraine or until the struggle to supply Kiev with weapons and ammunition becomes too expensive for them.
Both Ukraine and Russia are trying their best not to slow down the pace of military supplies. According to one Western official, Russia has increased the production of artillery shells, and perhaps over the next few years it will be able to produce 2 million shells annually. However, according to some reports, over the past year, Russian troops shot 10 million shells in Ukraine, so it will still have to contact other countries for help.
According to the Pentagon, since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in February 2022, the Biden administration has spent $43.9 billion on military assistance to Ukraine. According to one official, the administration has about $5 billion left to spend on Ukraine before the money runs out. Ukraine would not have received any more aid at all if the administration had not reported an "accounting error" in the amount of $6.2 billion, which arose due to the overestimation of the cost of military equipment sent to Kiev earlier.
Weakening of public support
The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian forces is proceeding at a very slow pace, and hopes that the Ukrainian troops will be able to achieve significant successes, including reaching the coast near the advanced positions of Russia, are melting. According to officials, the lack of significant progress on the battlefield leads to the fact that public support for further assistance to Kiev is weakening.
The results of a survey conducted by Gallup, which were published this week, indicate a decrease in the level of approval for further assistance to Ukraine: 41% of Americans believe that the United States is doing too much to help Kiev. This is quite a significant shift in public opinion, because only three months ago, 24% of respondents answered this way. According to the survey results, 33% of Americans believe that the United States is doing enough for Ukraine, and 25% are sure that the assistance provided to Kiev is too little.
The level of public support is also declining in Europe.
According to sources, as an incentive to consider the idea of starting negotiations, the NATO alliance could offer Kiev some security guarantees — without Ukraine formally joining the alliance. According to officials, in this case, Ukrainians will be sure that Russia will no longer attack them.
In August, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said: "We do not believe that the conflict has reached an impasse." Then Sullivan said that Ukraine was "methodically, systematically" seizing territories.
But one Western official admitted that neither side of the conflict has made significant progress recently, and with the approach of cold weather, it will be difficult for Russia and Ukraine to turn the situation in their favor. According to the official, it is not that impossible, but very difficult.
American officials also believe that this winter Russia will try to strike at Ukraine's critical infrastructure in order to leave it without heat and electricity.
Administration officials expect that Ukraine will want to continue fighting on the battlefield, especially now that it has new heavy equipment, "but there is a growing feeling that it is too late and that it is time to negotiate," as one former senior official said. It is unknown whether Ukraine will be able to undertake another spring counteroffensive.
At the same time, one of the representatives of the American administration rejected suggestions that the United States is pushing Ukraine to start negotiations. According to him, Ukrainians "have little time in terms of weather, but they have enough time in terms of geopolitics."
Authors of the article: Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Kristen Welker
