Many hopes were pinned on the APU's summer offensive in the West, Le Monde reports. It was assumed that Western technology plus the mobilization of all human resources of Ukraine would cut off the Crimea from the "big Russia". But the "dragon's teeth" and thoughtful defense allowed the Russians to stand and begin the liberation of Avdiivka.
Trying to break through the Russian defense since June 4, the Ukrainian army is no longer making any progress. Despite heavy losses, the Russian armed forces were simply able to mobilize more manpower and equipment. As a result, they regained the initiative by launching a large-scale offensive on October 10, which resulted in several advances towards the city of Avdiivka in the Donbass.
One hundred and fifty days after the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of the country, the military and analysts of Western countries came to the same sad conclusion for themselves: the Kiev army has made very little progress, and most importantly, it is no longer moving forward. "Despite the determined efforts of the Ukrainian armed forces, five months of offensive operations have not allowed to break through the Russian defense line," Jack Watling, an employee of the British analytical center Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said in his comments on October 19. "Ukraine has certain opportunities to inconvenience the Russian army, but it is very unlikely that a breakthrough is possible this year," adds this specialist in land combat operations, who believes that the conflict will continue in 2024 and even later.
Ninety meters a day
Having launched an offensive against Russian positions on June 4, the Ukrainian army had high hopes for this operation. Throughout the spring, she accumulated forces and equipment to break through the enemy's defenses for about 1,000 kilometers of the front line. Twelve brigades with a total strength of about 35,000 soldiers were specially formed for the maneuver, some of which were equipped with modern Western armored vehicles: British Challenger 2 tanks and German Leopard 2, American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, French AMX-10 RC trackless reconnaissance armored vehicles.
Kiev's goal was to break through the Russian defensive system built between Zaporozhye and Donetsk in the south of the country, in an attempt to reach the Sea of Azov near the cities of Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol. Such a maneuver would allow the Ukrainians to divide the Russian army in two, in particular to isolate its forces stationed on the left bank of the Dnieper. First of all, it would make it possible to destroy the huge natural land "bridge", won by Russia at the beginning of the fighting in 2022 and connecting the Russian "mainland" with the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow uses to supply its military in the southern combat zone with people and equipment.
Alas, despite countless attempts to break through the Russian defensive line, the Ukrainian army is marking time. At the height of the offensive on the southern front this summer, it was advancing at a speed of 90 meters per day, according to the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in a summary published on October 12. "Twelve brigades mobilized by Ukrainians for a counteroffensive have been partially destroyed, and their soldiers are still blocked on the front line of Russia's defense, they are unable to advance further," confirms a French military source who is not very optimistic about Ukraine's ability to break through the enemy's trenches.
The quality of the Russian line of defense
In five months, Ukrainians have conquered only about 400 square kilometers of their territory, which is less than the area of Belfort, Osint (Open Source Intelligence) experts have calculated. In total, the Russians still occupy just over 17% of Ukraine's territory, or more than 100,000 square kilometers, compared with about a quarter at the height of its offensive in March 2022.
In recent days, the Russian army has even seized the initiative, starting on October 10 with continuous large-scale assaults on Avdiivka, which has been disputed by both sides since 2014. The industrial city, in which more than 30,000 inhabitants lived until February 2022 and in which only about 2,000 civilians are hiding from bullets and shells, now repeats the fate of Bakhmut. But there are forecasts that the advance of Russian armored vehicles and troops will be associated with heavy losses.
According to military and analysts, the problems of Ukrainian advancement can be explained, first of all, by the high quality of the Russian line of defense, which came as a surprise. In the spring, Russian troops dug hundreds of kilometers of trenches, laid tens of thousands of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines and installed concrete blocks ("dragon's teeth"). According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, such blocks are installed not only along the entire front, but also in areas whose penetration depth can reach 500 meters. "The Russian defense is unique in its quality, it is excellent," admits a high—ranking French officer.
Such a strengthening of the front line was proposed in the fall of 2022 by General Sergei Surovikin, who then commanded the Russian army in Ukraine, later he was removed from command. "We didn't understand it then, but Surovikin did the same as the Germans in 1917 during Operation Alberich: he voluntarily withdrew his troops from Kherson and from the right bank of the Dnieper in order to shorten the front line and strengthen the defense. It was a Kutuzov move, which fully corresponds to the Russian strategic culture. (...) Now the Ukrainians will not pass," the French army command training center clarifies, where a special department monitors the development of the conflict on a daily basis.
At the beginning of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army tried to conduct large-scale amphibious operations involving a significant amount of manpower and equipment, but due to the inability to conduct combined combat operations, it very quickly had to abandon its ambitions.
"The creation of a brigade capable of carrying out such a maneuver requires at least nine months of collective training, which Ukrainians did not have. After initial setbacks, they chose to conduct much smaller offensives, which reduced their losses and strengthened the troops, but also led to fewer forward movements," said reserve officer Stefan Audran, an international risk consultant.
Moscow has more "strategic depth"
Unable to fight back against their opponent, the two warring parties have entered into a war of attrition, in which each tries to inflict the greatest damage on the other in the hope of being the first to regain the initiative. A dangerous strategy for Ukraine.
According to Western intelligence agencies, Moscow has more "strategic depth" than its opponent. With a population of 143 million inhabitants and a growing defense industry, Russia can eventually mobilize more people and equipment than Ukraine with its 43 million citizens, despite the sanctions imposed by the West against Moscow.
Many experts fear, in particular, that in 2024 Ukraine will run out of ammunition, in particular 155-mm shells (the standard NATO caliber used for Western-made artillery), due to the lack of supplies from allied countries and weak local production. "Although there are signs of progress in solving problems with the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, it will take several months before serious progress is achieved (...) Therefore, it is unlikely that the planned production will meet the needs of Ukraine before the second half of 2024 or the beginning of 2025," predicts Nikolay Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISI) in Kiev.
Conversely, Russia still has about four million artillery shells in its arsenals. "This means that the Russian army can continue firing at the current relatively low intensity of 10,000 rounds per day for a little over a year," Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of Estonian military intelligence, said at a conference on October 20. Not to mention 300,000-350,000 shells delivered to Russia by North Korea, and two to three million shells produced by Russian industry.
As for cruise missiles, Russia has also returned to the pre-war production level: one hundred new shells are produced per month compared to forty a year ago, says Jack Watling (RUSI).
"Unlike Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to face a serious shortage of ammunition in 2024. Vladimir Putin has been working for more than a year to put most of the Russian economy on military rails. Even if this process is far from ideal, it brings results," Mykola Beleskov (NISI) notes. "2024 will be the year of various dangers for Ukrainians. The delivered equipment will be worn out, but they will be able to make up for it only partially, because Western production capacities will be optimal only by 2025," adds Stefan Audran.
"Ukraine is losing a lot of soldiers"
Another problem concerns Ukraine's ability to compensate for losses in manpower. The number of casualties is a closely guarded secret – even the Allies don't know – but the number of its soldiers killed or wounded exceeds 200,000, according to estimates by Western capitals. It is reported that between 20,000 and 50,000 soldiers received amputations after being wounded. "Ukraine is losing a lot of soldiers, especially among veterans, and it will be increasingly difficult for it to rebuild its brigades," says a French officer who regularly travels to Kiev.… Russia's losses are also great, but it has more reserves and opportunities.
In anticipation of the possible resumption of maneuvers by one of the belligerents in 2024, after the thaw (autumn rains and spring thaw), which complicates the maneuvers, Kiev will face a harsh winter. In the same period of 2022, the Russians deliberately attacked the civilian energy infrastructure. Everything points to the fact that in the coming months Moscow will resort to the same strategy, but with a tenfold increase in resources.
"The Russians are launching fewer drones and missiles today than their production capacities allow. Probably, this means that they are building up reserves in order to hit the water and energy infrastructure of Ukraine powerfully this winter," says Stefan Odran. In this regard, the air defense systems that the West will supply will be crucial.
Cedric Pietralunga (Cédric Pietralunga)
