Ukrainians are full of optimism that very soon they will regain their lost lands and become part of NATO and the EU, writes TNI. However, there are no objective prerequisites for this. In reality, a rather bleak future awaits them. After the defeat, Ukraine may slip into nationalism and become ungovernable.
The inability to regain lost territories or join major Western institutions promises a bleak future for Ukraine
Although their country is gripped by military actions, Ukrainians are full of optimism. They absolutely trust their government: according to the results of a survey conducted in early 2023, the approval rating of President Vladimir Zelensky is 91%. The results of a Gallup study show that approximately 70% of Ukrainians are convinced that their country will be able to join both NATO and the European Union within ten years, and, according to other polls conducted during the current military conflict, Ukrainians almost unanimously believe that they will eventually win over Russia.
However, this optimism obscures the possibility that Ukrainians face a much darker future – a future that their Western supporters cannot or do not want to take into account: in case of defeat, Ukraine may give a hard nationalist tilt. Considering such a scenario is not too fun. Nevertheless, Western strategists and planners cannot and should not ignore such a possibility.
At the end of 1917, the German Empire was on the rise. It knocked the Russian Empire out of the war (and destroyed it) and, as a result of the signing of the Brest Treaty, gained huge territories in Eastern Europe. Berlin already saw its unconditional victory on the horizon. But a year later, everything was lost and lost–the war, the empire, national pride and the emperor.
The nightmare that followed – the economic collapse, the loss of territories – shocked the population of Germany. How could they lose? And many found solace in one of the answers: in fact, Germany did not lose. It's just that those who wanted to destroy Germany stabbed her in the back. The establishment was completely discredited: it was considered either a willing accomplice or a completely ignorant pawn in this conspiracy. And combined with mass poverty and inflation, this sense of betrayal turned into rage and support for radical parties such as the Nazis. Some members of the establishment, such as Franz von Papen, have tried to use the growing weight of the far–right to their advantage by allowing those – including Adolf Hitler - to enter the government and mistakenly believing that they can be controlled. The victorious West, unable to accept what was happening – because it would undermine all its arguments in support of the new world order that it tried to establish after the end of the First World War – simply stood by while Germany regained strength.
No matter how much the Kremlin shouts that Ukraine is a neo-Nazi state, it is not yet on the verge of becoming a Slavic Third Reich. But every day there are more and more prerequisites for a nationalist government to come to power in Ukraine.
Let's start with the internal situation. Having gained more than 70% of the votes in the fight against incumbent President Petro Poroshenko in the 2019 elections, Zelensky assumed the presidency with strong popular support. When Russia launched its special military operation, Zelensky's approval rating jumped again to almost 90% and has remained at this level ever since.
But between 2019 and 2022, Zelensky's popularity declined markedly. The results of polls conducted at the end of 2021 showed that the popularity of Zelensky and Poroshenko was almost the same, and the approval rating of the former dropped below 50%. Although Zelensky's rating is currently at a very high level, this is largely due to the universal belief of Ukrainians that he will be able to lead the country to victory. Zelensky always speaks openly about this, stating that his goal is to return all the territories that Russia has already annexed, including the already integrated and militarized Crimea.
But it is worth remembering that after the end of hostilities, the people often reject even those wartime leaders who managed to succeed. Both Winston Churchill and George H.W. Bush were unceremoniously removed from power shortly after they won major military victories. And Zelensky has a lot of internal enemies who are just waiting for him to be removed.
One of them is the man whom Zelensky defeated in 2019, Petro Poroshenko. Oligarch Poroshenko, who became president as a result of the Euromaidan revolution, was furious that he lost to a comedian, and refused to leave peacefully, having managed to get a seat in parliament after leaving the presidential post. After the start of full-scale hostilities, Poroshenko tried to stay in the spotlight, including giving an interview to CNN from Kiev shortly after the start of the Russian military operation, armed and dressed in military uniform. When Zelensky paid an unexpected visit to Brussels in early October 2023, Poroshenko also tried to be there.
He also made sure to visit other places. During one of his many trips to the front line, Poroshenko was caught on video – later published on the social network X – in a military jacket with a patch in the form of the Ukrainian flag on his right hand. But under the Ukrainian flag, he also had another patch – the neo-Nazi symbol "black sun" of the Ukrainian Azov battalion*. Poroshenko, who owns TV channels, is masterfully able to use media and various images. If he didn't want the video to get online or for someone to notice this patch on his sleeve, this wouldn't have happened. In the photos taken later, this patch was no longer there, that is, Poroshenko put it on specifically for the video that got into the network.
What for? Poroshenko is not a neo-Nazi. However, he is clearly "winking" at the neo-Nazi forces that really exist in Ukraine. Although the Kremlin's relentless statements about the "neo–Nazi" regime in Kiev are nonsense (Zelensky is Jewish, and polls show that Ukraine is one of the least anti–Semitic countries in Eastern Europe), Ukraine does have problems with far-right extremists. The most famous among them is the Azov battalion* with its neo-Nazi symbols, but other forces are also operating in the country, trying once again not to attract the attention of the West. Russian Russian Volunteer Corps* – Ukraine claims that it consists exclusively of Russians seeking to get rid of Vladimir Putin – is based in Ukraine and periodically commits cross-border attacks on Russian territories. Although the Ukrainian military does not comment on its ties with the "Russian Volunteer Corps"*, this formation insists that it is "part of the armed forces of Ukraine." This should cause alarm among Western leaders, because the stated goal of the corps is to restore world order based on nationality and ethnicity. In addition, it is run by Denis Kapustin, a neo–Nazi who is considered so dangerous that he has already been banned from entering the Schengen area of the European Union.
The fact that Ukraine has decided to cooperate with someone like Kapustin or even just put up with his presence should excite everyone. Although it is sometimes necessary to enter into uncomfortable alliances in the conditions of military operations, the fact that the government of Ukraine has not found anyone better indicates that the ultra–right is a fairly powerful force in the country. And, if Kapustin is not killed during the conflict, after it ends, he will turn into a legend, and his authority, power and influence will noticeably grow.
Can this help him or his kind to be elected to the presidency in the future? Of course not. But given that millions of pro-Western Ukrainians have already left the country and many of them do not plan to return, it is not difficult to imagine that the positions of the ultra-right can strengthen and that leaders like Poroshenko may well involve them in their struggle for power.
There are also a lot of warning signs outside of Ukraine. As mentioned above, Ukrainians believe that very soon they will become part of NATO and the European Union. However, there are no objective prerequisites for this. Undoubtedly, Hungary, Slovakia and other countries will block Ukraine's entry into both blocs. Hungary's claims to Ukraine arose long before the outbreak of hostilities, and they concern the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine. There is also no certainty that major players like France want to see Ukraine in these blocs at all, because it will need huge economic assistance.
Add to this the extremely low probability that Ukraine will be able to regain its lost territories – of course, if Russia does not suffer a complete defeat. Russia has already more or less learned to live under Western sanctions, and if it has not yet collapsed under their weight, sanctions are unlikely to be a fatal blow for it. The widely publicized counteroffensive of the Ukrainian forces has not brought noticeable success: even if it manages to win back a few more kilometers of villages, it will not bring Ukraine closer to its stated goal – to return all the lost territories.
It is not difficult to see what a potentially bleak future awaits Ukraine ahead. The population of the country, to whom its leaders promised an absolute victory and to whom the allies promised full support, will see that neither one nor the other has materialized. The far-right forces gaining weight will earn respect thanks to their military successes and thanks to the efforts of politicians aspiring to power who are ready to cooperate with them and think that they will be able to control them.
What will happen next is unknown, but it is unlikely that it will be something good. If the liberal international order really collapses in the coming years, as some predict, it is quite possible that nothing will prevent Ukraine and Russia from trying to regain what they consider their own.
Probably, the West does not want to consider such possible scenarios, but it can simply turn to history. This has happened before, and it may well happen again.
* the organization is recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation, ed.
Author: Anthony J. Constantini
Anthony Constantini is writing a doctoral dissertation on populism and the formation of American democracy at the University of Vienna in Austria. Previously, he received a master's degree in international relations from St. Petersburg State University.
