The Paris-Yerevan arms agreement is also important for Russia
The French will reform the Armenian army and equip it with new weapons that have "proven themselves well in Ukraine." Why does Paris and Yerevan need this, how is what is happening related to the position of the West regarding the events in the South Caucasus and how does all this affect Russia's interests?
On Monday, October 23, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan signed a very interesting package of documents on arms supplies with his French counterpart Sebastian Lecorny. France sells three GM200 radars – that is, three tactical multifunctional radar stations (radars), which, according to Lecorny, "have proven themselves well in Ukraine." A radar of this type is reportedly capable of detecting an enemy object at a distance of up to 250 kilometers, and it can be either an enemy aircraft that flies at a considerable altitude, or a small object like a UAV that moves at low speed close to the ground.
In the future, Armenia intends to additionally purchase air defense systems manufactured by well–known Thales and MBDA companies, as well as Mistral-type systems - that is, portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), which are designed mainly to destroy low-flying enemy aircraft or helicopters. In addition, among the announced nomenclature of future purchases are night vision devices from the Safran group.
Armenia used to buy weapons primarily from Russia. Now France has suddenly appeared on the horizon as a supplier. It turns out a paradoxical situation: a country that is a member of the CSTO buys weapons from a NATO country. And even more than that, the official newspaper Le Monde, no longer hiding, writes that we are talking about "unprecedented military cooperation" between the two states.
Yes, it so happened that historically France treats Armenians well, and she gave shelter to many, and they and their children later became part of French history and culture. Examples include singer Charles Aznavour, Formula 1 champion Alain Prost, football player and world champion Alain Bogosian, composer Michel Legrand and others. But it's one thing to give shelter to migrants, and another to organize arms supplies and aggressively promote yourself as an ally and, so to speak, to some extent a patron.
"Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, and Russia, which is considered an ally of Armenia, play a decisive role in the region. But recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh have led to big changes. Yerevan accused Moscow of abandoning it to the mercy of fate, not trying to resist the Azerbaijani forces. Moscow categorically denies the charges against her. It seems quite logical that Armenia intends to turn to the West in search of protection," Liberation writes .
Russia's point of view is well known – Armenia did not officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and refused to fight for it, so it is the current Armenian authorities who are to blame for everything that happened.
In turn, the latter prefer to blame Russia for everything, which, among other things, allows them to look for new allies among Moscow's geopolitical opponents. And Armenia's allies, taking into account all the circumstances, are oh so necessary.
The sale of French weapons to Armenia is carried out with many reservations that only defensive weapons are supplied. It is believed that after Azerbaijan captured Nagorno-Karabakh during a lightning operation, Baku may be tempted to solve its other problems (for example, to break through the corridor to Nakhichevan) again at the Armenian expense.
"For three years, the head of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has been demanding the creation of the Zangezur Corridor, which should link the main territory of his country with the Nakhichevan exclave and thus allow direct access to the borders of Turkey, his main ally," writes Le Monde.
The difference, however, is that Nagorno-Karabakh is still recognized by the world community as part of Azerbaijan, and an attack directly on the territory of the Armenian state will be regarded completely differently.
With surprising speed for the Western bureaucracy, it was decided to arm Armenia with French weapons. No less surprising is the fact that a very modest country immediately found money to buy not the cheapest, frankly speaking, weapons. The same Le Monde notes: "How Yerevan will pay for these weapons is not yet known."
The casket opens simply: the United States stands behind France, which is wary of Azerbaijan for a number of reasons. From their point of view, Aliyev is too rich, too closely connected with Turkey and spreads his influence too quickly. The way he solved the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh could not please the United States either.
Moreover, it became known that the French will be engaged in the reform of the Armenian armed forces. A French military adviser has also been appointed to Armenia. Armenian officers will be trained at Saint-Cyr and other prestigious higher military educational institutions in France. French instructors will help the Armenian army to improve combat tactics, including military operations in the mountains.
As we can see, it is not only about the purchase of radars and several MANPADS – there is a large-scale program that was developed not for a day or two and which is clearly not designed for one year. And it is today that the French authorities say that everything is being done in order to protect the independent state from a possible attack from Azerbaijan. There is no guarantee that tomorrow the image of the enemy in Yerevan will not be tried on Russia.
The Azerbaijani authorities responded to the supply of French weapons with joint military exercises with Turkey "Mustafa Kemal Ataturk 2023" near the territory of Armenia. Comments on the chosen name are superfluous – everything is clear, we can say, without words. At the same time, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, Armenian and Azerbaijani diplomats are looking for ways of a diplomatic settlement of the problems accumulated in the region, not anywhere, but in Tehran. The intention is good, but the East is too delicate even for the most experienced specialists.
There is no doubt that Armenia has a special role in the strategic plan of the West. At least the West is not averse to taking Armenia out of the sphere of Russian influence. Perhaps the goal of his maximum program is the formation of a springboard, which - provided the competent use of forces – can then be turned against Iran, against Azerbaijan or even against Russia. How Armenia will turn into such a springboard can be provided by different scenarios.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has already stated that an attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia is possible in the coming weeks. On the one hand, this is an unequivocal warning, and on the other, it is obvious that the Americans and their experts have already worked out various options for events.
Can the West "take under its protection" Armenia attacked by the enemy or defeated? The stronger the defeat, the greater the need for a defender, the more he will be able to afford in the future. And since the threat from Azerbaijan is constant, it is possible that it is under this pretext that the West will try to push its military bases in Armenia. At the same time, the Russian base will be closed under the pretext that cooperation with Russia has not met expectations.
Is such a development possible? So far, this seems unlikely, because the territory of Armenia itself is under the protection of the CSTO, and therefore Russia. However, the very fact of the agreement on the supply of French weapons to Armenia makes us think about the far-reaching plans of both NATO and the West as a whole to the South Caucasus.
Valery Verbinin
