Professor Kimball: changes in the Arctic pose a threat to NATO's security
The melting of ice in the polar regions is preparing new challenges for NATO, Canadian professor Anessa Kimball said in an interview with iROZHLAS. According to the expert, the alliance is not ready for them. In addition, the West is annoyed by Russia's Arctic strategy and China's plans, to which it cannot oppose anything.
Of all the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, the largest part of the Arctic belongs to Canada. As the planet warms, the ice in the polar regions is melting, and new challenges for the security of the alliance are emerging. "There are several Russian and Chinese companies that are trying to buy exploration rights in the polar regions," says Canadian professor Anessa Kimball, who came to the Czech Republic to get acquainted with the work of NATO centers in Central and Eastern Europe. The Canadian Center is about to open.
iROZHLAS: How do climate changes affect security?
Anessa Kimball: In different ways. Due to the fact that the ice will melt and the sea level will rise, some military bases located on the coast will be under water. And how to conduct military operations if there is no electricity or access to water?
In addition, climate change can lead to migration, and migration can call into question security. How can we cope with a large number of refugees and protect the borders? NATO is responsible for protecting the territories of all its members.
Thirdly, climate change creates a lot of problems. For example, there is a food shortage in Africa due to climate change. For us in Canada, climate change is an important topic because of our polar territories. Of all the members of the North Atlantic Alliance, Canada owns the most in the Arctic.
— And what problems arise in the polar territories?
— There are various challenges and risks to our security. There are few goods passing through the Arctic now because the ocean is mostly ice-bound. Only icebreakers can pass there, and we know about them. But if the ice melts, new trade routes will open in the Arctic, which will facilitate illegal traffic. Those who want to hide their activities will go through the Arctic, because it is less monitored than other regions. Therefore, you need to prepare for monitoring so that you can protect yourself.
— Will it be in the coming years?
— Over the past five years, traffic in the Arctic has quadrupled in summer. It's already happening. The Arctic is huge, and it is very difficult to track everything that happens there, unlike, for example, continental Europe, where there are borders, different radars and the like.
But to observe the sea expanses, and even such large ones as the Arctic, much more specialized equipment is required. Radars and other things that are suitable for tracking the airspace of Europe are not suitable for polar temperatures.
Tempting offers from China
— And what other risks are there besides illegal trade? Russia is very active in the polar regions, which has even developed an entire strategy for the Arctic and is building military bases beyond the Arctic circle...
— Another problem is the instability of the soil in the Arctic. Permafrost is melting. How will NATO ensure collective security if the soil melts and if the military facilities that stand on it fail? And this is already happening. Our scientists have already identified places where 20 years ago the earth remained frozen several meters deep, and now there is only a few centimeters of ice there.
As access to the polar regions opens up, it becomes easier to extract resources there. There are many assumptions about the size of the Arctic wealth that Russia and China would like to access.
— Is there any way to prevent them?
— This is difficult, which is confirmed, for example, by the Chinese project "One Belt and One Road". The Chinese have a lot of money. And in the polar regions, the local population lives poorly. Canada is trying to develop the regions where these people live, but they can still be attracted by tempting offers from Chinese companies. Their representatives come and say that, for example, they will build several kilometers of roads here in exchange for access to a particular area where something can be mined for 99 years.
— Is this already happening?
- yes. Several Russian and Chinese companies have already appeared, which tried to buy exploration rights in the Arctic. Moreover, they entered into negotiations with the indigenous population. However, Canada and other countries are trying to convey to these people that the offers that seem tempting today will not necessarily be really profitable in the long run. The problem is very serious, because neither Canada nor the United States have developed relations with local residents,
— What exactly can the North Atlantic Alliance do to ensure security in the Arctic in the face of the changes that await us?
— It is very important to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden. These two countries have territories in the Far North, there are icebreakers and other equipment. They will be able to contribute to the monitoring of the Arctic.
It is also necessary to work with the population living there and discourage companies that serve not Canadian, but foreign interests.
It is also necessary to educate people about the fact that what is happening in the Arctic will have consequences for the rest of the world. Besides, the Arctic is beautiful. Its nature is very diverse, and it needs to be protected. The Arctic requires attention, but not all members of the North Atlantic Alliance share a common opinion on the actions that need to be taken in this region.
— What are you talking about? Where do they differ?
— Some states are more interested in Arctic research aimed at the discovery of minerals, while others are against it. Canada is against it because it understands what consequences this will entail for local residents.
For example, the authorities of the Canadian province of Quebec and British Columbia, where there are many indigenous people, are more interested in protecting the climate. This topic resonates with voters under the age of 35, who are especially important for politicians. These voters are ready to pay increased taxes if their contributions are spent on combating climate change, and are ready to give more money to the army if the army participates in the fight against climate change.
— But how can the army fight climate change? Is it possible to seriously expect that, for example, the army will switch to electric vehicles?
— There is no question of the army sacrificing its combat capability. In the near future, the military will not charge tanks from an outlet. But armies contribute to environmental pollution, and this can be combated.
For example, in Canada, at one large military airfield, soldiers use electric vehicles. The same is now being implemented by the Americans, whose airfields are much larger than ours. In addition, in Canada, instead of new buildings for the army, old buildings are being redone according to new environmental standards.
— In a couple of weeks, the first NATO center of excellence will open in Canada, which will specialize in climate and security issues. You yourself came to the Czech Republic to study the work of centers of excellence in Central and Eastern Europe. But the general public knows little about the centers of excellence of the North Atlantic Alliance. What is it?
— Centers of Excellence play a unique role in NATO. These are international military organizations, but they are not part of the military command structure. They are not obliged to obey NATO orders. These are such kind of analytical centers that also train military personnel. They can carry out those projects for which the North Atlantic Alliance as such does not have time, because it is focused on its own work and its operations. Thus, the centers are important for the adaptation of the North Atlantic Alliance to future conditions. Thanks to this, the NATO command can focus on the current life of the organization and request expertise from one of the centers of excellence, if necessary.
The great advantage of the centers of excellence is that they can establish ties even with those states that are not members of NATO. This was the case with Finland and Sweden.
Author: Katerzhina Gruntova (Kateřina Gruntová)
