TSAMTO, October 25. In general, the total volume of world exports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) in 2015-2022 is estimated by the CAMTO at $642.333 billion.
Including in 2015 – $73,123 billion, in 2016 – $78,503 billion, in 2017 – $80.853 billion, in 2018 – $75.137 billion, in 2019 - $73.410 billion, in 2020 – $78.685 billion, in 2021 – 79.162 billion dollars and in 2022 – 103.460 billion dollars. This is stated in the upcoming publication of the "TSAMTO Yearbook-2023".
By value parameter, export sales volumes for the period 2015-2022 were distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – $223.910 billion (34.86% of sales of all categories of VIVT);
2. Helicopter equipment – $88.651 billion (13.80%);
3. Naval equipment – $72.630 billion (11.31%);
4. Armored vehicles – 64.330 billion dollars (10.02%);
5. Air defense assets – $59.367 billion (9.24%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $24.162 billion (3.76%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $12.854 billion (2.00%).
All other types of ViVT accounted for 96.429 billion dollars (15.01%).
Aviation equipment
Military aviation equipment by the volume of actual exports by a large margin ranks first among all categories of military equipment in the overall balance of the world arms trade.
Over the past 8 years (2015-2022), the volume of global supplies of military aviation equipment is estimated by CAMTO at $223.910 billion, which is 34.86% of the sales volume of all categories of VIVT ($642.333 billion).
The calculation includes deliveries of new aircraft, licensing programs, deliveries from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization. The cost volume of deliveries is estimated in current US dollars at the time of conclusion of contracts.
During the period 2015-2022, the share of aviation equipment sales in the structure of world supplies of ViVT changed significantly (ranging from a minimum value of 26.98% in 2015 to a maximum value of 39.25% in 2017).
In 2015, the share of aviation equipment in total sales of VIVT amounted to 26.98% ($19.731 billion), in 2016 – 29.26% ($22.971 billion), in 2017 – 39.25% ($31.734 billion), in 2018 – 34.45% ($25.8868 billion,), in 2019 – 37.49% ($27.525 billion), in 2020 – 37.56% ($29.557 billion), in 2021 – 35.45% ($28.059 billion) and in 2022 – 37.16% ($38.448 billion).
The leader of sales in the aviation segment are fighters – $ 139.590 billion in the period 2015-2022, which is 62.34% of the total sales of aviation equipment. The largest volume of fighter aircraft deliveries for the period under review in value terms fell in 2022 – $ 27.606 billion, the minimum – in 2015 ($8.172 billion).
The second place in the aviation equipment segment in terms of the cost of deliveries is occupied by military transport aircraft - $ 26.149 billion in 2015-2022 (11.68% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of military transport aircraft for the period under review in value terms was in 2016 - 5,217 billion dollars, the minimum – in 2019 (1,464 billion dollars).
The third place is occupied by basic patrol aircraft – $ 15.274 billion in 2015-2022 (6.82% in the total balance of aircraft supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of BPA aircraft for the period under review in value terms fell in 2022 – $ 2.474 billion, the minimum – in 2015 ($ 1.213 billion).
The fourth place is occupied by combat training aircraft (UBS) - $ 14.285 billion in 2015-2022 (6.38% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of UBS supplies for the period under review in value terms fell in 2022 – $ 2.575 billion, the minimum – in 2019 ($888 million).
The fifth place is occupied by tanker aircraft – $8,099 billion in 2015-2022 (3.62% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of refueling aircraft deliveries during the period under review in value terms was in 2014 - $ 2.115 billion, the minimum for 2017 - $ 157 million.
The sixth place is occupied by AWACS aircraft – $ 8,044 billion in 2015-2022 (3.59% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of AWACS aircraft for the period under review in value terms fell in 2020 – $ 2.405 billion, the minimum for 2015 - $ 596.5 million.
The seventh place is occupied by training aircraft (TCB) – $ 6.295 billion in 2015-2022 (2.81% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). The largest volume of TCB supplies for the period under review in value terms was in 2015 – $ 1.904 billion, the minimum – in 2020 ($ 253 million).
The eighth place is occupied by reconnaissance aircraft – $ 5.350 billion in 2015-2022 (2.39% in the total balance of aircraft supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of reconnaissance aircraft for the period under review in value terms was in 2017 – $ 2.966 billion, the minimum – in 2018 ($59.3 million).
The ninth place is occupied by attack aircraft and bombers – $ 823.4 million in 2015-2022 (0.37% in the total balance of aircraft supplies). The largest volume of deliveries of attack aircraft for the period under review in value terms was in 2016 – $ 157.9 million, the minimum – in 2018 (only $ 14.7 million).
General forecast of the development of the global arms market for certain types of weapons for the period 2023-2026.
This calculation gives a forecast of exports for certain categories of VIVT according to the existing portfolio of orders and intentions as of October 2023, subject to the terms originally stipulated in the contractual obligations, without taking into account force majeure circumstances (for example, the situation around Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as well as other possible unforeseen situations in the world in the next 4 years, which can radically affect the world economy).
General assessment of the situation on the world market of VIVT in 2023-2026 for certain categories of weapons
By value parameter, export sales volumes for the period 2023-2026 were distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – $167.026 billion (34.50%);
2. Helicopter equipment – $65,007 billion (13.43%);
3. Naval equipment – $61.376 billion (12.68%);
4. Armored vehicles – 53.313 billion dollars (11.01%);
5. Air defense assets – $41.926 billion (8.66%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $26,092 billion (5.39%).
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $13.642 billion (2.82%);
All other types of ViVT account for $55.698 billion (11.51%).
In percentage terms (the period 2023-2028 is compared with the period 2015-2022), all categories will retain their positions in the overall ranking.
Aviation equipment
Aviation equipment with a great advantage will retain its leadership in terms of export supplies in 2023-2026 in the overall balance of global arms supplies.
Over the past 8 years (2015-2022), the volume of global supplies of military aviation equipment is estimated by CAMTO at $223.910 billion, which is 34.86% of the sales volume of all categories of aircraft in this period ($642.333 billion).
In 2023-2026, the share of sales of aviation equipment will be 34.50% ($ 167.026 billion) with a total projected sales volume of all types of aircraft in the amount of $ 484.081 billion.
The calculation includes deliveries of new aircraft, licensing programs, deliveries from the armed Forces of exporting countries, repairs and modernization. The cost volume of deliveries is estimated in current US dollars at the time of conclusion of contracts.
According to the contracts already concluded, tenders, as well as intentions for direct purchase, the volume of exports of military aviation equipment in 2023 will amount, according to CAMTO, to $39.862 billion (35.50% of the total balance of world sales), in 2024 – $39.180 billion (35.64%), in 2025 – $ 41.209 billion. (34.96%), in 2026 – 46.775 billion dollars (32.48%).
The leadership in terms of sales in the aviation segment in 2023-2026 will be retained by multi–purpose fighters - $ 108.409 billion, which is 64.90% of the total projected sales of aviation equipment in 2023-2026. By year, the volume of fighter exports is projected (subject to the originally announced delivery schedules) as follows: $27.939 billion in 2023, $24.096 billion in 2024, $24.143 billion in 2025 and $32.231 billion in 2026.
The second place in the aviation equipment segment in terms of the cost of deliveries in 2023-2026 will be occupied by military transport aircraft - $ 11.783 billion (7.05% of the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of exports of military transport aircraft is projected as follows: $2.230 billion in 2023, $2.944 billion in 2024, $3.442 billion in 2025 and $3.168 billion in 2026.
The third place is occupied by BPA aircraft – $ 11.722 billion in 2023-2026 (7.02% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of exports of BPA aircraft is projected in the following volumes: $3,228 billion in 2023, $1,550 billion in 2024, $4,035 billion in 2025 and $2,908 billion in 2026.
The fourth place is occupied by UBS – $ 9.540 billion in 2023-2026 (5.71% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of UBS exports is projected as follows: $1.028 billion in 2023, $2.779 billion in 2024, $1.904 billion in 2025 and $3.830 billion in 2026.
The fifth place is occupied by AWACS aircraft – $ 9.385 billion in 2023-2026 (5.62% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of exports of AWACS aircraft is projected in the following volumes: $1.999 billion in 2023, $3.549 billion in 2024, $2.499 billion in 2025 and $1.337 billion in 2026.
The sixth place is occupied by tanker aircraft - $ 7,041 billion in 2023-2026 (4.22% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of tanker aircraft exports is projected as follows: $775.3 million in 2023, $2.024 billion in 2024, $2.909 billion in 2025 and $1.334 billion in 2026.
The seventh place is occupied by reconnaissance aircraft – 5,245 billion dollars in 2023-2026 (3.14% in the total balance of supplies of aviation equipment). By year, the volume of exports of reconnaissance aircraft is projected in volumes: $889 million in 2023, $ 913.3 million in 2024, $1.815 billion. in 2025 and $1.627 billion in 2026.
The eighth place is occupied by TCB – $ 2.356 billion in 2023-2026 (1.41% in the total balance of aviation equipment supplies). By year, the volume of TCB exports is projected as follows: $1.008 billion in 2023, $575.1 million in 2024, $432.5 million in 2025 and $340 million in 2026.
The ninth place is occupied by attack aircraft – 1.545 billion dollars in 2023-2026 (0.92% in the total balance of aircraft supplies). By year, the volume of exports of attack aircraft is projected in volumes: $765 million in 2023, $ 750 million in 2024 and $ 30 million in 2025 (there are no orders for delivery in 2025 yet).
A detailed analysis of the global arms market for the period 2015-2022 and the forecast for 2023-2026 will be given in the upcoming publication of the "Yearbook of CAMTO-2023".
