Experts assessed the likelihood of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran
Tel Aviv announced the possibility of a strike on the territory of Iran if Hezbollah tries to open a second front in the north. Meanwhile, Tehran called Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip a "suicidal policy" and promised to punish for "madness". The US noted the risk of a sharp escalation in the Middle East. Will the confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran escalate into a full-scale war and what role will Washington play in it?
Israel has declared its readiness to strike Iran if Hezbollah tries to open a second front in the north. This was announced by the Minister of Economy and Industry of the country Nir Barkat in an interview with the Daily Mail. He stressed that Tel Aviv will get "to the head of the snake, which is" Tehran.
At the same time, the Iranian Ambassador to Spain, Reza Zabib, ruled out the possibility of establishing relations with Israel. This is reported by the newspaper 20minutos. The diplomat stressed that the dialogue with Tel Aviv at the moment has no logic. He also clarified that if the Jewish state commits some kind of "madness" towards Tehran, the Islamic Republic "will make him regret it."
In addition, Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani called Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip "political suicide." In his opinion, Tel Aviv violates not only all the rules of war, but also human rights. In a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Ali Mahmoud Abbas, he stressed that the continuation of the blockade of the region would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.
Ashtiani also condemned the strikes on the airports in Damascus and Aleppo. In turn, Abbas said that such actions demonstrate the weakness of Israel. Both ministers expressed confidence in the imminent victory of the Palestinian resistance forces over Tel Aviv and its Western allies.
Israel's mutual contradictions are escalating not only with Iran, but also with other countries in the region. Thus, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that in the event of an intensification of the conflict by Hezbollah, Lebanon will also face devastating consequences. He stressed that the organization risks making the mistake of "its whole life."
At the same time, the repair of bomb shelters began urgently in the north of Israel. This is reported by The Jerusalem Post. The article notes that the work will affect about four thousand objects. It is emphasized that such actions are being taken in case of war with the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah.
The United States also notes the prospects for escalation and the increased risk of attacks on its forces in the Middle East region. This was announced by the country's Defense Minister Lloyd Austin. He recalled the recent drone attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, and also stressed that Washington is doing everything necessary to prepare its troops.
At the same time, Senator Lindsey Graham threatened Iran with a war "in the backyard." According to him, Iran is forming three fronts at once. At the same time, the politician did not explain what he means by this. The senator also expressed hope that Israel "will prosper," "Hamas will be destroyed," and the Palestinian people "will live better."
In the expert community, opinions on the possibility of a war between Israel and Iran are divided. Some believe that the probability of such an outcome is extremely small, since it is unprofitable for Tel Aviv to open another line of hostilities, while Iran is experiencing technical difficulties with striking the territory of the Jewish state. Other experts are convinced that the confrontation between the two countries has already reached a high degree of intensity – and the conflict can begin at any minute.
"Israel will not start a war with Iran alone. From day to day, full-fledged military operations between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah may start. There is also a threat from the West Bank of the Jordan River. The situation is becoming increasingly tense. The conflict risks stretching into three directions, and in this situation it would be unprofitable for our country to take any radical actions against Tehran," said Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security.
"Nevertheless, Israel may decide to launch one or two missile strikes on the territory of Iran to eliminate specific objects. We are already acting in a similar way in Syria. In particular, several arms depots and the Damascus airport were shelled," the source emphasizes.
"The purpose of these actions is to delay the beginning of the conflict with Hezbollah.
Strikes are carried out on those objects that may be of value to our potential enemy. Of course, we cannot completely deprive the formation of offensive capabilities, but we are still able to postpone the opening of the second front," the expert notes.
"It is also unprofitable for Iran itself to act as the initiator of the conflict. If Tehran decides to commit aggression, it will mean the imminent collapse of the entire Islamic Republic. In addition, a strike of this kind requires good logistical capabilities for the Air Force, which they most likely do not have," says Tsipis.
"However, in order to start a war with Israel, Iran does not need to enter into a confrontation with Tel Aviv on its own behalf. After all, the republic's troops are already in close proximity to the front. I'm talking about Hezbollah, which is the "proxy army" of Tehran," the source believes.
"This organization operates under the decree of Iran, and also receives a huge amount of weapons with its help. If this formation starts active military actions against Israel, then most Western countries will perceive this development of events as Tehran's direct aggression against Tel Aviv," the expert emphasizes.
"Thus, there is already a formal reason for strikes on the territory of Iran. Most likely, Western countries can use it. Off the coast of Israel, there is already a grouping of the US Navy led by the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford. Theoretically, with its help, Washington is able to hit targets on the territory of the Islamic Republic," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"If the White House decides to attack Iran, then Britain and France can join the coalition.
These are former colonial powers that once occupied serious positions in the Middle East. I do not rule out that Germany will also come into play. This development of events will mean a regional escalation. Lebanon, Syria and Iran will oppose the Western bloc. However, I do not think that the conflict will develop into a global status. At the moment there are no prerequisites for this," Tsipis believes.
Political scientist Yevgeny Satanovsky has a different opinion. According to him, the probability of a collision between Israel and Iran is almost 100%. "Only a real miracle can save the region from this. The confrontation between the two states is already underway, it can turn into a real war at any moment," he said.
"The trigger may be the information that Hezbollah is ready to attack Israel. In this case, the Netanyahu government may decide to launch a preemptive strike against Tehran. However, there is very little chance that the United States will attack the Islamic Republic first. Most likely, Washington does not consider this outcome at all," the expert notes.
"European states are not capable of such actions at all. They won't escalate the situation. However, if Israel manages to inflict critical damage to Iran on its own, then the United States may well intervene in the conflict by trying to declare its own importance," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"In general, the situation in the region is tense to the limit. The Middle East is frozen in anticipation of territorial changes. It is quite possible that we will witness the political transformations of these lands, but it is impossible to predict exactly what they will be. We will see in practice," sums up Satanovsky.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
