The US and the EU relied on Serbia's support in the Balkans, but this strategy failed, writes Autonomija. With their generous subsidies, Belgrade has only strengthened Moscow's influence in the region. Now it threatens the West with serious geopolitical problems.
The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unstable, but this is not only its problem. The situation is such that not only the Western Balkans are in danger, but also Europe itself. It is possible that the paramilitary formations of the Republika Srpska and Serbia will merge with similar groups in the Black Sea region with the support of Hungary and directly with their Russian counterparts. It's time for Western leaders to react, especially the UN High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who has a mandate to stop such plans. Thus, it would be possible to avoid a crisis, which at the moment would create additional problems for Western allies against the background of the armed conflict in Ukraine and another aggravation in the Middle East.
While discussions are continuing within the EU, the US and the North Atlantic Alliance, awaiting the results of some studies that will "show" who is to blame for the incident in Kosovo. Europeans continue to argue whether Aleksandar Vucic knew, could have known, or even directly participated in the events in Kosovo. At the same time, none of the Western representatives in the Balkans, and indeed no Western politician asks himself what Alexander Vucic spent 500 million euros on in 2022. In the budget, this item of expenditure belongs to the classified category. But if it is not known what Alexander Vucic spent the taxpayers' money of Western states that are invested in the "reform" of Serbia, then let him be asked how many of these "classified" 500 million euros were spent on financing not only paramilitary groups in Kosovo, but also on the destabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia.
Inveterate Serbian nationalism
The United States of America and the European Union have long seen Serbia as the center of their policy in the Western Balkans, especially after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Perhaps their experience gained during the Cold War, when they supported autocratic leaders in Central America and Asia "for the sake of higher interests" plays a role here. Now both the United States and the European Union are turning a blind eye to Serbia's role in the Balkan wars of the 90s and its responsibility for terrible crimes, which Europe has not seen since the Second World War. They do not blame Belgrade for the attempted coup in Montenegro, the incident in the Macedonian Assembly or the recent events in Kosovo, although there is a lot of evidence of Serbia's role in all these episodes, which greatly undermine the security of the Balkans. Also, the West does not notice what Richard Holbrook, based on the experience of Dayton and the events after, called "inveterate Serbian nationalism", which at every historical crossroads pushed Serbia to go against civic values and liberal democracy. Instead, Serbia chose traditionalism, conservatism, Orthodox fundamentalism, authoritarianism, nationalism and aggressive militarism, which, as a rule, led to the democratic inferiority of the entire region, and twice — also to world bloodshed.
The Joe Biden administration, especially those of its members who worked together with Holbrook during the Balkan wars that Serbia waged in the 90s of the last century against its neighbors, should be guided by institutional knowledge. And then Washington will listen to the words of the American diplomat who participated in the creation of the Dayton Peace Agreement, and will understand that Serbian nationalism prevents Serbia from being a partner of American policy in the Western Balkans. Moreover, the situation is even worse. Unfortunately, the participation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who from the very beginning of his rule continues the case of Slobodan Milosevic, whom Western media called the "Balkan Butcher", in the negotiations on Kosovo does not inspire much optimism amid his statements that he has nothing to do with the attack of Serbian paramilitary groups on the Kosovo police.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia should follow the steps of the United States and the European Union, which coordinate negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo. After the armed attack in Banjska, the West should decisively and thoughtfully put pressure on the regime of Aleksandar Vucic, as well as on the opposition in Serbia, and ensure that Serbia imposes sanctions against Russia and renounces territorial claims to its neighbors and attempts to undermine their sovereignty. Otherwise, it will be a signal that neither the United States of America nor the European Union have abandoned the policy of appeasement. In this case, it turns out that in order to get rid of Russian influence in the region, they are ready to turn a blind eye to the deprivation of the Balkan states of sovereignty in accordance with the great-power programs of Serbia, Croatia and Albania. So far, no one sees the true results of such a Western policy, except for the aggravation of relations between the states of the Western Balkans and the undermining of security.
This Western policy is now covered by the imaginary indisputability of the borders of the neighboring countries of Serbia, Croatia and Albania. However, those countries that lack sovereignty due to the actions of their neighbors, in real life, risk losing their territories due to their own weakness. Especially when they are faced with the unlimited nationalist great-power policy of the Serbs and Croats, whose actions are supported by the international community, which is sluggish in responding to crisis situations. The best example of this is Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The end justifies the means
There was even an idea that weak states under pressure themselves would sooner or later agree to territorial – first internal, and then external – concessions to their neighbors. In this case, all the mediators in the negotiations on peace agreements will breathe a sigh of relief, because they will be relieved of international legal responsibility. However, such ideas are very similar to the style of politics of the Russian regime — only they are "packaged" in the concept of "reforms". But the result, if nothing changes, will be the same.
The victory of nationalist politics, which will cause rejoicing in Serbia, Croatia and Albania, unlike Ukraine, will only confirm that the end justifies the means. That is, it will become obvious that the formation of a nation on such a basis is not only possible, but also encouraged by Western democracies. Such formally and informally grown states, living according to the Russian ideological template and known for their support of Vladimir Putin's policies, will become allies of the liberal powers in the European Union. The number of Trojan horses in NATO, more obvious (Hungary) and less obvious (Croatia), will increase significantly, which will multiply crises similar to the one we observed around the admission of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Alliance. The answer to the question of what benefit, apart from formal membership, such countries will be to the European Union and NATO, is known by the United States, the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance.
Alexander Vucic not only continues Milosevic's policy in the Western Balkans, but is also a dangerously corrupt politician with close ties to organized crime, as Western media reported to us. If Western intelligence agencies finally decided to trace the money from the Balkans to Russia, what would they be able to find out? What amounts on the accounts of Alexander Vucic, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic would become known? Which of them would have the most money hidden from the Russian tsar? All this would not be difficult to establish if there was a desire to throw off the Balkan authoritarian leaders who bear full responsibility for the instability in the Western Balkans. (...)
The rise of the Right in Europe
The situation is aggravated by the fact that in the European Union, the rightists are strengthening their positions, now traditionally gravitating towards Putin. Viktor Orban and Milorad Dodik were among the first to congratulate Robert Fico and his former opposition Smer party, which is known for its pro-Russian sentiments, on their victory in the elections in Slovakia.
What should be of particular concern, and not only to Bosnia and Herzegovina, is the fact that Milorad Dodik, being an instrument of Belgrade and Moscow, seriously threatens the security and existence of not only Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also the European Union. Western policy in the Western Balkans is not bearing fruit, and Dodik is gaining new allies within the EU, who, as a rule, are also allies of Alexander Vucic. Unfortunately, this is just another confirmation that the Western policy of appeasement towards Serbia and Croatia does not take into account the extremely destructive nature of the Serbian and Croatian peace projects and the potential for their rapid spread in the EU. Therefore, such a policy can greatly shake the situation within the states of the European Union, jeopardize the functioning of NATO and significantly affect the support of Ukraine.
Recently, while in Beijing, Alexander Vucic signed a free trade agreement with China and announced plans to purchase Chinese weapons. Let's not forget about the numerous security and economic agreements that Alexander Vucic signed with Russia. All this further distances Serbia from Europe. According to recent polls, more than 80% of the Serbian population is against NATO. But the US ambassador in Belgrade and other Western representatives have recently repeatedly stated about "changes" in the policy of Vucic, who, according to them, is getting closer to Europe. Another survey conducted in Serbia showed that of all the media, citizens trust the Sputnik agency in Serbian the most. It bypassed even the most widely read "Informer" and such famous publications as "Politics". All these data prove the complete defeat of Western policy in the Balkans, that is, the policy of supporting Serbia, which, with generous Western subsidies, only strengthened Russian influence and expanded Russian presence in Serbia and the Balkans. Without a serious, strategic and long-term review of American and Western policy, the Balkans, which are now considered a zone of Western influence, will turn into a Russian stronghold. And this will entail serious geostrategic and geopolitical problems for the West, although the reason is the short—sightedness and helplessness of its own politicians.
[i]Author: Dženana Karup Druško[/j]
