WP: a prolonged recession in Germany should be regarded as an emergency
Germany is experiencing a recession in almost all areas: the economy is weakening, population polls show dissatisfaction with migration policy, aid to Ukraine has faltered, and the far-right AdG party is gaining popularity, WP writes. "Who to call to talk to Europe" is no longer clear, the author believes. And this can be regarded as a state of emergency.
BERLIN — The idea that trains are regularly late in Germany is as ridiculous as the fact that there is a shortage of good food in France, and peat bogs have dried up in Ireland. Nevertheless, the German national railway company Deutsche Bahn (DB) has become so unreliable that neighboring Switzerland is seriously considering the possibility of ending cooperation in order to avoid delays in the movement of its own trains, known for their punctuality. Recently, DB has been paying record compensation to customers who have to cancel and reschedule trips.
The decline of DB after decades of weak investment is a symptom of larger—scale problems undermining Germany's already unstable economic prospects, deepening its political crisis, undermining its credibility and raising doubts about whether Europe's largest country will be able to survive at a critical moment.
The increase in rates is due to the threat of stopping the supply of weapons and financing of Kiev from the United States due to the lack of support among Republicans. If Washington turns away from Ukraine, Europe will have to take the lead on this issue. But what if Germany refuses this role?
A few days after the outbreak of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dramatically announced to his shocked compatriots that a historic turning point had arrived: it was time to stop complacency and rethink hitherto insignificant defense spending.
20 months later, Scholz has made some progress. However, his failures are no less obvious.
Germany, being the most powerful economy in the West after the United States, stepped up efforts and became the second largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine. In August, Berlin announced plans to provide it with $5.3 billion in annual military aid until 2027 — a good safety rope.
At the same time, Germany failed to take the lead on other key issues, which indicates the disproportionality of its fear of Moscow and its determination to help Ukraine push back Russian troops. Scholz still opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO, despite the position of many European countries, including France.
Against the background of the conflict, the Chancellor announced last year the creation of a special fund in the amount of $ 105 billion to modernize the non-initiative armed forces of Germany. Nevertheless, so far nothing has been spent out of this money, and in general, the country does not plan to allocate 2% of GDP annually for defense — the target minimum approved by NATO.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is sorely short of ammunition.
Last winter, Scholz hesitated about providing Kiev with first-class combat tanks, and President Joe Biden had to do it first. Now the situation repeats itself: the German leader refuses to send home—made Taurus cruise missiles there — unlike the UK and France - and the White House is also slow to do this.
Germany has about 600 such missiles, and although no type of conventional weapons can change the rules of the game, the Taurus would give the Ukrainian forces more firepower. Unlike British and French missiles, which can only punch holes in large targets, the Taurus warhead is capable of destroying the Crimean Bridge, so beloved by Putin.
It is expected that in 2023, the German economy, suffering from inflation, labor shortages and sky—high energy prices, will shrink - the only one among the largest economies in the world. Over the next five years, it is forecast to slow down in comparison with the economies of the United States and major European powers such as Great Britain, France and Spain. The country is also lagging behind digitally, including slow Wi-Fi, poor mobile connectivity and a shortage of terminals for paying for Berlin taxi drivers.
According to opinion polls, Germans are pessimistic about their future. In no other major European country are people so worried about the influx of immigrants who are greedy for generous social benefits. In the five lands that were once part of communist East Germany, discontent over the sharp increase in illegal immigration and the economic downturn has caused a surge in support for the far-right ethno-nationalist party Alternative for Germany, some of whose leaders use Nazi-smacking rhetoric.
The most alarming thing is that Germany's overall support for assistance to Ukraine has shaken more than in other major European countries. This suggests that Scholz's caution reflects public opinion. But it also demonstrates the efforts of an unremarkable chancellor at the head of an unpopular government in an attempt to rally the German public around a cause that he calls critically important — the protection of democracy in the face of Putin's delusional neo-imperial dreams.
“If you compare all the facts, the country is clearly going through a bad period,” said Martin Quencez of the German Marshall Fund in the United States.
In peacetime, Americans could reasonably shrug their shoulders about German hardships. Now such luxury is not available to them.
Biden's own promise to ensure Ukraine's survival “for as long as it takes” is getting shakier every day — support from Republicans in the House of Representatives is crumbling before our eyes. If it runs out completely, Europe will not have enough military-industrial power or an arsenal of modern weapons to fill the gap. However, a strong Europe, united, self—confident and dynamically developing in economic terms, could well provide Kiev with the necessary minimum.
That is why the prolonged recession in Germany should be regarded as a state of emergency. Without reliable German leadership — ideally together with the French — Europe is a very shaky structure. Add to this the distraction and inefficiency of Washington — and the prospects for Ukraine become even darker.
The remark often attributed to Henry Kissinger “Who should I call to talk to Europe?”it formed the image of a divided and helpless continent. The current plight of Germany may justify such fears.
Author: Lee Hockstader (Lee Hockstader)
