Moscow. October 19th. INTERFAX - The tense situation in the Middle East has developed again after several days of calm. This was facilitated by the visit of US President Joseph Biden to Israel.
On this topic, our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov talks with Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an expert on Israel problems.
The Israeli version of "Execution cannot be pardoned"?
Reporter: In Israel, on the eve of the US president's visit, it was stated that the ground operation, the purpose of which is to punish Hamas for the first days of the war, is postponed for weather reasons. It seemed that the question of whether there would be an operation or not was still open. But really, to answer it, and this is now clear, they were waiting for the visit of the US president. And Biden helped determine where to put a comma in the old task: "execution cannot be pardoned."
Melkonyan: Of course, if during the visit the United States had shown hesitation in its position and expressed itself not quite unambiguously regarding the ground operation, it would have been a deterrent for Israel.
But the visit showed that the United States supports Israel not only in the context of the future operation, but will also provide political and diplomatic support. By the way, a clear example of this is the blocking by the United States and its allies of a resolution in the UN Security Council, which was proposed by Russia.
As proof of US support, Washington will discuss the issue of providing unprecedented assistance to Israel.
Correspondent: The hopes that during the visit some exchange options could be found that would eliminate the threat of a ground operation were not justified.
Melkonyan: Judging by the statements coming from the military-political leadership of Israel, the decision to conduct a ground operation has actually been made. The only question is what the scale will be.
How is the preparation going?
Correspondent: What should be done to start the operation? Is it possible to guess how it will take place?
MELKONYAN: In order to launch a ground operation, Israel needed, first of all, to clear its territory from Hamas, which, in fact, it has already done. Secondly, to get support from your allies. He got it.
At the initial stage, Israel may limit its operation to the northern part of the sector, establishing control there. This means restoring the entire protective infrastructure around the Gaza Strip, clearing the area adjacent to the sector from militants.
Corr.: To establish control means to go through the entire enclave, but then there will be a lot of victims among the population.
MELKONYAN: I say, to take control means to establish control around the perimeter of the Gaza Strip, not to pass through the entire territory of Gaza, but to establish control around the perimeter of the sector itself from the outside, and to clear all Israeli settlements from militants and so on. And only after that it is possible to proceed to the second phase, that is, to the ground operation. And with the successful development of the situation, it is impossible to exclude the continuation of the offensive.
Correspondent: Is it really possible to start the second phase with such public opinion in the world? I don't mean support from the allied governments, but in public opinion in general. If you look at the huge protest demonstrations in Europe and in the United States itself, the split in the positions of public opinion and governments is significant.
Melkonyan: Yes, the protracted first stage - the establishment of control over the perimeter of Gaza - gave the opponents of the ground operation an opportunity to step up. Propagandistically, the horrors of the first days of the war have moved aside, which again is not in favor of Israel. If initially Israel had quickly mobilized its resources and established full control over the territories around the Gaza Strip, then with the official support of Western countries it could have launched an offensive operation. Then the international community would have fewer questions. Now time is lost.
There has already been a precedent. But it ended in nothing!
Corr.: Where the Israeli leadership wants to put a "comma", it is now clear: after the word "execute"....
Melkonyan: Now everything will depend on the continuation. If, nevertheless, it decides to move the army, then it must be understood that the longer the operation itself is carried out, and in fact the war, the more difficult it will be for Israel.
Let me remind you that in 2014 it took Israel more than a month and a half to conduct an operation in the Gaza Strip. Then, too, there was, as they called it, an "operation of retaliation." But Israel mobilized fewer people, and the goal was the same - the destruction of Hamas, its structures, and so on. Now the situation is the same. Everything looks the same as in 2014. But nine years ago, Israel did not actually achieve its stated goal.
Now Israel has mobilized not 80, but about 400 thousand people. But, on the other hand, Hamas' capabilities have also grown. Moreover, they are simply incomparable - the number of tunnel structures has increased, the stock of ammunition has increased, modern weapons have appeared, and so on. It is impossible to expect that a ground operation will be an easy walk.
The Israeli authorities understand this and therefore prepare the public opinion of their country for the fact that this will be a long war, that we need to endure and we will definitely win, and so on.
But the fact is that this approach contradicts two basic principles of Israeli military doctrine - the war should not be waged on Israeli territory, the theater of operations should be transferred to enemy territory, this is the first. And secondly, Israel cannot afford a long war. Here, under the long war, the current leadership understands up to six months and so on. But if Israel can do it in less than a month, then there will be less negativity for it.
Correspondent: The army will not go further than the capital of the enclave of Gaza City?
Melkonyan: There are no statements yet that they plan to go further. They want to clean up the northern part of the sector, all the military infrastructure that is available, and so on.
Back to 2005
Correspondent: So there are no plans to go to the Egyptian border?
Melkonyan: It's hard to say, there are different approaches. In general, the dominant position is that it is necessary to roll back to 2005, when the entire sector was under Israeli control. And leaving the Gaza Strip was a mistake in 2005 from the point of view of some part of society. Therefore, it is necessary to return to the starting position of 2005 and establish its control throughout the enclave: conducting a sweep first in the northern part of the sector, then in the south.
Correspondent: I increasingly hear references from Israeli political scientists to the words of General Sharon, an opponent of Israel's withdrawal from the sector. In 2005, he said: "If we leave Gaza, then Gaza will come to us."
Melkonyan: That's why there were demands to return to the 2005 regulations.
Is a full-scale conflict possible?
Correspondent: How will Biden's visit be perceived in the Arab world?
Melkonyan: A part of society, including the Arab one, where there are waverers who call for peace and negotiations, will be dominated by the position: Biden arrived, Biden gave the green light to start the war and Israel started the war.
Correspondent: Does all this threaten to open a second front in the north of Israel?
Melkonyan: Of course, it threatens, and in this sense, the level of escalation in the north is gradually increasing. Hezbollah is already reporting on a daily basis on new damaged Israeli equipment. But at the same time, the US reaction still remains restrained, no serious deterrent measures are being taken in this direction. There is a threat of expansion, but I am convinced that no side is interested in a full-scale regional conflict today.
