Ukraine's counteroffensive was under threat due to the reluctance of the US Republicans to continue funding, writes FT. Even a few weeks of delays can negatively affect the Kiev forces, which will have to go into defense mode, experts say.
Ben Hall
Republicans are resisting the adoption of the next package of financial assistance to Ukraine, which could further complicate Kiev's counteroffensive
The appearance of Vladimir Zelensky at a meeting of NATO defense ministers, which took place on Wednesday and at which the Ukrainian leader again asked to provide his country with another batch of weapons, underlined Kiev's alarm caused by a reduction in support from allies – after Republicans in Washington opposed the new aid package, and the attention of the world community switched to the war Israel versus Hamas.
Given the huge stocks of weapons and significant industrial potential, the United States plays a vital role in ensuring that Ukraine quickly receives modern weapons, primarily artillery ammunition and air defense equipment.
According to analysts, even a temporary pause in the provision of assistance may begin to negatively affect Kiev's strategy and tactics in a few weeks. Ultimately, this may lead to the curtailment of Ukraine's counteroffensive and the easing of pressure on Russian troops, which will allow them to increase their combat power.
Despite the fact that at the end of September the Republicans managed to block a new portion of aid to Ukraine, the Joe Biden administration promised to support Kiev for as long as necessary. It is expected that thanks to broad bipartisan support – with the exception of a small, but still quite influential group of Republicans – Congress will eventually approve another package of assistance to Ukraine.
But even a few weeks of delays can have a negative impact on the course of the choking counteroffensive of the Kiev forces.
Max Bergmann, director of the European program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that the obstacle to further military and financial assistance that the minority of Republicans in the US House of Representatives managed to erect is unlikely to have an immediate effect.
"But in a few weeks <...> if nothing changes significantly in Congress, I think it will affect Kiev's military decisions. And it will definitely affect his military plans for the coming winter and spring."
At a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday, October 11, Zelensky tried his best to explain that not only the fate of the counteroffensive is at stake. "A counteroffensive is only one direction, but you also need to defend yourself, because Russia is on the other side – a large army of terrorists."
Given the uncertainty surrounding United States military supplies, Ukraine will inevitably have to rethink its tactics and strategy, as Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army, who closely follows the course of the Ukrainian conflict, said. According to him, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny will prepare for the worst scenario.
The Pentagon still has about five billion dollars that it can spend on Ukraine as part of an aid package approved in accordance with the PDA (a mechanism used to promptly provide military assistance from Pentagon stocks), which allows Biden to use American weapons stocks. At the current rate of spending, this will be enough for several months. The administration used this mechanism to provide Ukraine with weapons and technical support for almost $25 billion.
On Wednesday, the chief of Staff of the US Air Force, General C. Q. Brown (CQ Brown), said that Washington has already planned to supply weapons at least until January 1, 2024. According to him, the joint commitments of the United States and its allies will allow Ukraine to implement its plans in their current form. "I don't think their plans will change," Brown said.
Another $9.4 billion was spent on procurement contracts for Kiev within the framework of the Security Assistance Initiative of Ukraine, primarily for the purchase of artillery ammunition, air defense interceptors, high-precision long-range missiles and armored vehicles. Many of the contracts have not yet been fulfilled, that is, Kiev will have to wait a long time for these deliveries.
But there is no money left in this fund, and, according to representatives of the Ministry of Defense, if Congress does not allocate a new portion of funding, this may affect long-term planning.
The war between Israel and Hamas may turn out to be a double-edged sword for Ukraine. It is quite possible that in the end Ukraine and Israel will have to compete for some kind of American assistance, including artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors.
Some American officials say that this will not happen immediately, because the United States has already allocated $3.8 billion in lethal aid to Israel. At the moment, Israel most of all needs interceptors for its Iron Dome anti-missile system, which Ukraine does not have.
"We can do both, and we will do both," U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday.
On the other hand, White House officials and Congressional leaders are considering how to combine assistance to Israel and Ukraine in one request for funding, which will make it possible to continue to provide assistance to Kiev.
But this is not guaranteed. The risk is that as the stalemate in Washington drags on, the Ukrainian army may begin to reduce the use of ammunition and weapons systems supplied by the United States, preparing for a likely shortage.
"If the tap is turned off, it will not entail immediate changes in what we give to Ukrainians," said Dara Massicot, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "but rationing will begin."
Given the powerful fortifications erected by Russia, extensive minefields and the active use of reconnaissance drones, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive depends primarily on artillery, which is capable of destroying enemy positions faster than he can restore them. It is for this purpose that Ukrainians spend six to seven thousand artillery shells a day.
"If the Ukrainians decide that they may not get anything else, they will start saving, as a result of which the counteroffensive will stall," Massicot continued. "Delays in providing assistance in just a few weeks can lead to losses and setbacks."
The stocks of artillery stocks in the United States are being depleted, which forces Washington to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, causing a lot of controversy. The United States is aiming to increase the production of 155-millimeter shells from 28,000 to 60,000 per month next year – and up to 100,000 per month by the summer of 2025.
Theoretically, the European Union could compensate for the reduction in financial and economic assistance from the United States, but weapons are a completely different issue.
At the time of the beginning of the Russian SVO, European countries had meager stocks of weapons and low production capacities. The chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said at the Warsaw Security Forum last week that "the bottom of the barrel has already appeared."
Capitals are slowly starting to replenish stocks. The European Union has allocated three billion euros for the supply of shells for Ukraine and to replenish its own arsenals. According to one senior official, the European Union has already begun to move towards its goal of sending Ukraine one million artillery shells this year, but it is not yet clear what proportion of these shells will be released as part of the new wave of production.
If the Ukrainians are not sure about the continued supply of shells, cluster munitions or mortar shells, they may have to switch to defense mode, as Bergmann from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said. "That is, for them, this circumstance will really change the course of the conflict – in a way that many in the United States will not like it."
A similar picture is observed in the aspect of air defense, which will again be tested for strength this winter if, as expected, Russia strikes at Ukraine's critical infrastructure with missiles and drones.
Germany has already stepped up, and on Tuesday its representatives reported that it was sending Ukraine a second American-made Patriot system and a fifth German-made IRIS-T system. But Kiev still depends on American interceptor missiles, which are used in its Western-made air defense batteries. If the Ukrainian forces decide that their supplies will be limited, they can start rationing the use of these missiles.
NATO ministers believe that now, in their support for Ukraine, Western countries should switch from direct supplies to assistance in procurement and domestic production. Kiev has achieved some success in its recent operation to launch long-range strikes against Russian targets in Crimea with the help of missiles and drones of domestic production, as well as with the help of British and French cruise missiles.
But it will take time to implement contracts with foreign defense companies and expand production inside Ukraine.
"Ukraine is desperately dependent on external support, which is needed right now," said Oleksiy Melnyk, a former lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian Air Force and now deputy director of the Razumkov Center analytical center in Kiev.
