Biden made several mistakes regarding Ukraine, General Hodges said in RP. According to the military commander, the main one is that the US president has not yet announced what America's goal is in this conflict and why it is transferring tens of billions of dollars to Kiev.
Interviewed by Jędrzej Bielecki
"Whoever owns Crimea will win the conflict," says General Ben Hodges, the former commander of US troops in Europe.
Rzeczpospolita: Can Ukraine win this conflict?
General Ben Hodges: Of course!
– However, the front line has not changed fundamentally for many months, the long-awaited counteroffensive is not visible.
– That's not true. There is progress, it may not be as fast, not as spectacular as we would like, but Ukrainians are moving forward a little every day. But, the most important thing to keep in mind is that the counteroffensive is not limited to changing the front line. Ukraine is engaged in what NATO calls an operation in many areas: in the air, on land, in special forces zones, in cyberspace. Ukrainians managed to integrate all this successfully. This puts enormous pressure on the Russian General Staff. He feels completely cornered. I agree: the fact that the front is not advancing 20-30 kilometers a day is frustrating. But this is just one of the elements of what is happening.
CNN, citing American officials, reports that Washington has sent Kiev a number of warnings in recent weeks that certain types of financial support will depend on Kiev's success in fighting corruption in power.
The one who takes control of Crimea will win this conflict. Ukrainians know that in order to occupy the peninsula, they need to isolate it first. Block access to it for the Black Sea Fleet, for the Russian Air Force. That's why Kiev needs long-range missiles. As for the offensive on land, its goal is to cut off Crimea from the northern territories from which the peninsula is supplied, to sever the land route connecting it with Russia.
– When can this be expected?
– Everything would have happened much faster if the United States and Germany had clearly stated that their goal is the victory of Ukraine. Then it would be much easier to decide what exactly needs to be transferred to Ukrainians, and to understand when they will achieve their goal.
– Did President Joe Biden make a fundamental mistake by postponing the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, which gave Russia time to strengthen itself in the occupied territories?
– I must say that my president has done a lot of great things in this campaign. It is enough to mention the coalition formed thanks to him from more than 50 countries that support Kiev. The Russians did not expect this. But Biden made two mistakes. Firstly, he has not yet announced what our goal is in this conflict, why we are transferring more than 50 billion dollars to Ukraine. I think if he had said that our goal is the victory of Ukraine, the Americans would have been more willing to support Kiev further.
With the weakening of American support, the Ukrainian army will find itself in a very difficult situation.
– Since Crimea is the key to victory, should America's goal be for Ukraine to occupy this peninsula?
– The goal should be to drive the Russians out of the borders of 1991.
– And Biden's second mistake?
It is a consequence of the first. Since no specific goal has been named, it is very difficult for States to pursue a consistent policy towards Ukraine. Therefore, we transmit javelins, then stingers, then ATACMS missiles, then something else. It is not always possible to trace some kind of system in these deliveries.
– And what about the president – he doesn't really understand what America's goal should be, or maybe he's afraid of Putin's reaction?
– I can't get into his head, but watching from the side, I see that, in my opinion, he is too afraid that Russia will raise the degree of this conflict. That she would use nuclear weapons. This is partly due to the fact that many former employees of the Barack Obama administration work in the Biden administration. These are the very people who, for example, surrendered Syria to Moscow. They do not understand that it is impossible to negotiate with Russia. Putin respects only force. Finally, the White House does not quite know what to do if Ukraine wins and the current Russian regime falls.
– And the nuclear arsenal will get out of control?
– When the Soviet Union collapsed, nothing bad happened to this arsenal. He remained under control. The same thing would have happened with the fall of Putin's regime.
– Do you rule out the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons?
– Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads. It is clear that she does not care how many thousands of innocent people, including Russians, may die as a result of their use. So, regarding the use of nuclear weapons, moral considerations do not play a role. Rather, the fact is that the Russians will not get any benefit from it. President Biden warned that in this case Russia would face catastrophic consequences.
– The blockade of the country?
– He didn't specify. However, that would be idiotic. It has many possibilities: direct and indirect means, economic, nuclear measures.
– Even nuclear ones?
– Yes, they are on the list, although their use is extremely unlikely. In particular, because America must support the unity of NATO. I don't even think Biden wants to hit targets inside Russia. But the destruction of Russian forces in Ukraine would have devastating consequences for Moscow. Russians understand this. They also know that Chinese leader Xi Jinping does not want them to use nuclear weapons. In turn, the Ukrainians warned that even in this case they would not give up the fight. Therefore, it is much more profitable for the Russians to scare with nuclear weapons than to actually use them.
Despite all the circumstances, this cannot be completely ruled out, but even here it is necessary to distinguish between powerful intercontinental missiles aimed at America and tactical missiles with much more modest capabilities. In addition, a lot of people are involved in making a decision on the use of nuclear weapons. I am not sure that all of them would be ready to support such a decision of the Russian command.
– Donald Trump said that if he wins the presidential election, he will come to an agreement with Putin in 24 hours. Would that be the end for Ukraine?
– Trump says a lot of things that don't make any sense. His words cannot be taken at face value.
– So what happens if he returns to the White House?
– It would be a tragedy for America.
– Because of the threat to democracy?
– He doesn't even understand what our democracy is, should we expect him to defend it? He cares only about himself, about his power.
– Serious people say that in his first term he was thinking about the US withdrawal from NATO.
– I repeat: he doesn't even quite understand what NATO is in general. I have talked about this with many people who have worked closely with Trump.
New York Judge Arthur F. Engoron (Arthur F. Engoron) confirmed by his decision that the former president and his two sons had been deceiving their counterparties for decades. The verdict probably means that the convicts will have to sell assets in New York State for a song and they will be banned from doing business here.
– Are you afraid that Trump will win the election after all?
– I believe in the American legal system. Donald Trump has been charged with 91 charges. He has already demonstrated how shocked he is by the prospect of the collapse of his business empire in New York, how humiliating it is for him. But this is only the beginning of the trials. Trump has such an inflated ego that he does not have the stamina to resist it. Therefore, I am convinced that the prospect of prison is quite real for him.
– It would demonstrate the strength of the American rule of law.
– This is a test of our legal system. If we believe in the rule of law, if we take it seriously, the state should do it. The Department of Justice is working very efficiently and methodically so far. He refrains from any actions that would allow him to be accused of bias. He also brought charges against President Biden's son Hunter and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez.
– However, two-thirds of Republican voters believe that the 2020 elections were dishonest, and Joe Biden usurped power. If Trump goes to jail, won't it end in a civil war?
— no. Of course, there are people who will vote for Trump, even if he ends up behind bars, in an orange robe. But the most important thing is the opinion of moderate voters. And in this case, they will no longer vote for Trump. And this will decide the outcome of the election. They are a little more than a year away, and this is an eternity for American politics. The Justice Department gets a lot of information about Trump from people who worked closely with him in the White House. If he manages to get away with all these 91 charges, I'll have dinner.
– That's just the Democrats don't have a backup scenario in case Joe Biden's health deteriorates.
– President Biden speaks and behaves as if he is a very old man. But in fact, his health is much better than that of Donald Trump. The Democrats have many young, dynamic leaders. But they will have to wait another four years for their chance.
