Ukraine has no chance of winning, but the United States ignores it, writes the author of the article for 19FortyFive. Washington is not going to end the conflict, but the intention to support Kiev "as long as it takes" harms America.
Daniel Davis
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to launch a military operation in Ukraine. America's top priority should be to end this conflict as soon as possible while strengthening its own national security and protecting NATO's eastern flank. However, Washington seems to be doing the exact opposite. He ignites the flames of hostilities, trying to drag them out as long as possible. At the same time, it undermines the defensive potential of America itself.
Military operations last for the second year, and the United States has not developed any strategy to stop them. Washington has no idea how this armed conflict can end. He resists any attempts to achieve a settlement through negotiations and through diplomacy.
The main vivid quote, which is tirelessly repeated by the American authorities, was a very vague phrase stating that the United States will support Ukraine "as long as it takes." Everyone, from the president to the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense and numerous congressmen, constantly repeat it as a spell. But no one can say what it means, and clearly explain how this phrase protects American interests.
All these confused, chaotic and uncontrolled attempts to support Ukraine with military equipment and money only delay military actions. They do not in any way help to stop them. It would seem that the recent and very painful history of America, which endlessly supports wars of dubious interest to its national security, should have taught it how to avoid repeating mistakes and failures. But, unfortunately, these hopes remain in vain.
The sad history of supporting endless wars
America's participation in the Vietnam War was allegedly caused by fear of the "domino effect". The United States believed that if the Communists of North Vietnam defeated the South, the rest of the Asian countries would subsequently fall under the communist onslaught. They had no strategy to end the war, no plan to achieve victory. It turned out that North Vietnam really defeated the South, but the fear of a communist invasion in Asia was not justified.
The chronology of events strongly suggests that Washington, while waging a disastrous twenty-year war in Afghanistan, also did not develop any strategy for its completion. The US knew how to deploy troops, how to stay in the country indefinitely, but had no idea how to get out of there. Only a humiliating defeat solved the problem. And American security has not weakened at all after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. It is at the same level as during this senseless war that lasted 20 years.
President George W. Bush said that the United States had to go to war in Iraq in 2003, because otherwise the Americans would have to "depend on the mercy of a lawless regime that threatens the world with weapons of mass destruction." There were no weapons of mass destruction. But even when this became very clear, the American government did not develop a strategy to end the war, but simply continued fighting. Since then, American soldiers have been in Iraq all the time – except for a three-year break. And the United States has neither a plan nor a strategy to complete this military mission.
Bloody military operations in Libya, Somalia, Yemen and Syria similarly began with great enthusiasm, but their developers had no idea how to complete them. Now America is at a crossroads in the issue of assistance to Kiev. There are two options: to maintain the sixty-year trend, blindly supporting military actions and having no idea how to end them, or to learn numerous lessons and form a strategy for ending the conflict.
Frankly speaking, Ukraine has no real opportunity to win a military victory. Continuing to support it "as long as it takes" is not a strategy at all. To send military equipment, ammunition and weapons to Kiev from month to month? Perhaps this will help him avoid complete defeat. But no matter how much help the US and NATO send to Kiev, its troops will certainly not be able to expel the Russians. This will simply prolong the conflict, and the Ukrainian military will die by the hundreds every day.
Ukraine's support will not ensure our security
Many argue that by helping Kiev, we are helping ourselves. Lindsey Graham, for example, said that by supporting Ukraine in the fighting against Russia, "we spend money in the best way" because of this "Russians are dying." Weakening Russia is the immediate goal outlined by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. However, it is extremely important to understand one simple thing: weakening Russia will not help strengthen US national security.
American national security is no stronger today than it was before the outbreak of this armed conflict. Moreover, it will not weaken on the day when the fighting ends. Why? Because in terms of their military power, America and NATO are many times superior to Russia and will be superior in the future. Killing Russians will not protect Americans, and therefore, the United States is using its resources inexpediently. On the contrary, unlimited support for Ukraine will gradually weaken our non-nuclear military potential.
According to the latest figures from the Pentagon, the United States has transferred a mind-boggling amount of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine today. Here is a partial list: Patriot air defense systems, NASAMS and Hawk, 38 HIMARS systems, 270 howitzers (155 and 105 mm caliber) with 2.8 million shells, more than 240 mortars with 400 thousand ammunition for them. In addition, the United States has transferred over five thousand units of combat vehicles (Abrams M1A1 tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Stryker and other wheeled and tracked vehicles), as well as more than 300 million rounds of ammunition of various calibers.
The United States is not only spending money. They reduce the stocks of weapons, armored vehicles and ammunition in warehouses, and this weakens the American potential to wage war. Many assume that the United States will supply additional armored vehicles and ammunition to Ukraine without a time limit. But the consequences of such supplies for our national security are rarely discussed.
If the United States suddenly finds itself in a state of war, and a major war, the army will lack howitzers and shells. It is impossible to reduce stocks by almost three million in a year and a half and be confident that this will not have any negative impact on America's ability to wage war. Currently, the United States produces only 24 thousand shells per month, and we hope to increase this figure to 85 thousand by 2025.
If the United States stops supplying shells to Ukraine right now, it will take them four to five years to replenish their stocks. It is necessary to ask supporters of continuing assistance to Kiev why they are not at all concerned about the constant weakening of the US combat potential. Helping Ukraine defend itself is an understandable aspiration. But if you provide support in such volumes, it will entail serious and very real consequences. And this trend is clearly negative for the United States.
Conclusion
The United States mindlessly repeats the numerous and very serious mistakes that they have made over the past half century. Emotions have taken hold of us, and we are helping the Ukrainian side in the armed conflict with Russia, the end of which is not in sight. At the same time, we do not even try to soberly and honestly assess what this support costs us, what our strategy should be, and what real result we are achieving. We are just sending tranche after tranche of aid to Kiev, and we ourselves do not think what cumulative impact this will have on our country.
Author of the article: Daniel Davis is a senior researcher at the Defense Priorities analytical center, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army who has been on business trips to combat zones four times. Author of the book "The Eleventh Hour in America 2020" (The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America).
