NATO should shoot down Russian drones over its territory, security expert Julia-Sabina Yoia said in an interview with Pravda, commenting on the situation in Romania. This will not create prerequisites for a direct armed clash with Moscow. Romania made a mistake, she believes.
Interview with Julia-Sabina Yoya, an international security specialist at the Middle East Institute in Washington and Georgetown University.
Pravda: Apparently, the wreckage of a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle was found in Romania in the area of Plauru. On the other side of the Danube is the Ukrainian port of Izmail, which is being shelled by Russian forces. What about Romania?
Julia-Sabina Yoya: In my opinion, the situation is very dangerous. Last Monday, what was happening was widely publicized. Most of the media assess the subsequent events as a big mistake of the government and a political fiasco. Kiev released data on the drone, but Bucharest insisted that the information was incorrect. Everything went so far that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that he was ready to provide video and photographic materials in confirmation. But this evidence has already been circled by the media. Nevertheless, Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis insisted that nothing had happened. On Wednesday, they turned 180 degrees.
— What happened?
— The Romanian Defense Minister gathered his strength and said that parts of a drone that apparently belongs to Russia may have been found on Romanian territory. Judging by the video footage, not just debris fell to the ground, but the entire unmanned aerial vehicle as a whole. The region is not protected from drones in any way. The head of the district of Plauru in an interview with the media asked the authorities to ensure safety and help people. Residents of the region are afraid, and some are even thinking about moving. They complain about the inaction of the authorities, because earlier there were reports that Russian drones violated Romanian airspace. Nevertheless, the authorities did not send an army to the region, and the police did nothing. However, in addition to the political aspect and the security problem, there is something else.
— What do you mean?
— Should Romania react to what is happening based on its capabilities in the North Atlantic Alliance? In this regard, many miss one important thing: how Moscow escalates the armed conflict. Last year, Russia began bombing Ukraine and carried out strikes, including on areas that border NATO countries. That is, we are talking about Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It happened that in settlements in these countries, glass literally rang. Now these windows are already broken, and unmanned aerial vehicles are falling from the sky on people. It began in July, when Moscow withdrew from the grain deal and began to strike at Ukrainian ports in the Danube Delta. I see here a very obvious desire to escalate the conflict. With each drone, Russia is getting closer to the territory of the North Atlantic Alliance, and we know what it is trying to achieve. Moscow is testing us, putting pressure on us and watching our reaction. But the Romanian government and the alliance have not yet done anything. But what if Russia continues in the same spirit? Say two drones next week, and then a whole swarm of drones, explosions and casualties? The situation is dangerous, since, apparently, Russia is ready to take risks and strike at Ukraine in the immediate vicinity of the territory of the alliance.
— How do you explain that Romania and NATO practically do not react in any way? Moreover, as you claim, Bucharest even tried to ignore reports about drones.
— I will have to move into the realm of speculation, since no one has openly talked about it. However, I associate the sluggish reaction with the policy of the administration of US President Joe Biden. The White House makes it clear that it does not want an escalation of the war. Washington wants to avoid what Russia could interpret as a provocation.
— Then what should the North Atlantic Alliance do when a Russian drone flew into its space?
— Russian drones are not carried by the wind into the territory of NATO countries. We have to shoot them down. This will not lead to escalation and will not create prerequisites for a direct armed clash with Moscow. But we have to react. In the North Atlantic Alliance, no one wants aggravations, and we, of course, should avoid them. However, NATO is still a defense alliance and must defend its territory, and if necessary, then shoot. And it doesn't matter where the threat comes from. There is no question of provocation here. Logically, Moscow will not be able to say that NATO provoked the conflict when, for example, it shot down a Russian drone on its territory. Let's not forget that a few months ago Russia destroyed an American drone over the Black Sea in international airspace, and we did not respond in any way. Thus, we are not talking here about whether the alliance wants or does not want to escalate the conflict. We need to defend ourselves. However, apparently, this is a big problem for NATO.
— To exaggerate a little, then, for example, if you gave orders, would you shoot down a Russian drone that violated the airspace of Romania or another North Atlantic Alliance state?
— It depends on the situation. But, in any case, I would like to have military means at my disposal in case Russia approached NATO territory. I can't say that I would shoot down drones under any circumstances, but, from my point of view, right now we don't have enough opportunities to defend ourselves and deter Moscow. After all, if we had certain forces stationed in the right places, it is still a big question whether Russia would provoke us and check us. After all, this is the instrument of deterring the enemy. It is important to have a defense that would force the enemy to abandon strikes, provocations and escalations, because the enemy would be afraid of a response. To do this, we must place people and equipment where Russia can attack. If we talk about Romania, I would send several batteries of American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems there.
— Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar said that because of the Russian special operation, Bucharest has already deployed 11 warships, two helicopters, six marine drones and three detachments that are designed to search for bombs at sea. In the air, NATO monitors the Romanian borders. Do you predict the dispatch of other military assets, say, air defense systems, which you have already mentioned?
— While I find it difficult to answer, since I do not sit in the Romanian government. But as an expert or a Romanian citizen, I would like to know. If the Romanian government needed such funds, it would contact its NATO allies and, above all, the United States. However, how much the White House is willing to help, that's the question. "Patriots" would stand in Romania close to the border with Ukraine. I hope that the incidents we talked about will force the White House to act to some extent. Washington has set the bar high. Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the North Atlantic Alliance will defend every inch of its territory. From my point of view, this means placing defense on the borders of NATO in such a way that it is clear: we really won't give up an inch. I'm not saying that if we deploy forces, we should definitely use them. However, the events that took place in Romania simply should not happen again. And it doesn't matter if it was an accident or a deliberate operation.
— Let's talk more about the likely aggravation. Should we be afraid of a conflict between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia, when the alliance would have to apply the fifth article of the collective defense treaty?
— From my point of view, the probability of applying the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty is extremely insignificant. I am even more convinced of this by looking at the actions of the Joe Biden administration. Although in general, who is in power in the United States is not so important in this matter. NATO is a defense alliance, and decisions in it are made on the basis of general agreement. If Russia were to strike at the territory of a member country, this does not mean that we should automatically do the same. Moscow is not going to commit suicide and will not put pressure on the alliance so that it will have to respond with weapons. I also want to remind you that everyone is talking about the fifth article, but few people remember what is actually written there. And it does not say that the states of the North Atlantic Alliance are obliged to participate in a possible armed conflict. It says that they are obliged to provide military assistance. Thus, they can send their contingent, or they can simply collect military aid, even if it will be helmets.
— Or they can, for example, share intelligence information and similar things with allies, right?
"That's right. Therefore, first of all, I say that it is extremely unlikely that the North Atlantic Alliance will apply the fifth article. But even so, the apocalypse will not necessarily begin, as many imagine. The Third World War will not begin immediately. From the fifth article to the end of the world is a huge distance. And no one wants to go down this path.
Author: Andrej Matišák
