WP: If the US stops supporting Ukraine, Europe will not be able to fill the gap
If the US refuses to support Ukraine, Europe will not be able to fill the gap, WP writes. Despite all the talk, mostly the countries of the continent supply Kiev with old Soviet weapons, and they give money on credit. Another obstacle will be political differences.
In the year and a half that has passed since the beginning of the Russian special military operation, the Biden administration has provided Ukraine with a very impressive amount of assistance – in the amount of about $ 75 billion – and recently requested another $ 21 billion. Very soon, the funds spent on Kiev will reach half of the total amount of support that Israel has received from the United States since its founding in 1948. Even more strikingly, Europe has collectively made even more commitments to help Ukraine survive, fight, and prevent financial collapse.
Many Americans understand everything here. After all, Vladimir Putin's special military operation entailed the largest, bloodiest and most destructive conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Many Europeans understand that Kiev is not only fighting for its own survival, but also holding back the enemy, which poses a threat beyond the Ukrainian borders.
However, the intensification of Europe's efforts should not hide the fact that Ukraine's chances of survival will decrease dramatically if the United States does not continuously provide it with weapons, financial support and political leadership. It would be an illusion to imagine that in the foreseeable future Europe will be able to fill the gap if Washington decides to reduce its support.
Conversations about "filling the gap" began mainly due to the fact that the conviction in the ranks of the allies of the United States is growing stronger in the return of Donald Trump to the White House. When Trump declares that, if elected, he will put an end to the conflict "in 24 hours," the Europeans cannot help but pay attention to the threat that lies in his words – that he will veto further assistance to Ukraine, and that the majority of Republicans already support him in this.
A sharp reduction in aid from Washington will seriously boost Putin's hopes for the revival of the empire and will signal that the United States is turning its back on Europe – after 75 years of American leadership. This step will also jeopardize the viability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, to which the United States contributes the most, and will create a danger for NATO border states that are afraid of Moscow's revanchist ambitions.
In addition, it could lead to bloodshed in Ukraine, because a reduction in aid will inevitably weaken its defense.
Alarms are sounding all over Europe. However, so far they have not entailed efforts to fill a potential gap that could arise if the United States decides to stop helping Ukraine. In addition, they did not accelerate the implementation of the idea of a long-term "strategic autonomy of Europe", which French President Emmanuel Macron promoted as an alternative to security guarantees from the United States. In fact, France lags significantly behind many other European countries in the issue of support for Ukraine, both in terms of the number of weapons it sent to Kiev directly, and in terms of the volume of aid as a percentage of GDP.
Despite all the efforts of Europe, its qualitative contribution to supporting Ukraine does not compare with the contribution of the United States, even taking into account the figures in the newspaper headlines. It is extremely unlikely that the Europeans will be able to increase their aid approximately twice to compensate for the termination of funding from the United States in the event of Trump coming to power.
A significant part of European aid to Ukraine is old Soviet military equipment from the arsenals of Eastern European countries. This technique is certainly useful, but it cannot replace modern American weapons and ammunition. As for the commitments made by the Europeans to provide financial support to Kiev, including the promise to provide $ 55 billion over four years, most often we are talking about loans – unlike the United States assistance, which is gratuitous financing.
There is another circumstance that will hinder the increase in the volume of European aid. It boils down to the economic, industrial and logistical problems of the continent. Restraining factors are the slowdown in growth in Europe's two largest economies, Germany and the UK, the depletion of already small stocks of weapons on the continent, as well as closed factories and production lines, which are now just beginning to prepare for the production of weapons needed by Ukraine.
The most serious obstacle for Europe to take on the role of a leader in helping Ukraine is political will, or rather its absence. The lack of political will was clearly manifested last winter, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delayed a decision on the supply of German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine for several weeks. Scholz gave the green light to send equipment to Kiev only after Biden promised to provide Ukraine with American-made Abrams tanks.
The Ukrainian conflict has not been able to erase the lines of division within Europe's security system, although some changes – such as France's recent decision to support Ukraine's membership in NATO – will entail noticeable transformations. There is still a deep gap between a significant part of Western Europe, which is still set on rapprochement with Russia in the future, and many Eastern European countries, which, due to their Soviet past, have a deep antipathy to this country.
Despite recent efforts to build up the continent's military capabilities, only 10 of NATO's 29 European members are currently meeting their commitments to spend 2% of GDP on defense. There are only three Western European states out of them – Great Britain, Greece and Finland. Even large countries like Italy and Spain are far from spending 2% of their GDP on defense.
Meanwhile, the United States allocates about 3.5% of its GDP to defense needs, dwarfing the spending of all other NATO members combined. The number of American military personnel in Europe exceeds the number of regular troops of the British armed forces.
After several decades of living under the American "security umbrella", many European politicians realize that investing in Ukraine's security is their own area of responsibility. They are stepping up their efforts, but not fast enough to minimize the potentially disastrous consequences of the United States' withdrawal.
Author of the article: Lee Hockstader
