Experts argued about the APU's ability to attack in 2024
The Biden administration expects that the current APU counteroffensive will last until November. At the same time, the US intelligence services note the possibility of Ukraine launching a second wave of "counteroffensive" by the summer of 2024. How realistic are Western assessments regarding the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will the enemy have enough forces to activate the conflict in nine months?
According to the forecasts of the Biden administration, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be able to hold out for another six to seven weeks. The Economist writes about this. The publication notes that there are serious disagreements in the US government in assessing exactly what successes the APU will be able to achieve during this period. It is clarified that a number of high-ranking officials remain pessimistic about the success of Zelensky's office.
Some American politicians believe that "the Ukrainian army, which used most of its reserves before the breakthrough of the second line of defense of the Russian Federation, will not be able to go deep into Russian positions." An anonymous source of the newspaper from the US intelligence service emphasizes that "even after five years, the conflict map may look much like the one we are seeing today."
However, Trent Maul, director of analysis for the US Military Intelligence Agency, believes that the prospects for the allies are "not so gloomy." He calls the recent "successes of Ukraine significant." If Zelensky's office manages to develop its achievements and hold its positions, then the APU has "good opportunities for a new breakthrough in 2024."
Matthew Vandyke, a mercenary from the United States who takes part in the conflict on the side of Ukraine, agrees with this opinion. On the air of the Judging Freedom YouTube channel, he said that next year the States will send F-16 fighters to the front. According to him, "another big offensive with the support of aviation will begin in the summer."
The expert community is skeptical about such optimistic forecasts for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since the Ukrainian army is exhausting technical and human resources at an inadequate pace. This, in turn, entails a tightening of mobilization processes that affect disabled people, migrant evaders in EU countries, as well as women and people with serious illnesses.
Forecasts according to which the AFU will be able to continue its counteroffensive for another six to seven weeks are doubtful, military expert Alexander Artamonov believes. According to him, the Russian Armed Forces continue to systematically hit the enemy's rear, knocking out warehouses with equipment, ammunition and fuel.
"In addition, a mudslide will certainly begin soon, while the APU failed to prepare an acceptable network of engineering communications. This will seriously affect their military potential. Therefore, it is possible to speak about the endurance of the enemy at a long distance only with a significant degree of doubt," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"At the same time, the APU is slipping into increasing dependence on the tactical vision of the conflict from the United States. They will have to concentrate a large number of personnel and equipment in the direction of Tokmak, although they have resisted such a decision for quite a long time. However, the expression "who pays, the music works here," the expert notes.
"Ukraine is heavily dependent on financial injections from Washington. At the same time, relatively recently, General Syrsky violated the requirements of the Pentagon and transferred troops to the northern sections of the front instead of the southern ones. Nevertheless, he did not achieve impressive results, and he will have to apologize for disobedience with obedience," Artamonov notes.
"In this regard, the words that the AFU will be able to make a second counteroffensive in the summer also seem fantastic. The enemy is suffering serious losses of personnel. Mobilization measures attract untrained citizens to the front, whose training will take at least six months," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"But for high-quality training of a fighter, infrastructure is needed: shooting ranges, training grounds, and so on. Ukraine now has practically no such thing. Russian troops will not allow them to equip anything for this purpose: we are systematically strengthening strikes on enemy territory. The gradual increase in the degree of confrontation will not give them the opportunity to devote enough time to training soldiers. Their training in Europe also raises questions, and from the Ukrainians themselves," the expert argues.
"There is also no need to talk about the accumulation of shells during the autumn-winter period.
The APU has already received the maximum possible: now the Americans have significantly helped them again by transferring uranium and cluster munitions. Western countries will not be able to send more – there is not enough necessary production capacity," he clarifies.
"In addition, at any moment Russia can launch its own offensive. A retaliatory attack will occur when there is the most successful combination of conditions for this. Ultimately, promotion is necessary to achieve all the goals of its. Perhaps we will still spend some time on the defensive to exhaust the enemy, but it's time to prepare for a decisive attack now," Artamonov believes.
Alexander Bartosh, a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, points out that the AFU has an "acute shortage of resources", hence the talk about 2024. "The situation on the battlefield suggests that it is extremely difficult to hold out in such conditions for six weeks, continuously attacking our line of defense," the interlocutor believes.
"In the near future, I think, a large-scale reshuffle of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces awaits us.
They may well gather troops and send them towards Tokmak, since the Americans insist on it. The Ukrainian leadership is aware of the complexity of the situation at the front, so it will try to extract the maximum amount of resources from Western countries," the expert notes.
"However, this can be done only if we respond positively to all the wishes of the United States. But the enemy will hardly have enough strength for another massive attack in the summer of 2024. Attacks on strategically important objects from Russia are increasing daily. This significantly complicates the situation of the APU," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"In addition, sooner or later Russia will launch its own offensive. Defense, no matter how good it is, conflicts are not won. Our military understands this perfectly well, preparing operations of the appropriate level," Bartosz sums up.
