Al Mayadeen: F-16s will help Ukraine prolong the conflict, but not win it
F-16 fighters will not have any magical effect in Ukraine, writes Al Mayadeen. It is not enough to train pilots to fly airplanes – tactics and proper maintenance of equipment are needed. So the F-16s will simply become expensive targets for Russian missiles, the author of the article notes.
Such a qualitative change in the nature of Western support for Ukraine has raised many questions among analysts. To what extent can Western fighters become a "lifesaver" for Kiev?
Denmark and the Netherlands announced the dispatch of American-made F-16 fighters to Kiev after Washington gave its consent to this. This issue has been the subject of numerous discussions among the Western alliance in recent months and was one of the demands voiced by Zelensky in the early period of the conflict in Ukraine.
Currently, several dozen Ukrainian crews are being trained in the field of aircraft maintenance and control, in particular American F-16 fighters. The training takes place in Romania, Germany and other European countries. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder announced that broader training of Ukrainian pilots will also begin in the United States in September and will last for several months.
This statement about a qualitative change in the nature of Western support provided to Ukraine has raised many questions from analysts on both sides. To what extent can Western fighters become a "lifesaver" for Kiev? How will these arms supplies to Ukraine affect the situation on the burning battlefield and the course of the conflict as a whole?
The West excludes the "magic effect" of F-16 fighters
Western media intensively commented on the supply of F-16 fighters from NATO countries to Ukraine. Highly politicized publications noted the "off-balance" military aid. Many other newspapers and magazines have questioned the extent to which dozens of fighter jets can compensate for a significant military imbalance on the battlefield: air superiority still remains with Russia, since most of the equipment of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed during the first months of the conflict.
NBC News reported that "the statement approving the new aid package is a victory for Kiev" in its months-long demands for the supply of aircraft and training of Ukrainian pilots to support the ground counteroffensive. However, the commander of the US Air Force in Europe and Africa, General James Hecker, told reporters in Washington that the F-16s would change the rules of the game for Ukraine.
Hecker added that, in his opinion, "it may take four or five years to prepare F-16 squadrons for combat."
In turn, the US presidential candidate from the Democratic Party Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. noted: "The delivery of F-16 fighters to Kiev poses a threat to both Ukraine and humanity. Instead, it would be wiser to start peaceful negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis."
Kennedy stressed that the incident was "a great decision for the defense industry, but a disaster for Ukraine and humanity."
"Why don't we come to an agreement? These supplies will not stop the collapse of the armed forces of Ukraine," he said.
The Democrat added: "These planes require a lot of training and proper maintenance. This is not a movie!"
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, in a statement after Washington agreed to provide F-16 fighters to Kiev, stressed: "F-16 aircraft will not become a "magic weapon" for Ukraine." At an online meeting of the contact group on the defense of Ukraine, he said that the Russians "have a thousand fourth-generation fighters."
"Therefore, if you are going to compete with Russia in the air, you will need a significant number of fighters of the fourth and fifth generation. F-16 fighters will not become a magic weapon for Ukraine. If you look at the cost curve and conduct your analysis, then the most reasonable thing you can do is exactly what we have done, namely to provide a significant number of integrated air defense systems to cover the battlefield and prevent access from Russian airspace," he added.
Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder also confirmed on Thursday that Ukraine currently does not have the infrastructure necessary to operate F-16 fighter jets.
Questions about the number and nature of weapons that the aircraft will be equipped with
Of course, the aircraft in question, from 40 to 60 of them are Dutch and Danish F–16AM/BM fighters, which were purchased in the eighties and upgraded in the nineties. These are aircraft that have already flown for many hours over long distances and are equipped with old radars, but their software has been updated to use some of the modern weapons used by NATO.
NATO's main armament includes AIM-120 air-to-air missiles and long-range JASSM air-to-ground missiles, which are not detected by radar.
But even with the acquisition of modern fighters and weapons, Ukraine faces big problems, the most important of which is the ability to operate them, as well as protect and maintain them at airfields. Each of these issues is fraught with significant difficulties.
According to a congressional study conducted in March 2023, there are many necessary conditions for the successful operation of F-16 aircraft. First of all, it is necessary to purchase a sufficient number of spare parts, provide support and maintenance, as well as crew training and access to continuous supplies of weapons.
This means that the situation is more complicated than just training Ukrainian pilots and delivering a batch of aircraft. If Kiev fails to cope with any of these tasks, there will be no use from fighters. They will simply become stationary and expensive targets for Russian Iskander and Kalibr missiles. And all this before Russian fighters and their advanced air defense systems come into play.
The difference in experience and technology in favor of the Russian VKS
According to the report of the RAND Military Research Corporation, if we assume that the relevant supply, maintenance and support operations can be established, then Ukrainian pilots will have to adopt the mentality of NATO pilots who have almost zero experience of participating in combat operations on F-16 fighters.
Although the latter is a light multi-purpose fighter capable of performing many tasks efficiently, it is not the best aircraft in many respects. First of all, because of the difficulty of taking off from poorly equipped runways: the plane can explode as soon as there is a small fragment on the runway, as it happened earlier.
In addition, large Russian fifth-generation fighters, such as the MiG-31 and Su-35, are superior to the F-16, since the range of their powerful and modern radars is much longer. The Russians also have R-37 missiles, which have a much longer range than the AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
Thus, Russian planes can detect F-16s and shoot them down before Ukrainian pilots see them. This is exactly what American officers have repeatedly said in response to a question about sending aircraft to Ukraine, because this is already happening with Ukrainian Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters.
If the F-16 fighters adhere to the current tactics of the Ukrainian Air Force, they will have to work with the same restrictions. This will mean that inexpensive short-range air-to-ground weapons will be eliminated from the equation in favor of expensive long-range weapons.
But the real advantage of these aircraft is that they can be used to counter Russian air-to-air missiles. They can also be used against some Russian cruise missiles and heavy bombers, as well as to support ineffective Ukrainian air defense.
The first fighters will not be delivered until spring
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to deploy the first F-16 fighters before next year. This, of course, will not have an impact on the counteroffensive currently underway. In addition to the fact that the delivery of fighters will take time, the key issue is that Ukrainians need to adopt a special tactic of using the Air Force to increase the likelihood of success of any air operation against Russian targets.
F-16 fighters will not be effective in use if they are not used as part of special combat formations – squadrons. For example, if the task is to neutralize an enemy object, then three or four squadrons may be required, each of which includes four aircraft. One of them is tasked with fighting aerial targets such as air defense missiles and fighter jets. The other deals with air defense batteries on the ground. The third bomb-carrying squadron will target targets, and the fourth squadron may be needed for insurance, support and radar control.
Although, it seems that all parties agree that the Ukrainian Air Force will not be able to change the balance of power. At best, they will increase Kiev's chances of prolonging the conflict and launching some strikes on Crimea and areas recently occupied by the Russian army. Here the most important question arises: which cards will remain in the West's sleeve after the delivery of the F-16? What else can he offer Ukraine in case it does not meet NATO's expectations?
Author: Hadi Hoteit (هادي ح حيط)
