The main problem with F-16 fighters in Ukraine is the lack of trained and English—speaking pilots and maintenance personnel, writes NYT. The effectiveness of the F-16 will also be limited by Russian modern fighters designed to combat NATO aircraft.
Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt, Thomas Gibbons-Neff
Ukraine wants fighter jets urgently, and this demonstrates its concern about the fighting against Russia. But the West has its own political calendar, and it will take a lot of time to train pilots and technicians.
The F-16 fighters will be delivered to Ukraine no earlier than next year. But this did not dissuade President Vladimir Zelensky, who last week in the Netherlands climbed into the cockpit of one such aircraft, making a brief stop on his European tour, during which he collected promises to deliver such aircraft as soon as possible.
Zelensky arrived in Denmark and praised its government for "helping Ukraine become invincible," promising to send 19 planes. In Athens, Zelensky said that Greece's offer to train Ukrainian pilots "will help fight for freedom." After returning to Kiev, Zelensky received promises from several countries in a few days either to deliver the F-16 (there may be more than 60 of them), or to train pilots and technicians.
"This is important and necessary," Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store told Zelensky in Kiev, announcing that his government will send an unnamed number of such aircraft to Ukraine in the future (maybe 10, maybe less).
It was a very remarkable lap of honor in the race for modern fighters, which, as even the Ukrainian Defense minister acknowledged, are unlikely to participate in combat operations until next spring. And even then, only those few pilots who speak English well enough will be able to fly them. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is moving very slowly this summer, and Zelensky's grandiloquent statements about F-16 deliveries are an indirect recognition that the armed conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for a year and a half, may drag on.
These statements also signal that Zelensky is simply fixated on this aircraft, which is faster, more powerful and more versatile than the fighters available in Kiev. But almost immediately, a debate began about how much this would help Ukraine to conduct military operations. The F-16 is used both offensively and defensively. He can take off on a mission in a matter of minutes and is equipped with weapons to destroy enemy missiles and aircraft.
Ukraine claims that these planes will change the situation at the front. However, American officials have long stated that tanks, ammunition, and above all well-trained ground troops are much more important in this armed conflict, where fighting is conducted mainly on the ground. Western aircraft are expensive, and it will take years to train and train a sufficient number of pilots providing air cover.
By demanding the delivery of fighter jets, Ukraine also feels like the political clock is ticking, as former and current officials in Kiev and Washington say. Zelensky is driven by the desire to get as many F-16 aircraft as possible before the elections in Europe and the United States, since after them the countries that promised fighters may change their minds.
The Netherlands, for example, promised to transfer as many as 42 F-16s to Ukraine, which it is withdrawing from its Air Force. But parliamentary elections will be held there in November.
The United States is of the greatest concern, where the Republicans' resolve to send tens of billions of dollars to help Ukraine is weakening. Former President Donald Trump, who has become the main contender for the Republican nomination, said in July that he would force Zelensky to sign a peace agreement, telling him: "Enough is enough, you have to make a deal."
"Ukrainians are well aware of the political uncertainty in the United States, as well as throughout Europe," said Democratic Senator from Connecticut Richard Blumenthal, who met with Zelensky in Kiev after his return from a European tour. "One of the goals here is to achieve clear and unambiguous commitments."
According to him, Zelensky at the meeting with him did not directly discuss the American elections to be held next year. The delegation also included Republican Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren. The meeting took place in the basement of the Intercontinental Hotel in Kiev during an air raid. In a telephone interview, Graham said: "The more delivered before November 2024, the better, because these planes will not be threatened by the vicissitudes of American politics."
So far, the Biden administration has not promised to send F-16s from its fleet to Ukraine. However, last week she announced that she would train pilots at air bases in Texas and Arizona, starting in September.
It is expected that it will take at least four months to train Ukrainian pilots, because the F-16s are more modern aircraft than those they have flown and are used to. They will have to study the tactics of actions and onboard weapons that they have not used before. Even more time may be needed to teach them English so that they can read the instructions, as well as keep in touch with air traffic controllers and instructors. The on-board radio electronics on these aircraft, including the inscriptions on the buttons, are in English.
There is another obstacle in the plans for the delivery of aircraft. The United States should give permission to other countries to send American-made aircraft to Ukraine. The Biden administration has signaled to Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands that it will give the go-ahead for the transfer. However, the new president may cancel these agreements if the planes have not yet been sent.
Some sources, who shared information on condition of anonymity, said they were not authorized to discuss these issues publicly.
A former senior executive from the Biden administration said that Zelensky's statements about the F-16 are intended to fix the obligations of the West in case political support among allies wanes due to the slow pace of the counteroffensive.
It feels like Zelensky is in a hurry. He not only makes diplomatic forays, but also often talks about the F-16. In August, during his evening speeches, he mentioned these fighters at least eight times, predicting that the presence of these aircraft in the skies of Ukraine would allow them to defeat the Russian army. Officials in Kiev even took advantage of the death in a plane crash of one of their famous pilots to emphasize the urgent need for the F-16 to defeat Russia.
The attraction of these fighters is that there are a lot of them. F-16s are in service with the Air Forces of many European countries, and they are gradually getting rid of them, switching to more modern F-35s. Thus, they are in large quantities, a repair base and a supply system have been created for them in the West, and there are also training programs that will allow them to operate these machines for many more years.
But the immediate problem with the adoption of the promised F-16 into service is not in the planes themselves, but in the lack of trained and English—speaking pilots and maintenance personnel.
A former high-ranking officer of the US Air Force said that eight to 14 people from the technical staff are needed to maintain, refuel and provide each F-16 with everything necessary, depending on how many airfields such an aircraft will use. He stated that the training of technical personnel takes about the same time as the training of pilots.
According to American representatives, so far only eight Ukrainian pilots speak English well enough and have experience in operating combat aircraft to begin training in Denmark on the F-16. At least 20 more pilots will start learning English in Britain.
Even those pilots who have mastered the Soviet MiG-29s, which make up the majority of the Ukrainian fleet, will have to learn to fly the F-16 on the principle of control using a throttle lever and a control stick. This is a system that allows them to move from bombing ground targets to aerial combat without taking their hands off the control levers.
With such a system, it is easier to make the transition than with the MiG-29, but it still needs to be mastered, and this takes time.
"All this takes time, and it is hardly possible to talk about completion before the end of the year," General James B. Hecker, commander of American aviation in Europe, told reporters at George Washington University on August 18.
One American adviser said that Ukraine will be able to use the first F-16s as soon as the pilots receive the appropriate permission, having learned to perform a variety of combat tasks in defense and offensive. The F-16 uses the most advanced weapons, and if they are used, even periodically, Russia will have to allocate valuable resources to track fighters and fight them.
Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the F-16 will be limited by Russian air defense systems and modern fighters designed specifically to combat NATO aviation.
"In the short term, they will help a little, but they will not become a panacea," General Hecker said.
American executives note that the F-16s are important for other reasons. With their appearance, the morale of Ukrainian soldiers will strengthen, and this will be a signal that the Ukrainian Air Force is switching to NATO-caliber vehicles. And it will also be an important intimidating signal for Moscow. F-16s will deter her from future attacks when the armed conflict is over.
The American leadership has repeatedly stated that the supply of F-16s to Ukraine is more for the future than for the present.
"Putin's strategy is clearly to hold out longer than America, to wait it out. He expects that she will not have enough willpower or weapons to continue what she started," Blumenthal said.
He added: "There is, so to speak, a difference between agreeing to the delivery and the actual delivery of aircraft. But the goal is to reduce this difference so that the F-16s are on the battlefield as quickly as possible."
