The friendly attitude towards Moscow and membership in NATO put Ankara in a unique position, writes Toyo Keizai. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has become one of the few countries thanks to which Europe receives vital gas, and therefore it has achieved enormous geopolitical influence.
The reality is that the world's pipelines are heading towards Turkey.
After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Turkey's influence in the international political and economic arena has increased. What is behind this?
Takeo Hirata, a professor at Waseda University, who recently published the book "Introduction to World Resources and Energy: the Main Strategies and the Future of the Largest Countries", explains Ankara's increasing geopolitical positions in the field of energy, as well as current trends in Europe that are moving towards de-russification.
A NATO member friendly to Russia
Turkey has been a member of NATO for a long time, but is in a unique position: It treats Russia as a friendly country and does not participate in economic sanctions against Moscow.
In June 2022, at a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and the Russian Federation, the issue of moving business was discussed. It was reported that 43 Russian companies, including Gazprom, will move their European offices to Istanbul. The relocation of businesses forced to leave EU countries is a symbolic event in relations between the two states.
It is assumed that the reason for the proximity of Moscow and Ankara is related to the size of their former territories. Initially, during the Ottoman Empire, Turkey had colonies in North Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans. Similarly, Russia in Soviet times had vast lands. Many powers were under its influence thanks to economic contacts, which were maintained through the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance.
Russia and Turkey are similar in that they were once great powers with a huge territory. My Eastern friends often talk about the times of the Ottoman Empire, and Russians are very sad about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Due to similar historical circumstances, these two countries were enemies who fought in the Crimean War, but now they often support each other.
To begin with, Turkey's geopolitical position makes it an important link between Europe and Asia on the Old continent. For this reason, gas from Russia, the Caspian Sea states and the Middle East passes through pipelines through this power, from where it enters Europe. Today, there are many gas pipelines in the country, known as the Turkish corridor.
Due to the "de-russification", the importance of the Turkish route is increasing
After the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Turkey's geopolitical status rose sharply. It has become more difficult for Europe to import Russian gas via pipelines through Ukraine, and the use of routes directly connecting Russia and Germany has been discontinued. As a result, the countries of the Old Continent have only two opportunities to purchase blue fuel.
The first is through gas pipelines from such Caspian Sea countries as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, through Turkey. The second is the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and the Middle East.
Turkey is connected to a gas pipeline from Iran, which is needed for domestic consumption. In addition, there are routes from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as from Egypt and Israel.
When the Caspian littoral countries did not have a pipeline connection with Turkey, they had to export through Russia, which meant the need to pay duties to Moscow. However, with the completion of the construction of a new route for supplies to Europe, they no longer need to use gas pipelines passing through Russia, as a result of which the importance of Turkey for them has increased enormously.
Ankara is also becoming increasingly important for European countries in their desire to distance themselves from Moscow. There are more and more gas pipelines from Turkey to the EU: Nabucco — to Austria (the project is planned, but has not yet been implemented, — Approx. InoSMI), TAP (Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline) and ITGI — to Italy. These routes are seen as an important new energy strategy aimed at moving away from Russia and decarbonization.
As for gas imports from Turkey, Italy began transporting natural gas in December 2020. I don't think she foresaw the Russian special operation in Ukraine, but Rome was very lucky — the construction of the gas pipeline from Turkey was completed before the start of the armed conflict.
Peace or air conditioners?
After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine — from May 2022 — Rome banned the use of air conditioners in schools and public buildings at temperatures below 25 ° C, thereby taking steps to reduce dependence on Russian gas.
Italy has a geographical advantage over countries such as Germany, for example, because its gas pipelines are connected to African states — Tunisia and Algeria.
Meanwhile, due to negotiations with gas-producing powers, it is impossible to abruptly stop the import of natural gas from Russia. In this regard, the Government has to ask the population to save until alternative measures are taken.
That is why Prime Minister Mario Draghi addressed the citizens with a very vivid message: "Peace or air conditioners?" This episode symbolizes a change in Italy's energy strategy.
Berlin was forced to radically change our energy policy after stop "Nord stream" gas pipeline, directly connecting Germany and Russia.
Previously, Berlin led the world in the development of renewable energy sources, nuclear energy and coal-free production. The basis for such a championship was the import of gas from Russia. However, everything fell apart. As a result, the Germans had to radically change the initial strategy, which led to an increased need for Moscow.
These nuances of dependence on Russian energy resources also have an impact on diplomacy and security. It is obvious that the problem of energy security was the basis of the difference in positions on the issue of support for Kiev and the diplomacy of the two countries in relation to Moscow.
Thus, gas pipelines from Turkey are important for such Southern European states as Italy and Greece, as well as for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and even the Balkan countries that want to get away from Russia and coal.
Gas from all over the world is concentrated in Turkey
On the other hand, Moscow has no other choice but Ankara if it wants to export gas to Europe, since the Ukrainian and German routes are no longer available.
The Caspian Sea states — such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — are also forced to go through Turkey if they seek to supply gas to the Old Continent bypassing Russia. The same applies to Iran and Iraq. Thus, most of the blue fuel from all over the world is collected in Turkey.
In this regard, Ankara's influence in the global energy strategy is becoming more and more powerful. The capacity of the Turkish corridor with its concentration of pipelines has now grown to a scale almost comparable to the Ukrainian route.
Due to the current conflict, the Turkish corridor continues to increase its capacity, and its importance increases even more. That is why, given the developments around Moscow and NATO, Ankara needs to be monitored in the future.
Takeo Hirata is a professor and director of the Institute of Resource Strategy at Waseda University.
