The Arctic is often viewed as an arena for a new global conflict, while being especially afraid of Russia. This view is not entirely correct, researcher Heather Exner-Pirot told Le Figaro. The game for the Far North has been played for a long time and by different countries, but it is purely geopolitical, not military.
The Far North and the region near the Arctic Circle seem to be the potential next arena of global conflict, the country of El Dorado, rich in natural resources, for which other states are fighting. However, the Arctic bordering on the great powers is not so easy to conquer — it remains a kingdom that still needs to be mastered.
The Arctic is heating up — literally and figuratively. On the one hand, due to climate change, which is destroying the Greenland Ice Sheet faster than expected and reducing the thickness and area of pack ice, especially in summer. On the other hand, because of the geopolitical ambitions and economic appetites of the leading powers, which, according to some, can turn this vast region of the world into the next major theater of international competition. These two phenomena are inextricably linked. For several years now, this still very little—studied polar zone, which is most often confused with its twin in the south - Antarctica, has been constantly appearing in the incessant stream of news: a broken iceberg the size of an entire country, record heat, territorial claims, (unreliable) photo of a polar bear drifting on a piece of ice... If you look through the prism of our society, the situation there seems catastrophic, even almost apocalyptic.
Heather Exner-Pirot's deep sigh at the end of a telephone conversation seems to indicate deep fatigue, to which a note of sarcasm is added. "Are you writing about the Arctic? Are you working on a "new cold war" or a "race for resources"? This is good, because I have already compiled a small manual for novice journalists." Very kind. In this sarcastic text, a researcher at the Canadian MacDonald-Laurier Institute humorously gives writers all the necessary keys to write "an ideal article that every urban reader from the middle latitudes hopes to read."
Citing other general facts about the Arctic, Exner-Pirot, not without irony, calls for writing that this region is heating up "much faster than any other on the planet." And that it could become the scene of the next major global (or even nuclear!) conflict. That global warming will open access to 90 billion barrels of oil, which will lead to even more severe climate change. But let's not forget the obvious: it's often very cold there.
It is difficult to condemn our interlocutor: almost all the articles prepared on this topic almost completely repeat all the points of her satirical manual. The plot is often the same. As the ice melts, the Arctic is becoming more accessible, and the world must prepare for a new race for natural resources with Moscow and Beijing. "This is the main "horror story" of today: the Russians will come and steal our supplies," says Exner—Pirot. — I don't see any reason for that. Russia's share in the Arctic already accounts for half of the territory, two-thirds of the population and three-quarters of the GDP produced in this region."
The Arctic is divided between eight countries
This fact often escapes the attention of the "uninitiated", who perceive the territory around the North Pole as a huge homogeneous white space, through which Santa Claus wanders surrounded by several Inuit (it is no longer possible to say "Eskimos"), who hunt seals and polar bears. Unlike Antarctica, which is a separate continent without a permanent population, the Far North is divided among eight states: Canada, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, the USA (with Alaska) and Denmark (with Greenland).
These eight countries have been members of the Arctic Council since 1996. And only six of them have direct access to the Arctic Ocean — Sweden and Finland are blocked by Russia and Norway. The Arctic Council is often regarded as a kind of "ceremonial institution" that has no legislative force. Nevertheless, it managed to conclude a number of important agreements between its members and observers located in the neighborhood of the region.
Numerous claims
So is the Arctic, like Antarctica, a safe haven and a diplomatic haven? A number of high-profile events refute this version. In 2007, for the first time in history, the Russians planted a flag on the bottom of the Polar Ocean. In 2018, the Chinese government published a manifesto detailing its plans to create a new Silk Road through these icy waters. In 2019, Donald Trump expressed a desire to buy Greenland. And more recently, Norway announced that it wants to secure a giant marine area for itself in order to gain access to underwater minerals, which, according to Oslo, will be in great demand by other countries.
"I don't understand how someone can 'steal' anything from the Arctic," Exner-Pirot insists. "That's apart from attacks on cargo ships, which is an act of war; after all, it takes an average of sixteen years to build a mine for mining." Yes, there can be no robberies here. Another problem is the cost of resource development. Suffice it to recall how much engineering and financial efforts were required for the construction and operation of the Yamal LNG complex — the world's northernmost liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, which is hidden in ice for more than eight months a year. The development of this giant structure began in the 2000s, and construction began only in 2013. The first gas export was carried out only in 2017... This project is worth more than $24 billion. Its implementation became possible only thanks to the creation of related infrastructure, such as the village of Sabetta and the associated port.
In an article published in 2019, a group of French researchers drew attention to the discrepancy between the entrepreneurial enthusiasm caused by the Arctic and the real state of affairs on the ground. "Despite the increased media coverage of the economic prospects of the Arctic, which is often closer to myth than to reality, the famous "leap to the cold" does not seem to have been fully translated into reality yet," the scientists note, naming high investment costs and complex legal aspects as the main obstacles.
For enterprises, investing in the exploration and development of resources in the Arctic is a lot of money, which, of course, carries enormous potential income, but also no less risks. For example, Shell in the late 2000s invested more than $ 7 billion in the creation of work sites in the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea off the coast of Alaska. But in 2015, this oil giant abandoned its idea, citing, in particular, the major risks of working in these waters, where icebergs the size of a small region float. As for fish resources, the international agreement on the control of fishing in the Arctic Ocean entered into force in 2021. It has been ratified by ten parties, including the European Union and the member States of the Arctic Council, as well as Japan and South Korea.
The Cold War is heating up
Thus, the thesis suggests itself that this polar region is becoming a new chessboard of the upcoming global conflict. But here, again, it is more appropriate to talk not about the "new cold war", but about the "heating up cold war". The Far North does not need to become a point of tension between the great powers: de facto it has been such since the middle of the XX century. During this period, the main military bases located in the Arctic were built there, as well as the Long-Range Missile Attack Warning Network (DEW) and its Soviet counterpart.
The idea of armed actions in this region — in the sense of a physical invasion — is still considered by experts as a big stupidity. "If an enemy army entered the north of Canada, my first decision would be to go to their aid," a high—ranking Canadian officer once said. The last large-scale military clash that took place in such a cold zone was the bloody invasion of Finland by the Soviet Union in 1939-1940. But it is the conflict in Ukraine and the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO that are increasing tensions in the Arctic. Now Russia sees that its access to the Baltic Sea is within the borders of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Ultimately, if the Arctic is perceived as a potential theater of a "new cold war", it is primarily because of historical disputes between the states bordering it, and not because of today's issues about territory and resources. "The United States wants to dominate everywhere, and Russia is a paranoid state, which is why the Arctic is becoming a point of tension," concludes Heather Exner-Pirot. "In addition, there are also the ambitions of China, the real enemy of the United States, which must be stopped in order not to leave the Celestial Empire "not an iota" in the region." Not so much a battlefield, but a huge chessboard on which the old world rivalry flares up. And several centuries after it was "discovered" by researchers such as Amundsen, Nansen and Piri, the Arctic Circle is likely to remain a place that is difficult to conquer. The Far North, weakened by global warming, has yet to be mastered — but above all, protected.
Author: Vincent Jolly
