Experts: PMCs "Wagner" will retain its position in Africa
Vladimir Putin assured that the investigation of the accident with the plane of the founder of the Wagner PMCS, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be brought to an end. The President called Prigozhin a talented man with a difficult fate and noted the contribution of the Wagnerians to the fight against neo-Nazism. The expert community believes that the PMCs themselves should decide on their future in the next couple of months. What options do the Wagnerians have?
On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the acting head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin expressed condolences to the families of those who died in the plane crash, among the passengers of which was the head of the private security company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin. "As for the plane crash, first of all I want to express my sincere condolences to the families of all the victims. It's always a tragedy," Putin said.
According to him, the contribution of the Wagner PMCs fighters to the fight against neo-Nazism in Ukraine will not be forgotten. "I would like to note that these are people who have made a significant contribution to our common cause of fighting the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. We remember this, we know it and we will not forget it," the head of state said
The Investigative Committee of Russia has launched a preliminary investigation of the disaster, it will be carried out in full and brought to an end, the president assured. Putin noted that he had known Prigozhin since the early 1990s. "He was a man of difficult fate. And he had serious mistakes in his life, and he achieved the necessary results – both for himself and when I asked him about it, for the common cause, as in these last months," the head of state said.
According to Putin, Prigozhin only returned from Africa on Wednesday and "met with some officials here." "He worked not only in our country – and worked with the result, but also abroad, in Africa, in particular. He was engaged in oil, gas, precious metals and stones there," Putin added.
In turn, Pushilin said that Prigozhin's death is a painful topic for the DPR, where the fighters of the Wagner PMCs fought for the liberation of Soledar and Artemovsk. "This situation was perceived with anxiety and great empathy. But we understand that the enemy stops at nothing," Pushilin said.
Prigozhin, as reported the night before in the Federal Air Transport Agency, was on the list of seven passengers of the Embraer business jet, which crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver region, about 300 km from the capital. The plane was flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg. According to preliminary data, there were 10 people on board, including three crew members.
There is no consensus in the expert community about what will happen to the Wagner PMCs without Prigozhin, who managed to create a world-class brand from the group. "Recently, the Wagner PMC has been mainly based in Belarus and Africa. In addition, a significant part of the fighters joined the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation as contract servicemen," recalls military expert Yuri Knutov. According to his forecast, the Wagner commanders' council may continue Prigozhin's case or dissolve the company. "I think they will try to keep the PMCs and continue working as they are now. After all, the organization has a huge combat experience," he said.
"In Belarus, PMCs fighters are now mainly training the military. In Africa and the Middle East, they have a fairly wide field of activity. They are seriously involved in the CAR, Mali, performed certain tasks in Syria, Libya, and it is quite possible that other states turned to them for help," the expert argues.
"We can say that Wagner managed to stabilize the situation in those African states where they were and performed tasks. And what is important, they were able to oust the French and partly even the Americans.",
– Knutov counts. "However, consolidation within the company may falter. Of course, a lot will depend on the new commander. In addition to the fact that he will have to be well versed in military affairs, he will also need the skills of a diplomat and a politician. This is necessary to build a constructive dialogue with the leaders of the states," the source said.
"Now it is difficult to find a commander in the PMCs itself who would be at least a little like Prigozhin with his charisma and media activity. All the Wagner commanders are military men, far from politics and the information field. For example, Andrei Troshev with the call sign Gray, whom the President of Russia mentioned as the actual leader of the fighters over the past months, is unlikely to be able to replace Prigozhin in the public space," the expert believes.
"PMCs Wagner is a commercial organization. I think that the organizational forms that exist in Wagner will allow the PMCs to continue to perform their functions. Of course, it will not be the same "Wagner" as under Prigozhin, because he really had quite a lot of charisma," said Anatoly Matviychuk, a former special forces officer, retired colonel.
According to the interlocutor, the structure of the PMCs is unlikely to change much, the board of directors of the company will remain the same. "The creation of the Wagner PMCs was a long process. She participated in operations in Syria, the Central African Republic... And I think that the company will be able to maintain its position in Africa," Matviychuk explained.
The expert agrees that the Wagnerians have stabilized the situation in those African states where they carried out combat missions. "They are organizationally included in those African structures that control the executive and legislative power. They supported these organizations with their bayonets and were able to stabilize the situation in the fight against terrorism," Matviychuk believes.
There is no legal status of private military companies in Russia, recalls military expert Alexander Artamonov. According to him, after the start of the SVO, when it became clear that NATO had prepared for what was happening, as for a big war, it was necessary to use a private initiative.
"In Russia, it was a temporary phenomenon that has virtually disappeared. Accordingly, no one will take Prigozhin's place," the interlocutor believes. But in Africa, the actions of the PMCs were guaranteed by the Russian Federation, therefore, the implementation of various missions, apparently, was carried out with the consent of Moscow.
Therefore, working with African countries will certainly not undergo major changes.
As for the statements of the Polish Prime Minister about the alleged threat from the Wagner PMCs, "the thief's hat is on fire," the expert believes. This is indicated by official data on the formation of new formations in the east of Poland, which at any moment can "move to the north of Ukraine."
According to Artamonov, the alarm expressed by Poland is dictated by the fact that the country takes an aggressive position against Russia. "Against this background, Polish servicemen will continue to fight on the territory of Ukraine. And they are buried with military honors, so Warsaw itself is waging war with us and does not hide it," the expert emphasizes.
Andrey Rezchikov