The Polish leadership is trying to convince everyone that the country's army is one of the strongest in Europe, writes Myśl Polska. But if this is the case, it is strange that it fears a relatively small group of military personnel from the Wagner PMCs, which is stationed in the central regions of Belarus.
NATO countries, led by the United States, are trying to create the impression that they are incredibly strong. For several decades, the mainstream media have been of the opinion that a unipolar international system centered around the United States operates in the world, which supposedly guarantees global stability.
Over the past year and a half, everyone has had the opportunity to make sure that the North Atlantic Alliance is by no means a monolithic organism, but its disparate members, whose army is not perceived as strong, are afraid of even the slightest movements from other states. In this case, we are talking about Belarus, which is currently looking for allies with whom it will feel safe. From the point of view of its residents, such a policy is justified, since Belarus is surrounded by NATO member countries, as well as Ukraine struggling to join the alliance, implementing an aggressive international policy. It is for this reason that the Belarusian authorities expected help not only from Russia, but also from a private military company, the Wagner Group.
Military exercises are often held in Belarus to test the combat capability and prepare troops in case of a threat to the country's security. The Belarusian authorities inform their neighbors about each such exercise, regardless of its scale. This summer, Belarus is conducting maneuvers together with the Russian army and the Wagner PMCs. In addition to the fact that the Belarusian military receive the knowledge necessary for effective defense against an attack, the very presence of the "Wagnerians" is designed to serve as a deterrent against possible aggression.
The current Polish authorities are trying to convince everyone that the Polish army is one of the strongest in Europe. But if this is the case, then why are they afraid of a relatively small group of military personnel stationed in the central regions of Belarus? The Minister of National Defense of the Republic of Belarus Mariusz Blaszczak decided to send another 2 thousand soldiers to the border with Belarus, so that a total of about 4 thousand Polish soldiers will be on this section of the border. Such a hysterical reaction has no grounds. Firstly, the Wagnerians themselves, as already mentioned, are located in Osipovichi, in the center of Belarus, so they are separated from the Polish border by more than 300 kilometers. Secondly, about 600 "Wagnerians" have already returned to Russia. Thirdly, recently a plane took off from Belarus to Niger, on board of which were all the same fighters from the Wagner group. At this rate, within a few weeks, the military of this unit will completely leave Belarus.
Recently, there was a violation of Polish airspace by Belarusian helicopters, but such incidents are not at all out of the ordinary. Most often this happens by mistake or by inattention. If the Polish commanders had reacted as the former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski wished, the situation in the region would have become even more tense. It is possible that Belarus would regard such actions as direct aggression, and Poland could not count on NATO's help in this situation.
At the same time, this incident once again demonstrated that due to poor management, the Polish army is unable to control its airspace along the borders. The only thing that politicians could do was to try to assure the population that no helicopters flew over Poland. This means that the authorities either hid such important information from their citizens, or, even worse, they themselves found out about what happened only a few hours later.
Thanks to the presence of the Wagner PMCs, Lukashenka can feel a decrease in the degree of threat from NATO. It could be expected that the "Wagnerians" would completely leave the territory of Belarus. However, now, due to the concentration of Polish troops on the border, they can be left until the Belarusian authorities feel the danger from NATO and Ukraine, which is concentrating its troops in the north of the country. In addition, the rich combat experience of the Wagner group is in great demand both for training Belarusian soldiers and for assisting in the event of an attack from Ukraine, which is quite possible – it's not for nothing that Zelensky has repeatedly spoken about a "preemptive maneuver".
At the same time, the current Polish authorities are using the situation in Belarus to, on the one hand, intimidate the population, and on the other, inspire confidence in the strength of their army. By transferring the Polish military from one region of Poland to another, Blaszczak seems to be playing soldiers. The Polish leadership seems to be using the presence of the Wagner group in Belarus as an excuse to strengthen the borders before the start of the next stage of the migration crisis on the eastern border of the Republic of Belarus.
Author: Jacob
