Kiev may receive the first batch of aircraft before the New Year
Western countries have agreed to transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine, the Netherlands and Denmark will send the first batches of aircraft. Kiev may receive something before the New Year, but most of the deliveries will be in 2024. At the same time, Ukraine must fulfill a number of conditions concerning the training of pilots, technicians and infrastructure. Izvestia was looking into how the use of Western aviation would affect the course of hostilities.
What is known about the supply of aircraft
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky went on a new European tour. First, he visited Sweden, where he tried to negotiate the supply of Gripen fighters to Kiev. Concrete results could not be achieved, although Zelensky declared "breakthrough results". "Step by step, from negotiations to negotiations, we are getting closer to the fact that the Gripens appear in our sky," he said.
Then the President of Ukraine arrived in the Netherlands, where he met with Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Following the talks, Zelensky announced that he had concluded a "historic agreement." According to him, Amsterdam has agreed to transfer 42 F-16 fighters. At the same time, Rutte's version differed somewhat from the statements of the Ukrainian president. He noted that the Netherlands has only planes and it is too early to say how many of them will be sent to Ukraine. The Dutch politician also added that Kiev has yet to fulfill a number of certain conditions, he did not provide details.
After that, Zelensky arrived in Denmark. There, at a joint press conference, the country's Prime Minister, Matte Frederiksen, announced that Copenhagen would transfer 19 F-16 fighters. "We expect that Ukraine will receive the first six combat aircraft closer to the New Year," she said. According to her, eight fighters will be transferred in 2024, five more in 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in an F-16 fighter jet at Skridstrup Air Base in Voyens, Denmark, August 20, 2023
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Ritzau Scanpix/Mads Claus Rasmussen
In turn, the Danish Ministry of Defense reported that Kiev must fulfill a number of conditions. Including completing pilot training, as well as preparing the necessary infrastructure and solving logistical issues. "At the same time, we are striving to expand our aviation coalition and invite other interested countries to participate," the ministry said in a statement.
Zelensky, in turn, said that Ukrainian pilots and engineers have already started training in Denmark. It is known that 70 pilots participate in the training program. "We are working on the speed of preparation. We discussed separately today the possibility of expanding the training mission," he stressed.
Why did the West agree to supply
Ukrainian aviation suffered significant losses during the SVO. As of February 2022, 152 combat aircraft were registered in the country's air force. For a year and a half, the losses documented and recognized, including by the Western press, amounted to about 70 cars. At the initial stage, the retired equipment was reimbursed by the countries of Eastern Europe, primarily Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, at the expense of Soviet reserves, then their hangars were emptied.
In such circumstances, Ukraine has become more active in asking for supplies of Western combat aircraft. Back in October last year, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk sent a letter to American congressmen, in which he called on them to "abandon restraint" and transfer the fourth-generation F-15 and F-16 fighters. The speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, said that at the first stage Kiev would like to receive 24 fighters. He noted that runways are already being prepared in different regions of the country.
F-16 fighters of the Royal Netherlands Air Force
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw
Initially, Western leaders responded to these requests with extreme restraint. So, US President Joe Biden publicly refused to hand over the planes. "We should leave them here, this is a completely different situation," he said, answering journalists' questions.
There was no consensus in the EU either. So, in the Netherlands, they said that the authorities were ready to consider requests "without any prejudice." French President Emmanuel Macron did not refuse to transfer the aircraft, but called the issue irrelevant. According to him, artillery installations and air defense systems are much more important for Kiev. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the supply of aviation is out of the question.
There were several reasons. On the one hand, Western officials feared that the confrontation between Russia and NATO could seriously escalate due to the transfer of aviation. "Combat aircraft are much more complex systems than battle tanks, and have a completely different range and firepower," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. In addition, the West explained that there were few qualified pilots left in Ukraine, and it would take at least six months to train existing pilots.
Gradually, however, the position changed. The Ukrainian counteroffensive turned out to be not at all as triumphant as expected in the West. In Kiev, they explained that the AFU lacks just aviation support. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny drew attention to the fact that the NATO doctrine does not imply going on the offensive without air superiority. "And Ukraine, turning to offensive operations, what doctrine should it adhere to? Or is it not our business?" he was indignant. Zaluzhny also complained that the Soviet combat vehicles that remain at the disposal of Ukraine are noticeably inferior to modern Russian aircraft.
Photo: TASS/EPA/MADS CLAUS RASMUSSEN
Image source: iz.ru
As a result, in July, 11 NATO countries signed a memorandum on the beginning of training Ukrainian pilots for the F-16. In August, training began in the UK, Sweden and Denmark. The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuk, clarified that pilots who graduated from military schools in 2016 and have combat experience train on Swedish territory. In the UK — graduates of this year. In mid-August, the United States also allowed Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer fighter jets to Kiev. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has sent corresponding letters to Copenhagen and Amsterdam.
What the experts say
Military analyst Vladimir Evseev believes that the F-16 deliveries will not have a significant impact on the situation in the combat zone.
— The level of training of Ukrainian pilots will still remain low. Russia has a powerful air defense system, besides, our Russian Aerospace Forces will bomb Ukrainian airfields, destroy aircraft in their bases. As a result, the effect of F-16 deliveries will be limited," he notes.
Evseev adds that Western countries will not rush to transfer aircraft.
Romanian Air Force F-16 fighters
Image source: Photo: TASS/Zuma/Gianluca Vannicelli
— We see that the United States does not want to expose its equipment in a negative light. For example, the Americans have not yet handed over the Abrams tanks. It is advantageous for them that the media and social networks flashed footage of destroyed German tanks, and their own equipment remained invulnerable. Probably, the F-16 will not appear at the front before the spring of next year. If things are going to be bad for the AFU by that time, then they can refuse to supply aircraft in principle," he emphasizes.
Military expert Anatoly Matviychuk says that the results of Zelensky's negotiations in the Netherlands look extremely vague — neither the timing nor the volume of deliveries are specified.
— There is more clarity with Danish planes. It seems that six planes will arrive before the New Year. This is a negligible amount. Ukraine needs at least 220-300 aircraft to cover an army group, but no one gives such an armada," the source says.
Matviychuk also notes that in order to fulfill the tasks, Ukraine needs to train pilots and technical staff, cover aircraft with air defense and electronic warfare systems, provide them with intelligence information and targeting, equip airfields and much more.
Photo: Getty Images/ Alex Babenko
Image source: iz.ru
— None of this is expected. Therefore, I believe that another unhealthy PR campaign is being played out. Zelensky got the opportunity to report on the "peremog", the countries of the West — to demonstrate their support for Kiev," he says.
Bogdan Lvovsky
