The resource-rich Arctic looks promising for the whole world, and therefore the recent activation of Russia and China in the region has attracted the attention of the West. But if Moscow's ambitions are natural — it has the right to develop its lands — then Beijing's expansion causes serious concern, writes the author of the article in JB Press.
In August 2023, not a day goes by without reports of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. And they also often talk about China's ambitious plans to seize Taiwan.
At the same time, Moscow and Beijing are seeking to increase their presence in the Arctic Ocean. Of course, the Western powers are not far behind them either. These developments in the region are not often discussed in Tokyo.
Nevertheless, the increased influence of these countries in the Arctic will have an impact on Japan in the future. Takahiro Ishihara, an instructor at the school of officers of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces, a captain of the second rank and a teacher at Keio University, draws attention to this.
What are Russia and China trying to do in the Arctic, how do Western states react to their actions, and how will global warming change the Arctic Ocean? We talked with Ishihara, the author of the book "The World War for the Arctic Ocean has begun."
JB Press: Please explain why so much attention is being paid to the Arctic Ocean now?
Takahiro Ishihara: There are two reasons for this: recent strategic challenges from Moscow and global warming.
In August 2022, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Stoltenberg said that Russia and China are working together to increase their presence in the Arctic. He expressed alarm that this is a strategic challenge for NATO.
The amount of ice in this region is decreasing due to global warming. This will allow ships to pass through the Arctic Ocean, and as a result, new shipping routes will be developed.
Now the way from Hamburg (Germany) to Yokohama across the Indian Ocean is about 21 thousand kilometers. In the case of the development of the polar sea route, this figure will be reduced to 13 thousand, that is, it will decrease by about 60%.
— What other benefits can be obtained from the Arctic Ocean as a result of global warming?
— According to experts, 30% of the world's undiscovered gas reserves and 13% of oil reserves are located in the Arctic.
Currently, the Arctic Ocean is covered with ice, which makes it difficult to carry out drilling operations there. But when the ice melts, the ocean will become familiar to us. When this happens, it will be possible to use existing drilling technologies to extract resources from the bottom.
— In 2008, five coastal states of the Arctic Ocean (Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada and the USA) adopted the Ilulissat Declaration. For what purposes?
The geopolitical significance of Greenland and Iceland
— The Antarctic Treaty applies to the relevant region and provides for its peaceful use, a ban on the exploitation of resources and the freezing of territorial rights.
Antarctica is a continent, while the Arctic is an ocean (that is, the ocean is of the greatest importance, — Approx. InoSMI). That is, it should be managed in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This is exactly what the Ilulissat Declaration says.
According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, States with a coastline have the right to define a space of 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from their shores as their own exclusive economic zones and continental shelves, which includes the issue of exploration and development of natural resources. By applying these rules to the Arctic Ocean, the five Arctic states can control various interests in this region.
— In the period from World War II to the end of the Cold War, American military bases were built in Greenland and Iceland. What are the consequences of their creation?
— Let's start with the battles for the Atlantic during World War II.
Supplies from North America to the UK had to be delivered across the North Atlantic. Germany withdrew through the Danish Strait (between Greenland and Iceland) The world's most powerful unsinkable warship, the Bismarck, and sent submarines on patrol to interrupt sea traffic between Europe and North America.
Greenland is still the territory of Denmark, but during the Second World War Iceland was also part of this country.
In April 1940, Nazi Germany occupied mainland Denmark. After that, the island was taken under the protection of the United States by the decision of the Danish ambassador in Washington. This allowed America to establish bases in Greenland.
Their location not only on this island, but also in Iceland gave the United States an advantage over German troops. Of course, Germany also planned to capture Iceland in order to gain an advantage over Washington and London.
As a result, the British occupied Iceland earlier than the Germans. After that, it was decided to deploy American Marines there instead of the British garrison.
Thus, until 1945, both the German campaign to seize sea crossings and the Allied operations to protect water communications continued.
During the Cold War, the confrontation between the USSR and the countries of Eastern Europe, which were members of the Warsaw Pact Organization, with the United States and Europe began. At that time, there was a fear that the ATS troops would attack West Germany from the Fulda Corridor — the border between the east and west of the country — and move on the developed powers of the Old continent, which would lead to war.
In the event of a war in Europe, there would be a need to deliver cargo, ammunition and troops from North America. Then the USSR could deploy submarines in the North Atlantic to destroy transport vessels. There were rumors that the second Battle of the Atlantic was coming.
This led to the idea during the Cold War to use the line connecting Greenland, Iceland and the UK (the GIUK gap) to prevent Moscow from attacking the sea lanes.
After the end of the Cold War, the US military withdrew its troops from Iceland, but in 2018 their bases resumed work. The modernized US fort in Greenland continues to function as a front line of missile defense.
Russia's intentions to build up its armed forces in the Arctic region
— What can you say about the Russian military buildup and Moscow's policy in the Arctic?
— Over the past decade, Russia has expanded and modernized existing military bases and airfields in the Arctic. In addition, it has erected at least three new facilities.
Also, since January 1, 2021, the Russian Northern Fleet is considered a military district, that is, its status has been upgraded.
The Northern Fleet is one of the fleets of the Russian Navy, whose main task is the defense of the Arctic Ocean. The military district is under the jurisdiction of the armed forces.
Previously, there were only four military districts in Russia: Western, Southern, Central and Eastern. With the transformation of the Northern Fleet into a military district, a fifth appeared. To strengthen its presence in the Arctic, Russia deliberately created a new military district focused on the Navy and designed to work in the Arctic Ocean.
In August 2022, the Russian maritime doctrine, a document defining the maritime strategy, was revised. This is a 55-page article in which the Arctic is mentioned on page 22. It was assumed that the special operation in Ukraine would end in August 2022, but this did not happen, so the future was uncertain.
Despite this, Moscow has demonstrated to the world its readiness to take an ambitious position on the Arctic by presenting a new naval strategy.
— Next, I would like to talk about China's Arctic policy. It has no access to the Arctic Ocean. Despite this, Beijing is trying to be active in the region. By what means does it ensure its presence in the Arctic?
Chinese military intelligence needed for Arctic expansion
— At the end of the 2000s, China began a steady movement towards becoming a major power. Around the same time, he had an impulse to actively go abroad and demonstrate his presence.
It is assumed that already at this time the Arctic Ocean came into view of Beijing.
So, in 2012, he conducted the fifth patrol in this region. The Chinese icebreaker "Xuelong" took on the task of passing through the Arctic by the shortest route on the way back. He returned safely to his homeland. This was the first such case outside the five coastal states of the Arctic Ocean. The Celestial Empire has widely advertised this achievement in front of the whole world.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. The United States and other Western powers have imposed economic sanctions against it. After that, a rapid rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing began. At the request of the former, Chinese companies have sent oceanographic research vessels [to the region] to conduct seismic surveys and observations using autonomous underwater robots.
Beijing, in turn, stated that it supports scientific research in the Arctic Ocean at the request of Moscow.
Meanwhile, it is noted that during the collection of seismic data conducted by Chinese companies in 2016 by order of Russian oil corporations, information could be obtained that can also be used for military purposes.
I will not go into details, but I will say that the collection of seismic data allows you to get information about the relief of the ocean floor. This information is used in emergency situations to detect enemy submarines. In other words, this is classified military data.
This is how the Celestial Empire receives combat intelligence for its expansion in the Arctic Ocean.
In January 2018, Beijing also published a document on Arctic policy. It says that the "One Belt, One Road" initiative officially includes the Arctic Silk Road.
In the past, China has provided various forms of financial support to the countries of the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia under this initiative. The Arctic policy document will allow him to officially implement investments and initiate infrastructure development in Greenland and Iceland, as well as assistance to Southeast Asian states. This worried the neighbors in the region.
Western powers have previously been wary of the Arctic expansion of the Celestial Empire and the consolidation of its interests there. The document on the policy towards the Arctic caused them serious alarm.
The significance of the expanding influence of Russia and China on Japan
— Finally, how will the expansion of the presence of Russia and China in the Arctic affect the world in the future, as well as how will this affect Japan? What should Tokyo do in this regard?
— There is nothing wrong with Russia developing resources in its waters. Japan can import them.
However, if Chinese warships start entering the Arctic Ocean, it will affect our country. It is impossible to teleport there from the Celestial Empire. The vessels of the PRC will have to pass through the waters around Japan and move north along the Japanese archipelago and the "Northern Territories". The Maritime Self-Defense Forces will have to closely monitor their movements.
Economic rights to the Arctic Ocean belong to five coastal States in accordance with the Ilulissat Declaration. On the other hand, a system has already been created that allows other countries to cooperate with these in the field of scientific research on global warming and other problems.
Our country is also actively involved in Arctic scientific research. In 2021, the Japanese Agency for Marine Sciences and Technology began construction of an Arctic research vessel, the operation of which is scheduled to begin in 2026. A competition for the name is currently taking place (the deadline for submitting applications is October 20, 2023).
In May 2023, at a meeting of the Ministers of Science and Technology of the G7 countries, it was announced that observations of the Arctic Ocean would be intensified.
I would like Tokyo to participate more actively in polar affairs, not from the point of view of securing interests or obtaining resources, but from the position of science. This is the purpose of Japan as a maritime state.
Author: Yoko Seki
