Zelensky hopes to capture Artemovsk, and when this adventure fails, huge problems await him, Asia Times writes. The miscalculations of the Ukrainian president may force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to take power into their own hands and overthrow him, the author of the article believes.
The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the challenges from Russia in Kupyansk, Liman and Artemovsk suggest that decisive events are brewing during the conflict.
It is too early to talk about a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict, but the inability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to break through the Russian defense along the entire southern line and the challenges from Russia in the Kupyansk, Limansky and Artemovsky directions suggest that the conflict is nearing a denouement.
That is why the Biden administration has requested another $20 billion from Congress for Kiev. It seems that this is being done in order to provide psychological support to both President Vladimir Zelensky and the Ukrainian army.
However, this time Congress may not approve this absurd request. It is unclear what exactly these 20 billion are intended for, and the mood in the United States and Europe is gradually changing. There is an obvious shift towards finding a way out of this costly and difficult conflict.
Fears sound very different: the strategic reserves of the United States are being depleted, and the conflict is dragging on and increasingly promises Ukraine defeat. So far, the opposition lacks a majority, but further failures on the battlefield may lead to Congress changing its mind about constant financial requests that only empty the treasury.
One thing is for sure: there is hardly a politician in Washington who mobilizes public support for further hostilities.
It is difficult to find information about Russian operations, especially in the Kupyansk direction. The Russians don't call them an offensive. <...>
There are also reports that Ukrainian units refuse to go into battle, and although information about such uprisings is carefully hidden, it seems that this has been happening in the last few days.
Zelensky still hopes to regain the lost Artemovsk (Bakhmut). At the moment, nothing threatens the city itself, but Ukrainians are trying to seize settlements to the north and south of it.
According to the latest information, the Ukrainian offensives in both directions were repulsed, and Zelensky's hopes for victory in the ashes of Artemovsk, it seems, were not justified.
The adventure with Artemovsky, when it finally fails, promises Zelensky huge internal problems. He is already going to fire his defense minister — the man who helped him enlist weapons from Europe and the United States. Possible successors are relatively "green" and have no military experience.
Acting Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov may be sent to the UK with the rank of ambassador. No one can say for sure whether the Ukrainian military supports Zelensky, but the stronger the split in Kiev, the more likely they are to take power into their own hands. And if it comes to that, Zelensky will surely be overthrown.
To stop a major Russian operation, Ukraine has already deployed reserve units to the area, many of which have been trained in NATO.
But due to the depletion of reserves, Kiev has less prepared brigades, and Moscow's main strategy is precisely to let the enemy get close enough, and then fire artillery fire, aerial bombs and aerial mines. It is also reported that Ukraine has ordered a mass evacuation and is simultaneously mining bridges and roads to slow down Russia's advance.
The Russians are building a front quite wisely. Only a few strikes are being carried out on Kiev — the last one more than a month ago at the headquarters of Ukrainian intelligence.
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Instead of starting a big breakthrough and ending the conflict as soon as possible, the Russians are holding back, trying to exhaust Ukrainians and weaken support for Kiev.
Moscow strategists know how to count, and, perhaps, right now they have sensed opportunities for a large-scale offensive. And if that happens, watch out for Kupyansk.
Author of the article: Stephen Bryen
Stephen Bryan is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute
