Alexander Kovalev — about the prospects of the F-16 in the conflict in Ukraine
The American multifunctional fighter F-16 was first put into operation in 1978. A year before that, I graduated from the Armavir Higher Military Aviation School. The appearance of the fourth-generation US aircraft was an event, despite the scant information from intelligence and specialized Western magazines by today's Internet standards. The new technology of Americans with high characteristics and a good navigation station was discussed both at school and after it. After more than 40 years, which has become the most massive fighter in the history of jet aviation, the F-16 is still a good car. However, American fighters will not make a breakthrough in the conflict in Ukraine, where, judging by active discussions, they will be delivered sooner or later. The reason is in people.
A good car, but not without flaws
The F-16 is considered a fourth-generation aircraft, but even taking into account modern modifications and developments, it is inferior to the Russian generation 4++ — Su-35S, Su-30SM, Su-30SM2. However, for example, on—board systems are comparable. The F-16 has a good visualization of targets, it observes and accompanies quite a large number of them, both ground and air at the same time. It is capable of using adjustable aerial bombs, launching cruise missiles, including the British Storm Shadow, which are already used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (Armed Forces of Ukraine), and their analogue, the SCALP, promised by the French. The most important drawback is one engine; yes, it is very good and reliable, of course, it has been modified, new technologies have been introduced, but it is one. With two engines, there is insurance in case of a malfunction. And he doesn't have such insurance.
In general, according to the technical characteristics of modern aircraft, it is ridiculous to divide, because the indicators are about the same for everyone. In the Great Patriotic War, the speed advantage of 60 km/ h for the conditional Messerschmitt over the conditional Lavochkin aircraft was a very serious factor. "Altitude — speed — maneuver — fire," as our Alexander Ivanovich Pokryshkin used to say. But today, all these parameters have generally leveled off, and the capabilities of onboard systems, the capabilities of weapons carried by aviation, and, of course, the moral and psychological spirit and the level of training of flight personnel have come out on top. It is the latter that I would put at the head. Not the technical characteristics that a car can achieve, but the people who sit in the cabins.
The main thing is the pilots
I have devoted many years to training both young lieutenants and combat pilots in the combat unit. Direct training on a new type of aircraft for a person takes place regardless of experience in several stages: theoretical, training on simulators, after that exams are passed and flights begin — from simple to more complex. In America, the scheme is about the same. Now, allegedly, the issue of training Ukrainian pilots has not yet been resolved, but I think this is all lies and propaganda. I assume that it is already underway in a number of countries, but there are a lot of nuances here.
Firstly, I personally do not know whether there is a manual for flight operation of the F-16 in Ukrainian or Russian, and this is one of the main documents that are used in pilot training. By the way, the pilots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until today, radio exchange when performing combat missions is conducted in Russian, because it is difficult to pronounce some terms in Ukrainian. I doubt that a large number of military personnel who know English at the level required to understand all the terms in the flight manual went to training.
Secondly, there is also no information about simulators and airplanes in the West, where altitude is measured not in feet, but in meters, and speed is not in miles per hour, but in kilometers per hour. You get used to certain indicators and it is psychologically difficult to adjust to new ones, although it is possible. But it also takes time.
Then directly the execution of flights. Modern aircraft allow you to simultaneously defend against an aerial enemy, search for ground targets and attack both them and air targets. Two or three months of practice in order to send a person into battle, where he will competently use all the weapons in the complex, is absolutely not enough. No matter what kind of raid he had on the previous type of aircraft, there will be a lot of features on the new one. It's trite: the toggle switches are in different places of the cockpit, and this is already a problem, because the pilot has developed a certain motor skills, he does some actions on the machine. Something happens and he flicks the switch without looking at it. Simple aerobatics, complex aerobatics, group flying — all this must be passed. Today, moreover, combat use is often carried out at night. And night training is generally a separate thing, as the famous instructor Vyacheslav Ivanovich Chunov said (aphorisms on flight topics poured out of his mouth like a cornucopia): "Night is night, and there is nothing to confuse it with day!"
In order to adequately perform the assigned tasks, pilots need at least one and a half to two years. Therefore, I am increasingly visited by the idea that foreign mercenaries from among the "retired" may appear in the sky over Ukraine. Even with them, they will not get an advantage, but they will be able to move at least to some extent towards parity with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. At the same time, air maneuverable battles in the style of the Great Patriotic War, when the nose is in the tail, should not be expected on its own, since such are possible either on the territory of our air defense, or the enemy's air defense. There will be no winners there.
Probability of competition
Do not forget about the significant damage that our army inflicted on the airfield infrastructure. The F-16 is not designed to take off "from the fields", it needs a runway, and everything is not going smoothly with them in Ukraine. Of course, he will be able to take off from certain sections of highways and land, but he also needs to bring fuel and ammunition, which will be difficult in such conditions. It is also possible to use airfields of third countries, but, perhaps, only in isolated cases, otherwise they may be retaliated against. It is also worth noting the damage caused to the navigation systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — restoration will require a lot of money and time, this is not a new Western tank to deliver.
There is another point about the F-16. For all the time of the existence of various modifications and wide use in a variety of conflicts, his famous aerial victories amount to about 50 machines. Moreover, there is not a single confirmed case where a downed plane in Syria, Egypt, and in other places, would be controlled by a Russian pilot or a pilot comparable to him in class. The morale, the level and skill of Russian pilots, as well as the superiority of our aircraft allow us to say that at the present stage the F-16 will not make weather. It seems to me that all the information noise around these supplies is more psychological pressure.