Colonel Khodarenok: Kiev will not be able to destroy the ships of the Black Sea Fleet
Russia may not have ships left in the Black Sea by the end of hostilities if it continues to block the water area and the grain deal, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said. Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok was looking into whether Kiev could put its threats into practice and whether the Russian fleet was ready to repel new attacks.
The President of Ukraine recalled the suspension of Russia's participation in the grain deal, according to which the safety of grain ships leaving Ukrainian ports was guaranteed. Therefore, Ukraine needs to prove that it has the right to export products through its territorial waters, Vladimir Zelensky believes. "If there is a blockade, Ukraine must find a way to end the blockade of our waters," he said in an interview with La Nacion.
According to Vladimir Zelensky, if Russia continues to block the water area and strike, then "Ukraine will do the same." "If they keep shooting, we don't have many weapons, but if they keep shooting, then by the end of the war they may be left without ships," the President of Ukraine said.
Small losses
To begin with, let's focus on the losses suffered by the Russian Black Sea Fleet during a special military operation. As for the large displacement ships, on March 24, 2022, the large landing ship of Project 1171 Saratov, which was in the port of Berdyansk, was flooded by the crew due to the outbreak of a fire in order to prevent the detonation of ammunition on board. On July 2, 2022, the ship was lifted and sent to Kerch for repairs.
On April 13, 2022, a fire broke out on the missile cruiser "Moscow", as a result of which ammunition detonated, presumably batteries of AK-630 artillery installations on the left side. The ship was taken in tow, but in the conditions of the commotion at sea, the cruiser, which had a roll of about 15 degrees, lost stability and capsized to port. There is no reason to take the versions about the alleged sinking of the cruiser by anti-ship missiles seriously. There are no traces of anti-ship missile hits on all known photographs of the "Moscow".
On August 4, 2023, a large amphibious ship of Project 775 "Olenegorsky Miner" was damaged by an unmanned boat of the Navy in the Novorossiysk raid.
In addition, during the conflict, the Black Sea Fleet lost several boats.
As for the Ukrainian Navy, for various reasons they have lost almost all the most modern warships, as well as their flagship. As an organized combat force of the Navy, they ceased to exist.
Surface threat
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy threatens - "Russia may not have ships left in the Black Sea by the end of hostilities." In this regard, it should be recalled that many things have already been stated in Kiev. And that already in May of this year, the Ukrainian military and politicians will drink coffee on the Yalta embankment, and that during the summer campaign, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go to the coast of the Sea of Azov, and that Russia is about to run out of missiles. So far, none of the previously announced has come true. And in general, in the course of conducting an armed struggle, one should always refrain from making any loud statements. After all, it is still unknown how the situation may develop.
However, as the newspaper wrote earlier.En", unmanned boats are by no means any kind of superweapon at sea and they are unlikely to make a difference in the course of their own. Cases of their successful use are mostly explained by the carelessness of individual officials, rather than by the really high combat characteristics of this type of weapon.
The disadvantage of any unmanned boat is the surface part of a very considerable geometric dimensions. For these reasons, it can be detected on the sea surface by radar stations (including those equipped with an optical channel). Among other things, a marine drone, even at relatively long ranges, is easily detected by visual observation posts.
"Easily struck by fire"
By definition, there is no armor protection of vital units on ships of this type. Therefore, unmanned boats are easily struck by the fire of small-gun weapons. For example, large-caliber machine guns of 12.7 and 14.5 mm caliber, as well as naval artillery installations AK-630 of 30 mm caliber with one six-barrel rotating gun. At the same time, as a rule, there is a detonation of the combat part, which literally blows the drone to pieces.
Among other things, the control of an unmanned boat can be paralyzed by means of electronic warfare. The marine drone is guided by the operator using radio commands. A satellite signal is used to solve navigation problems. Therefore, the staging of organized interference is quite possible.
Finally, traditional and long-known boom barriers and sea mines can be used to combat unmanned boats. And these funds will clearly be among the most effective. Therefore, it is not worth considering unmanned boats as some kind of invulnerable superweapon at sea. And even more so to declare the end of the era of surface ships, which some representatives of the expert community hastened to do.
Apparently, in the near future it is necessary to strengthen the ships and boats of the Black Sea Fleet with searchlights, at first limit their crossings at night, cover ships and boats with bonoset barriers at anchorages in bases. As for the passage of unarmed tankers and bulk carriers by sea, it is quite possible that it is advisable to recall and implement the convoy system in practice.
Finally, it is necessary to systematically launch air and missile strikes at the assembly sites of unmanned boats on the territory of Ukraine, the bases and control points of these watercraft, as well as to hit them from sea directions. And only in this way will the problem of safe passage by sea be solved.
Mikhail Khodarenok
