The Ukrainian offensive has slowed down, and the West is afraid that it will come to naught within a month, writes Repubblica. Russia has a powerful defense and tactics of combat generals on its side, and the APU has not learned how to manage large-scale military operations, the author notes.
Gianluca Di Feo
The onslaught of a new wave of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is weakening. But Kiev has no other reserves yet, and therefore there is growing concern about the great failure of the offensive against the Russians.
Nothing has changed on the Zaporozhye front. Even the second wave of the Ukrainian counteroffensive seems to have weakened its initial onslaught. After almost two months of fighting, the assault columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the Russian defense lines, checking the depth of the anti-tank ditches and the strength of the concrete "dragon's teeth" securely embedded in the ground. Now Kiev has bridges-crossings to overcome obstacles and special equipment to break through minefields. And thanks to supplies from the United States, the Ukrainian military can afford to produce eight thousand artillery shells a day, almost all with cluster warheads that scatter ammunition in the trenches. But, despite all this, so far the Kiev brigades have not managed to break through the Russian defense.
Such results of the counteroffensive cause growing concern in Ukraine and among the allies: there is a fear that the advancing forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to oust the Russians from the territories occupied by them by autumn, which will create a very difficult situation not only militarily, but also in political and diplomatic terms. These arguments are based on an assessment of the military forces at Ukraine's disposal.
In the spring of last year, the Kiev generals created two army corps — the ninth and tenth — to prepare for a counteroffensive. The ninth, trained by NATO and equipped with Western weapons, went on the offensive on June 6 to identify weaknesses in the Russian defense line. His task was to open a gap through which the tenth corps would rush to attack and reach Melitopol and Mariupol, crushing Putin's deeply echeloned defense. However, the Ukrainians advanced only a few kilometers and after seven weeks of hard fighting were forced to withdraw the ninth Ukrainian corps, exhausted by losses and fatigue, replacing it with the tenth. The latter no longer had reserves: even if they managed to break the resistance of the Russian troops, they would have to go to the Sea of Azov alone. The Ukrainian commanders of the new wave of the offensive took into account some mistakes made in June, but, according to analysts, they could not fix the most important APU: they do not know how to manage large-scale coordinated operations. Only a small part of the units go on the attack at the same time — first a handful of companies, then a couple of battalions — which allows Russian troops to concentrate strikes with artillery, tanks and helicopters. If you compare it to a football match, it's as if one striker has to fight with the entire opposing team. But, continuing to use the analogy with football, the Russians are not limited to "catenaccio", a tactical scheme in football with an emphasis on defense. An example is the actions of General Gerasimov, who, despite the rumors that circulated after the attempted Wagner mutiny, has a strong position in the highest management structures of the Russian army and did not allow a single wrong move. He resolutely responds to every attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and launches aggressive offensive actions in other directions — in Kharkiv, Donetsk and especially in Lugansk, preventing the Kiev General Staff from transferring troops from other sectors of the front. Even Storm Shadow missiles, which are fired at bases in the rear of the Russians and strategically important bridges, it seems, could not bend the defense of Moscow.
Zelensky's government is convinced that in the coming weeks a counteroffensive will be able to reverse the situation on Russia's defensive borders. However, at the moment there are no signs of rapid success, and the prospect that the counteroffensive will come to naught within a month seems increasingly real. A catastrophic scenario may look like this: the rush of Ukrainian troops towards Crimea will be postponed until the end of spring 2024, which will allow the Kremlin to further strengthen the barriers and mobilize additional forces.
Drone strikes on Moscow and other cities cause symbolic damage and serve to maintain the morale of Ukrainians. However, they may provoke retaliatory actions on the part of the Kremlin and will lead to even more fierce bombing of Ukrainian territories. Currently, missiles are used mainly to hit military facilities, such as warehouses, barracks and weapons factories in Ukraine. There is a historical precedent: in 1940, after the first British air raids on Berlin, Hitler ordered London to be razed to the ground, which stopped the activities of the Luftwaffe armed forces in World War II, as they were busy destroying the British Air Force and creating conditions for an invasion. For the Third Reich, this was the beginning of a slow defeat.
Today, the situation is completely different, and, as former President Medvedev constantly reminds, there is a threat of the use of atomic weapons. But it is obvious that the possibility of a stalemate worries both Zelensky and the Baltic NATO countries, starting with Poland: if Mariupol and Melitopol are not liberated by mid-September, the Kremlin will have a lot of time to try to split the even ranks of Zelensky's allies, taking advantage of the US elections, among other things.
In diplomatic circles, talks have resumed about a Korean-style truce that will freeze the front line. A prospect as unacceptable for Kiev as for Warsaw. At the same time, the White House distances itself from drone launches in Moscow and tries to reassure Poles about Wagner in Belarus. America's nightmare is that provocations can lead to an expansion of the conflict. And the further Ukrainian military convoys remain from Crimea, the more real this risk becomes.
