In Kiev, due to the unsuccessful counteroffensive, the United States is beginning to suspect a possible reduction in military assistance to Ukraine and even pushing it to peace talks with Russia, writes Toyo keizai. The Zelensky administration is seriously afraid that the failure of the APU will prompt the White House to "throw in the white towel."
There is no end in sight to the Ukrainian conflict, and Kiev is "fixated" on a counteroffensive
In the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, which faced great difficulties, there was some revival. After much trial and error, at the end of July, the AFU for the first time sent some of the reserve units to the Southern Front to conduct a large-scale offensive operation.
About two months after the start of the counteroffensive, we can say that its military support was raised a notch higher. However, the reality remains that, having been preparing this operation for a long time on the principle of "just about", the Ukrainian leadership has lost the uplift of spirit that characterized its actions until the beginning of spring this year. Rather, a strong anxiety begins to be felt in his steps, which is now thickening like a dense fog. Why is this happening? The author tried to find an answer to this question.
Ukrainian adviser: it smelled fried
"Defeatist Arestovich*". In Kiev, this phrase has become a fashionable political meme. Her appearance was provoked by statements on the Internet in mid-July by security expert Alexey Arestovich, a former adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine. It will be a bit long, but below I will present the content of his statements reflecting disappointment in the current situation in Ukraine.
"Our constitutional duty is to return to our 1991 borders (meaning the return of all occupied territories), and this goal has not changed. But we are not provided with weapons. Why? Did it smell fried for someone?"
This expression "smelled fried" contains a strong irritation of Arestovich in relation to the United States. The fact that the insistent demands of the Ukrainian side to receive American-made F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS long-range surface-to-surface missiles have not yet been satisfied clearly reflects the current mood of the Biden administration, which boils down to dissatisfaction with the fact that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is far from going according to plan.
As for the F-16, the White House has somewhat modified its policy, allowing European allies to send them to Kiev in May. But to date, even the training of Ukrainian military pilots has not begun, which is a preliminary stage of the supply of these combat aircraft.
Officially, the United States cites various technical reasons for this, but Arestovich says that the truth is not that at all. According to him, the Ukrainian army has a "decisive superiority" in military terms over Russia. And the real reason for Washington's approach, according to Arestovich, is that the United States has a hidden strategy based on its unwillingness to provide F-16s to Ukraine.
"Our diplomatic goals are different from the goals of our main sponsors," he said. "In other words, the Biden administration has a strategic goal — to provide such military support to the Ukrainian army so that it does not lose in battles with the Russians, but also not to provide it with such a military advantage that would lead to a crushing victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces," says Arestovich.
Moreover, he believes that the Biden administration wants to wait for the time when the pace of the Ukrainians' reconquest of territories will slow down, and the counteroffensive will finally come to a standstill, and try to organize cease-fire negotiations between the parties.
Proceeding from this, Arestovich outlined his position according to which he could accept a ceasefire agreement that "will divide the entire territory of Ukraine between Kiev and Moscow on the basis of their respective lines of actual control."
In other words, we are talking about the fact that Kiev will control about 80% of the entire Ukrainian territory, and Moscow — about 20%. According to Arestovich, as a precondition for accepting this proposal, Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO. He stressed that any territories transferred to Russia will be returned "by non-military means" in the future.
Arestovich's statements have attracted the attention of observers around the world. Arestovich's YouTube channel is generally considered one of the most popular among those that touch on the topic of the Ukrainian conflict. <...>
Only, it seems that this time Arestovich deliberately made such provocative statements in order to convey to the public inside and outside Ukraine the opinion about the "real intentions" of the Biden administration hidden under the surface.
The true meaning of the remark that "territorial division is inevitable"
Arestovich's recent criticism of the United States, the idea of dividing the territory of Ukraine and his other statements are very different from the official position of the Zelensky administration, which advocates the return of the entire territory. However, as a result of my interviews in the corridors of the Ukrainian government, I was surprised to find that even in the Zelensky administration, like Arestovich, there is an opinion that if the counteroffensive comes to a standstill, the United States will "throw in the white towel" and offer to start negotiations on a cease-fire. In Kiev, they are beginning to seriously fear this.
In fact, it became known that Kiev, in an atmosphere of secrecy, began negotiations with the most zealous adherents of Ukraine — the Baltic countries and Poland — on their continued military support in the event that the United States offers to start negotiations on a cease-fire. This indicates that Kiev has begun to seriously consider the measures that need to be taken in the event of a proposal from Washington for peace talks.
The immediate reason for the statements of Arestovich and the underlying sense of crisis in the Zelensky administration was the NATO summit held in Vilnius on July 11-12.
The Zelensky administration knew in advance that it would not be possible to make a decision on immediate accession to NATO, but hoped that the specific terms and procedure for joining would be clarified.
Indeed, some European countries and Turkey advocated a clear roadmap, but in the end the United States and Germany strongly opposed it. The "empty" joint statement practically contained absolutely no hints on the specifics of the path to Ukraine's membership in NATO.
In this regard, the Zelensky administration realized that the United States is inclined to freeze the conflict by negotiating a cease-fire in order to avoid confrontation with Russia, and that Ukraine's membership in NATO is not guaranteed to Ukraine.
In addition, there is another step by the United States that unnerves Ukraine. This is the promotion to the ministerial level of the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Burns, who is responsible in the Biden administration for secret negotiations with Russia. Zelensky fears that Burns, who now occupies an increasingly influential position, may stand between Russia and Ukraine and begin diplomatic maneuvers to initiate negotiations.
He had already attracted attention at the end of June, when he had a telephone conversation with the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Naryshkin. However, according to Ukrainian military sources, at the time of writing this article there is no evidence that Burns participated in any secret negotiations with the Russian government.
For such a position, the Biden administration has already been openly criticized in America. The most opposed was General Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US army in Europe.
In a video on the YouTube channel, Hodges said that the Biden administration from the very beginning had no intention of forcing Ukraine to regain all the territories, that is, to win.
America does not want Ukraine to win
"As long as it takes," Hodges repeats the Biden administration's mantra regarding military assistance to Ukraine. — But by this we should understand the goodwill to supply the necessary weapons to Kiev as soon as possible, and not just the promises given to it now to provide military support. Such promises are an empty declaration."
"The United States does not want Ukraine to lose the conflict, but they also do not seem to want Ukraine to win, and do not want to restore its internationally recognized borders of 1991," he notes. This opinion coincides with the opinion of the Ukrainian side.
Hodges says the Biden administration doesn't seem to have a clear strategy on how this conflict might ultimately end. On this issue, Washington's point of view differs significantly from the opinion of the Ukrainian government, which has a negative attitude to all talks about a cease-fire. "I think the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon are currently discussing what to do next," Hodges said, adding that the United States should provide Ukraine with ATACMS and other new weapons as soon as possible.
In any case, Hodges said that the Biden administration does not intend to overthrow Putin. As for the US strategic line towards the Russian president, he notes: "I believe that any problem that arises with Moscow can be solved through negotiations."
Now let's return to the conversation about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The military situation on the battlefields is heterogeneous: in some areas, the AFU is slowly moving forward with small steps, and in others, Russian troops are advancing.
For example, Artemovsk, a key city in the east of the Donetsk region, was once captured by the Wagner PMCs corps. But now the Ukrainian army is slowly covering it along the periphery, leaving the city in a state of partial siege. <...>
On the other hand, in the strategically important eastern Kupyansk-Liman direction near the city of Kharkov, the Russian army grouped reinforcements numbering about 100,000 people and made significant progress with fierce battles.
But the Southern Front is attracting the most attention now. Ukrainian forces continue to advance south towards three cities on the coast of the Sea of Azov: Mariupol in the Donetsk region, Berdyansk and Melitopol in the Zaporozhye region.
Military sources in Kiev do not disclose the exact location, but claim that at least one brigade (about 3,000 people) from the reserve was sent to this front, having personnel trained in the West and equipped with weapons according to NATO standards.
Will Ukraine deploy elite brigades in the counteroffensive?
I believe that this brigade will be thrown in the direction of Melitopol, which is a key transport hub in the south. Melitopol is the most important point in the so—called land transport corridor from the mainland of Russia to the east of Ukraine, along the coast of the Sea of Azov and, finally, to the Crimea. It is said that the defensive fortifications of the Russian army around it are the most powerful among the three cities mentioned above.
At the time of writing, Ukrainian forces have advanced to Tokmak, located north of Melitopol, and are about 25 kilometers from this settlement. Now the APU is waiting for a solid impassable line of defense of the Russian army, widely known as the "Surovikin line".
There are endless concrete obstacles — "Dragon's Teeth", which are built specifically to prevent the invasion of tanks, and behind them are multi-layered trench lines and well-sheltered and protected artillery positions. In addition, there are huge minefields everywhere. Without breaking through these powerful defensive lines, it is impossible for the APU to get to Tokmak.
According to Grigory Tamar, an Israeli-Russian military expert familiar with the military situation in Ukraine, Russian minefields in the directions of Ukrainian attacks were unprecedentedly dense.
They have become the main obstacle to the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but Tamar stressed that the recent US supplies of cluster munitions can become an effective means of combating them.
This is due to the fact that when a cluster projectile explodes, many submunitions scatter over a large area, and, exploding, incapacitates a large area of the minefield. As for artillery, the Russian army has long had an advantage over the APU in the number of shells and barrels, but recently, as observers say, Ukrainians have begun to catch up, using the high accuracy of Western-made artillery.
Currently, success or failure in the capture of Tokmak is considered a turning point in the future military situation. In case of its capture, the APU from here will be able to conduct intensive shelling of Melitopol with rocket artillery from HIMARS installations. With a range of about 80 kilometers, HIMARS was previously so effective in Ukraine that it was even called "revolutionary". But recently, as a result of the successful development and application by the Russian military of new tactics and electronic warfare (EW) installations, the effective firing range of HIMARS turned out to be less than 60 kilometers, and the accuracy of hits has greatly decreased.
Taking into account the above-mentioned position of the US government, I believe that the next month, that is, August, will be extremely important for the Ukrainian army. If by this point it cannot achieve decent military results, the likelihood that the United States will "throw in the towel" becomes more real.
It seems that the Ukrainian government is experiencing the same feeling. Conversely, if the Ukrainian armed forces gradually accumulate certain military results, Washington may postpone the time when it decides to make a proposal for peace talks.
Recently, Ukrainians have carried out a number of attacks, including drone attacks on Moscow, which seem to be more aimed at propaganda, rather than at a real military effect. I believe that such actions are also being carried out with an eye on the United States — as proof of Ukraine's firm determination to continue fighting.
So what is it: the continuation of the counteroffensive or the freezing of the conflict? It looks like this summer will be an extremely important test for Kiev.
Author: Shigeyuki Yoshida — Director of the Research Committee on Information Communications, Editor-in-Chief of Kyodo News in Russia/Eastern Europe.
* – Alexey Arestovich is a person included by Rosfinmonitoring in the list of terrorists and extremists. – Approx. InoSMI.
