How is the balance of power in Northeast Asia
The military-political situation in Northeast Asia (NEA) is characterized by instability due to the presence of serious contradictions in the objectives of the main states of the region. These countries include Russia, the United States, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
The situation is influenced by the global competition between China and the United States, historical and territorial contradictions between Beijing and Tokyo, Japan and the ROK. The most acute is the confrontation between Seoul and Pyongyang, which still do not have a peace treaty after the end of the Korean War in 1953.
Existing problems regularly put this region of the world on the brink of armed conflict. An example is the aggravation of inter–Korean relations in August 2015, after the explosion of two South Korean servicemen on anti-personnel mines in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) of the Korean peninsula and the subsequent artillery exchange on the border. The DPRK's nuclear tests in 2015-2022 were also accompanied by an increase in confrontation.
Such a situation forces the NEA states to pay considerable attention to military construction, the formation of powerful armies capable of ensuring superiority over the enemy in a traditional war. Considerable emphasis is placed on the development of missile capabilities, the creation and improvement of weapons of mass destruction, operations in cyberspace.
Under these conditions, it is necessary to regularly assess the likely scenarios of an armed conflict in the NEA and predict the possible results of such a collision. Currently, the prospect of Russia's participation in the armed conflict on the Korean peninsula is assessed as extremely unlikely. But experts do not often consider the development of the situation in the near and long term.
WHAT THE US IS STRIVING FOR
Washington's official military-political course in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) is based on five strategic pillars:
– strengthening friendly ties with allies;
– expansion of cooperation with developing countries;
– building constructive relations with China;
– strengthening of regional institutions;
– development of economic architecture.
This approach was enshrined in the Asian Political Initiative of President Barack Obama, declaring the provision of "stable, secure conditions and regional order in the Asia-Pacific region based on economic openness, peaceful resolution of conflicts and respect for universal human freedoms."
China's regional and global ambitions remain the main factor causing the expansion of Washington's presence in the region. Given the historical disunity of the Asia-Pacific countries, the White House is interested in preserving the conditions under which these states will develop stable ties with the United States, and not among themselves. This should preserve the American "stabilizing" influence and provide the United States with the opportunity to exert selective influence on the situation.
The main goal of US policy in Northeast Asia is to control the development of the military-political situation and prevent its aggravation, jeopardizing the interests of Washington and its allies. Special attention is paid to the strategic partnership with Japan and the Republic of Kazakhstan, the preservation of an advanced military presence, the development of infrastructure for the transfer of reinforcement troops if necessary, countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missile technologies.
In 2015-2023, the White House intensified consultations with Seoul and Tokyo. During contacts at all levels, Washington coordinated measures to increase cooperation in the military and military-technical fields, strengthen the positions of American manufacturers in local markets, and reduce economic dependence on Beijing. Special emphasis was placed on the development of trilateral cooperation between the USA-ROK-Japan to overcome the differences between Seoul and Tokyo and ensure their coordinated actions in the international arena.
A separate element of the US policy in the NEA is the preservation of the conflict potential on the Korean peninsula. Washington is interested in maintaining the "nuclear missile threat from Pyongyang", which gives a reason for the presence of a large group of American armed forces in the region.
In the United States, the main form of influence on the DPRK is considered a tough sanctions policy. Any actions to strengthen the confrontation on the Korean peninsula are supported. The White House's official assurances of readiness to defend the Republic of Korea by military means are accompanied by a demonstrative increase in the activity of American aircraft carrier forces, strategic bomber and reconnaissance aircraft near the North Korean borders.
Washington seeks to ensure maximum control over the ROK, to prevent Seoul's "excessive independence" and its conclusion of any agreements with Pyongyang without taking into account the American position. The United States is actively trying to involve Seoul in a campaign to force China to abandon its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Washington is increasing cooperation with the Republic of Kazakhstan in the energy, aerospace, and cybernetic fields, intensifying cooperation to counter international extremism and terrorism.
WHAT CHINA WANTS
China's policy in Northeast Asia is aimed at maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula and strengthening Beijing's military and economic influence in the region. The main factors determining the nature of the actions of the Chinese leadership in the NEA are the anti-Chinese policy of the United States and the unpredictability of Pyongyang's course.
Beijing, using its opportunities to influence the leadership of the DPRK, seeks to prevent Pyongyang's "ill-considered actions" in response to the military activities of the United States and the ROK to "intimidate" it.
Beijing proceeds from the fact that the foreign policy pursued by the North Korean leader does not fully meet the strategic interests of the PRC. The support of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is caused by the need to prevent an escalation on the Korean peninsula and at the same time is seen as an opportunity to strengthen its influence on Pyongyang's policy. At the same time, the Chinese leadership encourages North Koreans to carry out economic reforms and abandon destructive policies towards Washington and Seoul.
Beijing carries out active bilateral exchanges with Pyongyang through inter-party cooperation. In the development of trade and economic ties, Beijing's main efforts are focused on strengthening its positions and encouraging the DPRK to carry out economic reforms on the Chinese model. Beijing has sought to expand its access to North Korean raw materials and transport infrastructure facilities providing direct access to the coast of the Sea of Japan.
In general, Beijing's relations with Pyongyang are assessed by South Korean and American experts as cool. In their opinion, this is caused by the DPRK's regular violation of agreements on limiting nuclear and missile programs. For example, the test detonation of a munition called a hydrogen bomb by Pyongyang in January 2016 was an "unpleasant surprise" for Beijing, about which Pyongyang "forgot" to warn its Chinese partners.
The political ties between the PRC and the ROK are developing steadily. During contacts and consultations in 2015-2022, the parties confirmed agreements on strengthening strategic partnership and establishing bilateral dialogue mechanisms. Trade and economic cooperation has become an important factor. China is the leading trading partner of the Republic of Kazakhstan, accounting for more than 20% of South Korean trade turnover. In turn, the Republic of Kazakhstan is the sixth largest foreign trade counterparty of the PRC.
China pays serious attention to the development of regional cooperation in the Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral format, which is seen as a counterweight to American influence in the NEA.
WHAT IS JAPAN TRYING TO ACHIEVE
The military-political course of the Japanese leadership in the NEA is aimed at strengthening Tokyo's influence on regional processes and strengthening allied relations with the United States.
Tokyo's main focus is on creating new conceptual foundations for defense and security policy, deepening the Japanese-American strategic partnership, and expanding the functions of the national Self-Defense Forces to protect state interests.
In July 2014, the Japanese government decided to begin the procedure for lifting legislative restrictions on the use of Self-Defense Forces as part of coalition groups of troops (forces) without an immediate threat to Japan's security (the so-called "right to collective defense"). In January 2014, the National Security Council, the highest state body responsible for developing the main directions of foreign policy, military construction and emergency response, began its work.
A special place in Tokyo's policy is occupied by the attitude to nuclear weapons (NW). The Government declares its commitment to the observance of three "nuclear-free principles": not to produce, not to have and not to import nuclear weapons. At the same time, the discussion on the development of Japan's own nuclear potential continues.
Under the pretext of strengthening the nuclear missile threat in Asia, Japan is stepping up efforts to explore space for military purposes. The Ministry of Defense carries out scientific research and design work on the creation of artificial Earth satellites and the deployment of its own orbital grouping.
Japan's main foreign policy priority is to strengthen its alliance with Washington in order to guarantee national security. A new version of the Agreement "On the basic principles of Japanese-American cooperation in the field of defense" was signed in April 2015. The "traditional" list of tasks for ensuring Japan's security and responding to regional crises is expanding due to joint counteraction to threats and challenges in any parts of the world.
Priority attention is paid to missile defense, intelligence, security of maritime communications, peacekeeping, joint operational and combat training and logistical support of troops, assistance in building up the combat capabilities of the armed Forces of regional allies, monitoring compliance with economic sanctions imposed by the United States and Japan.
Cooperation in outer space and cyberspace has been identified as promising areas, including for the protection of orbital groupings, computer networks and information systems of the two countries.
Tokyo considers active participation in multilateral mechanisms of military-political cooperation in the formats Japan–USA–Australia and Japan–USA–Kazakhstan to be an important direction of foreign policy.
Japan's relations with China remain complicated. Tokyo has repeatedly stated about the negative impact of Beijing's military construction on maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region and the need for "retaliatory measures" to China's attempts to challenge "Japanese sovereignty" over the Senkaku Islands (East China Sea).
Tokyo's approaches to contacts with the DPRK are still uncompromising, allowing for the possibility of tightening sanctions against Pyongyang. The main requirements for the normalization of relations are the solution of the problem of Japanese citizens abducted in the 1970s and 1980s by North Korean special services, the complete curtailment of Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs.
Japan is consistently implementing plans to create multifunctional troops (forces) capable of responding to threats in any parts of the world. The main efforts are focused on increasing the combat capabilities of the Self-Defense Forces with a slight decrease in the number of personnel, the number of weapons and military equipment. Priority tasks: increasing the mobility of troops, the effectiveness of intelligence, improving the management system, modernization of weapons and military equipment.
In general, the military-political course of Japan is characterized by the desire to ensure the leading position of the APR country as an economic and military power.
We will tell about the military-political courses of Seoul and Pyongyang and possible scenarios of armed conflicts in Northeast Asia in the upcoming issues of HBO.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
