Alexey Zavrachaev — about the report of the Ministry of Defense of Japan and the reaction of neighboring countries to it
The main theme around which the narrative is built in the " White Paper " (the annual report of the Ministry of Defense of Japan) was the tightening of the security situation in the world and in the region around the island state to an unprecedented level after World War II. In this context, the situation in Ukraine, around Taiwan, as well as the deterioration of relations between the United States and China are mentioned. "The international community is facing the greatest post-war challenge and has entered a new era of crisis. It is increasingly difficult for him to unite to solve common tasks," the report states.
In the part devoted to relations with neighboring countries, the Japanese Defense Ministry tightened the wording on China, Russia and the DPRK and softened the content of the chapter on South Korea against the background of establishing interactions between the two countries and strengthening strategic cooperation in the Tokyo—Washington—Seoul link.
With regard to Russia, the Japanese Defense Ministry claims that it poses "the most serious and immediate threat to Europe." At the same time, China's foreign policy position and military activity are described as "an unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge." In addition, the document states that the DPRK is improving its missile and nuclear technologies, and the frequent tests pose "an even more serious threat to Tokyo than ever." These theses, according to the idea, apparently should emphasize the harsh situation around Japan and act as an explanation for the reasons for changing the country's defense policy and strengthening the counterattacking potential.
The White Paper emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the defense departments of Japan and South Korea. A number of other formulations of a positive nature also reflect the improvement in relations between the two countries after the administration of President Yun Seok-yong came to power in the Republic of Korea. Last year's report, on the contrary, was notable for referring to unresolved bilateral problems: for example, that South Korea unilaterally notified Japan of its intention to terminate the Intelligence Exchange Agreement (GSOMIA). This agreement has now been renewed.
As for the United States, Tokyo, as noted in the document, will continue to deepen cooperation with Washington in various fields, including space and cyberspace. According to the report, the parties are also stepping up cooperation in such areas as air and sea defense, countering submarines, intelligence and data collection. Thus, in my opinion, the "White Paper" outlines the opposition of two triangles: USA, Japan, South Korea and China, Russia, North Korea.
Reaction of neighboring countries
The new report of the Ministry of Defense of Japan has caused criticism (however, by tradition) of neighbors in the region, primarily China. In particular, the Chinese Foreign Ministry noted that Tokyo thus interferes in China's internal affairs and creates tension in the region. The official representative of the department, Mao Ning, accused Japan is accused of "deliberately distorting China's normal development of its national defense" and "deliberately exaggerating the so-called Chinese threat." In addition, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Tokyo is aggravating the situation in the Taiwan Strait with its rhetoric.
In turn, the Central Telegraph Agency of Korea (KCNA) published an article by Kim Sol Hwa, a researcher at the Institute for Japanese Affairs at the DPRK Foreign Ministry, with a critical assessment of the White Paper. It expresses the opinion that Japan is turning into a military power under the pretext of external threats. Kim Sol Hwa believes that Tokyo, despite the lessons of World War II, is once again embarking on the path of militarization, actively developing its military potential in cooperation with the United States.
In addition, after the publication of the report, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea summoned a representative of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul because of Tokyo's claims to the disputed Dokdo Islands (Takeshima). However, I think this step should not be regarded as a signal to aggravate the established relations between the two countries, since such protests over disputed territories are quite ordinary for Japan and South Korea and occur regularly. The general vector for the positive is still preserved.
Internal problems
At the same time, the current edition of the White Paper for the first time takes into account the new national security strategy adopted last year. This document, together with the national defense strategy and the defense potential development plan, consolidated the plan for the development of the counterattacking potential of the Self-Defense Forces with the possibility of striking the bases of a potential enemy in the event of an immediate threat. It also prescribes a decision to almost double defense spending and bring it to the level of 2% of GDP, following the example of NATO countries.
This topic resonated in Japanese society and caused a contradictory reaction, which, according to experts, may intensify as the planned plan is implemented. Thus, according to a survey by the Iomiuri newspaper conducted earlier this year, the majority of respondents — 63% — oppose raising any taxes in order to increase defense spending as part of the new national security strategy. Only 28% of participants in the public opinion survey supported the initiative of the Fumio Kishida government.
A survey by the Kyodo agency revealed a request from the population — 77% — to hold early parliamentary elections before the tax reform. The fact is that the current plan of the authorities involves raising rates on income tax, corporate income tax and excise taxes on tobacco products. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party stated that the reform would begin in 2024, but today the majority of deputies are inclined to decide to move these deadlines to 2025 or later. Financing of the defense budget in 2027 is expected to reach the level of 8.9 trillion yen ($64.8 billion). Now these costs amount to about 5.37 trillion yen ($39 billion). Part of the allocation will be used to increase the range of Type 12 missiles available to Japan, purchase American Tomahawk cruise missiles and develop its own hypersonic weapons.
Taking into account the record price growth in 2022 and 2023, which occurred in Japan against the backdrop of the still ongoing economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, the situation in Ukraine and the increase in the cost of energy resources, it is obvious that the Japanese public will continue to closely monitor the possible increase in taxes and the impact of the authorities' initiative on the level of well-being.
Meanwhile, the level of disapproval of the actions of the Japanese government, according to the Iomiuri survey, rose by 8 percentage points (pp) in July and reached 52%. This is the maximum figure for the entire time Kishida was in power. Such negative data postpone the prospects of holding early elections, which, from the point of view of the authorities, are necessary for the implementation of the points of the national security strategy.
Regional perspectives
Japan's desire to increase its defense and counterattack capabilities, reflected in the new White Paper, together with the reaction of its neighbors in the region and their current defense policy creates a kind of contradictory trend. If one country increases its military power based on considerations of increasing its own security, then this may be a signal for other countries to take the same steps, which, in turn, again reduces the security of the first country.
Thus, without diplomatic efforts, it will be impossible to avoid a kind of arms race. Similar steps on the foreign policy front are clearly visible between Japan and South Korea. Also in May of this year, after a long period of coordination, the line for emergency communication between the military of Japan and China began to work. This was the result of a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bangkok on the sidelines of the APEC summit last year. However, additional efforts and continuous work are needed to further strengthen understanding between the parties. Otherwise, the division into opposing triangles will continue further.
