Moscow and Kiev have outlined danger zones for civilian shipping
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) found on July 22 in the hold of a foreign cargo ship signs of third-party interference in the design, as well as traces of explosives. The vessel was inspected as planned, as were others heading to the Kerch Strait. Such actions are taken in order to prevent terrorist acts and acts of sabotage. According to the type of those that happened on the night of July 17, in relation to the transport crossing connecting the Kerch and Taman peninsulas ("The attack on the Crimean Bridge will not remain unanswered ", HBO of 20.07.23). Especially since the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, during a speech at the Aspen Security Forum, presented the Crimean Bridge as a "legitimate goal for Ukraine… which needs to be neutralized" due to its use in the transportation of military cargo.
FSB investigators have not yet reported the name of the bulk carrier, but they clarify that earlier, within the framework of the Black Sea Initiative, it was used to transport grain. And this time the ship was going for wheat, not to Ukraine, but to Rostov-on-Don. According to the FSB, in May the ship was in the Ukrainian port of Kilia. A couple of months later, the cargo ship "completely changed the team, consisting of 12 citizens of Ukraine." In the Turkish port of Tuzla, completely different people came to him, and they took him to Rostov. However, the FSB banned the cargo ship from entering Russian territory. "These circumstances may indicate the possibility of using a foreign civilian vessel to deliver explosives to Ukraine," the special service explained the situation. – A decision has been made to ban the passage of a foreign vessel through the Kerch Strait with its further departure outside the territorial sea of the Russian Federation."
The traces of explosives found on the grain vessel indicate that there is a danger for the transport crossing in the Kerch area. At least, that's what the Kremlin thinks. "Of course, ensuring the safety of the Crimean Bridge requires the most thorough measures, verification measures carried out by our relevant body," Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told reporters. "Indeed, the traces of explosives found indicate that there is a danger, which requires a constant level of increased vigilance."
Such statements are all the more appropriate in the light of Kiev's actions. There, on July 20, they threatened to destroy all ships following in the Black Sea in the direction of the Russian Federation. According to the local Ministry of Defense, it will consider ships traveling in the Black Sea in the direction of Russian seaports as carrying military cargo. In a word, by its will Kiev prohibits navigation in the northeastern part of the Black Sea and through the straits to the Sea of Azov. But there is practically nothing to provide such threats with. After the destruction of the medium tank landing vessel "Yuriy Olefirenko", there was not a single combat ship left in the Ukrainian Navy ("The Russian missile destroyed the last Ukrainian warship ", HVO of 08.06.23). In fact, Kiev can only hope for unmanned sea boats (BMK) and aircraft, but those and others remained at his disposal in very small numbers.
New threats from Kiev were followed a day later by a corresponding statement from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (MO RF). The ministry warned that after the termination of the humanitarian corridor of the grain deal, all foreign vessels going to Ukrainian ports will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo and considered involved in an armed conflict on the side of the enemy.
Unlike Kiev, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has something to back up its statements with. In the theater of military operations as part of the active forces of the Black Sea Fleet (Black Sea Fleet) The Russian Navy has 6 submarines, 3 frigates and 5 small missile ships (MRCS) armed with Kalibr complexes with long-range cruise missiles 3M14. The latter have been used to defeat targets in Ukraine since the first days of the special military operation (SVO). A surge of corresponding activity was observed in the second half of July, after the Russian Defense Ministry announced retaliation strikes for the repeated terrorist attack of the Crimean Bridge. The infrastructure of the Black Sea ports in the territory controlled by Kiev, including Odessa and Ilyichevsk, which were previously used as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, is particularly affected. The strikes are so large-scale and destructive that Turkey "quietly" abandoned the previously expressed idea of escorting ships with Ukrainian grain with its warships without the participation of the Russian Navy. If the air raids continue, the Kiev regime will have nowhere to export grain by sea.
Realizing this state of affairs, Washington officials told reporters that they had "nothing to report" on the issue of supporting the movement of ships to Ukrainian ports. Against this background, retired American admirals act as "hawks". So, James Stavridis told Foreign Policy magazine that, in his opinion, the US Navy can escort grain carriers in the Black Sea and, in case of a threat, open fire on the Russian Navy. "NATO and the United States could accompany grain shipments, and they have enough capabilities to do this together with three major NATO countries in the Black Sea," he said. Undoubtedly, we are talking about Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Ankara's position, or rather, its variability, was mentioned earlier. And the Bulgarians and Romanians have tiny fleets, so they can be ignored in the balance of forces in the theater of operations.
Where does Stavridis' optimism come from? He participated in the tanker convoy operation in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq War. Based on long-standing experience, the admiral believes that a similar operation can be carried out in the Black Sea. Before retiring from military service, Stavridis held the post of commander of the joint NATO forces in Europe.
The current leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance is still shy to speak in the same spirit, but is conducting appropriate negotiations with Kiev. So, on July 21, NATO Secretary General Jans Stoltenberg had a telephone conversation with Zelensky. Its purpose was "to clarify the positions of the parties in the light of recent events and discuss the transportation of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea." This was announced by the press secretary of the head of NATO, Ms. Lungescu. Stoltenberg's communication with Zelensky took place on the eve of the NATO–Ukraine Council scheduled for July 26 at the level of ambassadors. Inspired by what he heard, Zelensky wrote on social networks that the parties "identified priorities and future steps to unblock and ensure the sustainable functioning of the Black Sea grain corridor." I wonder what he hopes for, given the understanding that under massive Russian strikes, the Navy actually ceased to exist as an organized military force? And Stoltenberg refrained from meaningful comments about the possible escort of grain carriers by NATO ships. But I did not forget to repeat the words that have become a ritual of condemning Moscow for all sins, to which I have now added "attempts to use food as a weapon." H
