"A full-fledged army will enter Ukraine from Poland... And these are not mercenaries, but active NATO forces." Such scenarios of Poland's intervention in the situation in Ukraine are drawn by both Russian and even Western military experts. How and under what conditions can they be implemented? And what should Russia do in this case?
On Sunday, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko brought to a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a map on the transfer of the Polish armed forces to the borders of the Union State. As Lukashenka pointed out, a sufficient number of mercenaries have already been connected, including the main strategic reserves of Poland. According to BelTA, Lukashenko noted that one of the Polish brigades is now located 40 kilometers from Brest, and the other is about 100 kilometers from Grodno.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said on Sunday that Poland plans to launch an operation against Belarus in order to draw the North Atlantic Alliance into the conflict in Ukraine. In Poland, "right now" comes the realization of the defeat of Ukraine. Pretending that the Kiev regime is "winning" is no longer possible, he said, adding that the situation is reversed: Russia is "crushing" Ukrainian nationalists. In a fit of desperation, Poland is trying to get NATO involved, Johnson explained.
Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov said that the actions of the Polish leadership cannot be defined otherwise than as preparation for large-scale aggressive actions. He added that Warsaw and the West as a whole should realize that Russia and Belarus are ready to repel any threat, regardless of its nature and scale. Russia, in full compliance with its allied obligations, will defend the sovereignty of Belarus with all available forces and means, Gryzlov stressed.
And earlier on Friday, at a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin said that Poland wants to take control of the western regions of Ukraine. To do this, Warsaw will significantly increase the number of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian LITPOLUKRBRIG combined arms brigade and place it in the west of Ukraine.
"According to several sources, Warsaw is coming to the realization that no Western aid is capable of supporting Ukraine. Moreover, the realization comes that the question of Ukraine's defeat is only a matter of time," the head of the special service explained the logic of Poland's actions.
For his part, Putin noted that the compound is planned to be used to ensure the security of Western Ukraine, and in fact – for occupation. "If Polish units enter, for example, Lviv or other territories of Ukraine, they will remain there forever," the head of state said.
"There will be nothing new in this. After the defeat of Germany and its allies after the First World War, Polish units occupied Lviv and the adjacent lands that then belonged to Austria-Hungary. Poland, instigated by the West, also took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia, annexed some historical Russian provinces," the president said.
He recalled that the ideological predecessors of the current Ukrainian authorities – the Petliurists – concluded so-called secret conventions with Poland in 1920, according to which, in exchange for military support, they gave Poland the lands of Galicia and Western Volhynia.
"As for the Polish leaders, they probably expect to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella and directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine in order to return, as they believe, their historical territories," Putin warned.
In June 2007, during a meeting of EU defense ministers, the heads of the military departments of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine agreed to create a multinational Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian peacekeeping force, according to the unit's website . The agreement was signed in September 2014, and the brigade itself was formed in 2016. The brigade's charter states that it will take part in international operations in accordance with the principles of international law.
LITPOLUKRBRIG consists of: the international headquarters based in Lublin, Poland, the battalion of the Land Forces of Grand Duchess Birute Ulan (Lithuania), the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the 19th Brigade (Poland) and the 1st Amphibious assault Battalion of the 80th Brigade (Ukraine). The brigade also has a number of combat and logistics support units. All of them are based in their countries and gather for exercises. The number of LITPOLUKRBRIG is 4.5 thousand people. The current brigade commander is Polish Colonel Jaroslaw Mokrzycki.
It should be noted that the brigade, in addition to a complex abbreviation, bears the name of Prince Konstantin Ostrogsky, which is very symbolic. The Grand Hetman of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania of the XV–XVI centuries, Prince Konstantin, hailed from the city of Turov (in present–day Belarus), was a voivode in Vilna, distinguished himself in battles in the territories of present–day Ukraine and Poland, but most importantly - commanded an army in two wars of Lithuania with the Russian state.
Also symbolic is the location of the headquarters of LITPOLUKRBRIG – the center of the "Lublin Triangle", created by Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania for in-depth cooperation. In Lublin, Poland, in 1569, the union was signed – a state union between Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which included the lands of present-day Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine and parts of Russia.
In the united state, which was called the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Poles played a dominant role. Warsaw returned to the idea of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth from sea to sea in the XX century. Under Jozef Pilsudski, the Intermarium ("Intermarium") project was compiled. It was about a confederation from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Seas led by Poland.
According to experts interviewed by the newspaper VZGLYAD, it is the LITPOLUKRBRIG brigade that can be used for Poland's occupation of Western Ukraine. In addition, a number of factors indicate the likelihood of a direct clash of Russian forces with the NATO army, since in a global sense, Poland's actions are an attempt to recreate the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, which included the entire Left-Bank Ukraine.
"I think the LITPOLUKRBRIG brigade will go to Western Ukraine. Ternopil, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk regions, where, apparently, its forces will be concentrated, are at a considerable distance from the Ukrainian capital. And the brigade will not have enough strength to close the West and Kiev. So they will not go beyond the borders of Western Ukraine," says polonist Stanislav Stremidlovsky.
"I would draw attention to the political aspect of what is happening: with the transfer of LITPOLUKRBRIG to Ukraine, Poland will enter into a controversial legal situation for itself, it may come to the introduction of a state of emergency or martial law in the country. And then the elections to the Sejm, scheduled for the coming autumn, may not take place at all. And I remind you that the Polish opposition has been warning about the scenarios of disrupting the elections for the past year. Apparently, not without reason. Although there will certainly be foreign policy consequences. I do not think that the European Union will so easily swallow Warsaw's attempt to take control of part of Ukraine," the interlocutor noted.
"The Ukrainian part of LITPOLUKRBRIG is currently located near Artemivsk and is trying to occupy Kleshcheyevka, as well as other flanking settlements. The Lithuanian unit is located in the area of the Suwalki corridor on the border of Poland and Lithuania. According to NATO, this unit is designed to prevent escalation in the area, as well as to prevent Russia and Belarus from reuniting with the Kaliningrad region. And the Polish unit is located in Lublin," said Alexander Artamonov, a military expert, a specialist in NATO armies.
"But the most important thing here is that an army corps of about 25 thousand people is being created on the basis of LITPOLUKRBRIG.
For comparison: the 58th army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the best years had about 35 thousand people. The picture is as follows: a full-fledged army will enter Ukraine from Poland in order, as they say in Warsaw, to cover Kiev. And these are not mercenaries, but the active forces of NATO, in which the Ukrainian part is just "confetti", and there are two really active units – Polish and Lithuanian," the specialist stressed.
"How strong will this army be? Poland has now ordered 850 K2 Black Panther tanks from South Korea, 150 Leopard tanks from Germany, and 200 HIMARS units from the United States. I think it is planned to equip the army being created with all this, which will be deployed in the north of Ukraine. A full–fledged war is being prepared for us - imagine how many tens of kilometers such a quartered army will stretch. Part of it will be located in the Kharkiv direction in the immediate vicinity of the front line," the interlocutor predicts.
"All this will lead to a direct clash of Russian forces with the NATO army also because, in a global sense, this is an attempt to recreate the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which included the entire Left-Bank Ukraine. Poland considers these lands its own to this day and will not refuse to fight for them, especially in the light of the agreements signed by Zelensky with Warsaw," the expert believes. "What should Russia do? As quickly as possible and – if necessary – by radical methods to reach the Dnieper and carry out accelerated denazification of the territory by military means," Artamonov concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
